- Location
- Europe
Hillary might be unlikable and disliked but I think you're overestimating her disapproval ratings. Hillary's campaign was damaged a lot during the democratic primaries, particularly in regards to the DNC controversy. Then there were the email scandal which isn't really a thing until 2016(I think). At this point in time, she looked like a far stronger candidate than her current position would suggest.I'm not sure that works. This primary race is unusual precisely because the presumptive Democratic opponent is Hillary -- who is so decidedly unlikable and disliked that even someone like Cruz has a decent shot of winning in a head-to-head match-up. Saying "Pataki is the better candidate because he can win" won't do much to sway a politically astute observer like Laxalt. Reuniting the Reagan coalition might fly, but that's what every political candidate promises. We have to show how we can deliver on that promise.
In regards to Cruz, it's true that he has a chance at winning against Hillary, since Hillary does have a lot of baggage and there's a great deal of dissatisfaction with the establisment and the status quo. However, Cruz isn't going to win a lot of supporters based on his charisma or looks and his target demographic, the evangelicals, are largely based in already safe Republican territory. This weakens his prospects against Hillary who has a lot of support in swing states like Virginia and North Carolina. A comparison here between a guy like Reagan who was able to swing previously life-time democrats and Cruz here is apt. Who is Cruz going to convince to vote for him that isn't already a Republican or at least leaning Republican?
Pataki meanwhile has significant support amongst Latinos(our roll of 100 might come in handy here), which is very important in Florida, and he has the charisma to appeal to the working class in states like Ohio. This places him in a far better position than Cruz who has greater appeal to the base but less to to the general population. To say than "a politically astute observer like Laxalt" should not consider whether Cruz and Pataki has the same chance of winning against Hillary and factor that into his decision is simply wrong.
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