Introduction
- Pronouns
- He/Him
"'My name is Ozymandias, king of kings;
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away."
— "Ozymandias", Percy Bysshe Shelley
Point of Divergence
In 1974, Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina discovered that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had a devastating effect on the Earth's ozone layer, following the work of other pioneers in the field of atmospheric chemistry. By the 1970s and 1980s, awareness of the growing "ozone hole" had led to decisive action by governments worldwide, culminating in the global ratification of the Montreal Protocol in 1987 that helped curb the use of CFCs and eventually, other similar chemicals. This means that today, the ozone layer is expected to recover by 2050.
But, say, Rowland never took a position at UC Irvine in 1964, and thus he and Molina never meet. If that influential 1974 paper is never published, what could happen? Well, other theories besides CFCs could be used to explain the growing ozone hole[1], which means that CFCs might not have been the widely accepted theory until much later.
Icarus describes such a world. By the time the reason the ozone hole is worsening is discovered, the political window for action to happen is fast closing. Thus, the climate continues to steadily worsen, and by the 2010s, vast swathes of the world are uninhabitable as governments continue to drag their feet on meaningful ozone and climate legislation.
[1] For example, proposed theories included changes in Antarctic atmospheric circulation, malignant effects of nitrous oxide, or chemical changes as a result of cloud particles. See "Chapter 11 Section 1".
The Timeline
Most updates will be maps or graphics detailing the situation in the early 2020s, but there may be a few text additions.
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away."
— "Ozymandias", Percy Bysshe Shelley
CNN.com front page, September 1, 2021.
Point of Divergence
In 1974, Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina discovered that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had a devastating effect on the Earth's ozone layer, following the work of other pioneers in the field of atmospheric chemistry. By the 1970s and 1980s, awareness of the growing "ozone hole" had led to decisive action by governments worldwide, culminating in the global ratification of the Montreal Protocol in 1987 that helped curb the use of CFCs and eventually, other similar chemicals. This means that today, the ozone layer is expected to recover by 2050.
But, say, Rowland never took a position at UC Irvine in 1964, and thus he and Molina never meet. If that influential 1974 paper is never published, what could happen? Well, other theories besides CFCs could be used to explain the growing ozone hole[1], which means that CFCs might not have been the widely accepted theory until much later.
Icarus describes such a world. By the time the reason the ozone hole is worsening is discovered, the political window for action to happen is fast closing. Thus, the climate continues to steadily worsen, and by the 2010s, vast swathes of the world are uninhabitable as governments continue to drag their feet on meaningful ozone and climate legislation.
[1] For example, proposed theories included changes in Antarctic atmospheric circulation, malignant effects of nitrous oxide, or chemical changes as a result of cloud particles. See "Chapter 11 Section 1".
The Timeline
Most updates will be maps or graphics detailing the situation in the early 2020s, but there may be a few text additions.
