Hmmph... this junior is a good seed [Cultivation Management Quest]

[occipitallobe]

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[adamashield]

[X] Plan The Scorpionquisition is Always Unexpected

Mostly because these are 'cultivators' that have different needs and ways to be use by the clan. and because we have a lot of poison/food/magical engineering specialist to use when those poor scorpions (never thought that I would say this and mean it) die while helping the clan. plus it will save elites.

 

[moon-llama]

[X] Plan The Scorpionquisition is Always Unexpected

 

[nothingtoseehere]

How am I taking it out of context by literally asking you for that very context? You said we'd basically get another Nascent soul, I asked you what you thought that looked like.

So what you're saying is that you expect to be able to call her as a pocket mercenary if we get her deep enough into her pocket?

I dont see that happening, based on what we've seen of her thought process.

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Sure, not in such mercenary terms. But having her drift over from the Righteous side to us and being a proper vassal NS is what we're gambling on if we fund the FDG, and she is one to appreciate and return gratitude. It's not implausible.

 

[TehChron]

Sure, not in such mercenary terms. But having her drift over from the Righteous side to us and being a proper vassal NS is what we're gambling on if we fund the FDG, and she is one to appreciate and return gratitude. It's not implausible.

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I mean...yeah but not anytime soon, while shes rebuilding the Flood dragon gang and helping out in the Great Battlefield

That's time wed be better off investing in stuff to undercut whatever Old Jingshen is scheming so we can make a play at desert Hegemony.

One way or another we are on a time limit before Jingshen get their third Nascent soul and force the issue on us.

 

[uri]

[X] Plan Buckle The Hell Down

 

[TehChron]

I'm still legit wondering if people think that a one time use purchase of 20 wealth is such a great deal

Like, compared to the other options on the table I just genuinely dont see it

 

[Simon_Jester]

Why bother with the half payment, when it will be less effective than saving up and just paying in full next turn? That's the point of only spending 14 wealth on trial prep after all.

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Because it probably won't be less effective. Paying a 15-wealth lump sum next turn isn't going to have as good an effect as spending 15 wealth this turn, as @occipitallobe already told us. Sort of like how the Ten Million Forts are going to cost more to build all at once now than they would have cost if we'd started construction last turn and finished this turn.

Investing money sooner rather than later often has multiplier effects in its own right, so making a down payment on Miss Messy Flood Gang Nascent Soul's loyalty sooner rather than later is helpful.

Because if Jingshen can go to the Elder of Day and hire him for 20 wealth to have him assist it beating us up we are totally screwed. Having the Strength Purity Sect tell their Righteous allies that the Golden Devils have been helping so don't fuck with them to much stops that from happening.

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I very much doubt that any clan's lone Nascent Soul is going to hire out as a mercenary for that kind of money.

Because the Saber Palace is, as I understand it, down to one Nascent Soul. Coming out to fight against the fixed defenses of the Golden Devils is a risky proposition for the Elder of Day. It might be some kind of trap for the Elder of Day (sure, everyone hates the Golden Devils, but a lot of people hate the Saber Palace too). It might be a plan to let the Elder of Day trigger all the dangerous traps and shit while the Jingshen Nascent Souls hang back. Manuel Konstantinos might have some kind of ridiculous artifact in reserve that makes the whole operation unreasonably dangerous without any of them knowing it.

The existential threat here is from the Jingshen clan getting three Nascent Souls permanently aligned with them, while we have only one Nascent Soul willing to fight in our defense. That's an insurmountable military advantage for us. To survive the next century or two, we need to accomplish at least one, preferably two or three, of the following:

1) Prevent the Jingshen from raising up a third Nascent Soul in the first place.
2) Recruit or raise up a second Nascent Soul of our own, because 3:2 odds in the heart of our fixed defenses are way more viable than 3:1 odds.
3) Create a situation where if the Jingshen do raise up a third Nascent Soul, the expense is unsustainable for them even in a short amount of time, forcing them to recalculate their entire strategy.

Earning goodwill from other Righteous powers doesn't help us much here, because no matter what we do to be useful to the other Righteous powers, they won't stop the Jingshen Clan, specifically and personally, from just kicking our asses themselves.

 

[TehChron]

@Simon_Jester you already made that post last page, I think

 

[BadAtScreenNames]

This choice of language prejudices me to vote against the forts. Recasting a "let's not do the maximal thing for X" plan as a "why do you want to cripple X" plan immediately rings my alarm bells. I will now vote against the forts.

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TehChron isn't advocating for the forts, he's advocating for the Scorpquisition. Forts are plan buckle the hell down.

So I see that theres a lot of support behind Buckle the Hell Down, and something I want to ask about its support.

Occis confirmed that the 20 Wealth wed be sinking into the Forts is only useful for this specific Trial.

Do you still think its worthwhile?

Because if it's getting us up to speed more quickly that you're after, the 10 Wealth cache action does something similar for about half the cost.

Click to shrink...

Yes, it's still worthwhile. As Occi clarified already on discord, the forts provide a buff to each group in the trials, qc most of all. The rest of the plan trains up the clan to maximise chances of survival. Getting back up to speed is less helpful than not losing speed in the first place.

 

[uri]

I'm still legit wondering if people think that a one time use purchase of 20 wealth is such a great deal

Like, compared to the other options on the table I just genuinely dont see it

Click to shrink...

I don't think the forts are the beast option, I just don't want to attack the jingsanthis turn.

 

[Simon_Jester]

@Simon_Jester you already made that post last page, I think

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I made part of that post last page. I think I removed the duplicated bits- could be confused or wrong about that though.

Why would Old Jingshen hire the dude that almost had his daughter killed and most recently backstabbed the entirety of the Righteous powers in the middle of a Nascent level fight to save his own Sect?

Why would Old Jingshen assume that the same thing wouldnt happen again, this time to his own detriment?

The word of the Divine Saber Palace is less than trash right now.

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To be fair, the Elder of Day was dealing with an attack on his own stronghold, as I recall. What really fucked over the plan was that the Demonic alliance was fielding five Nascent Souls in an operation where the Righteous Powers only fielded two. That gave them the numbers to present an overwhelming threat that the Elder of Day had to respond to, taking the planned reinforcemnts out of action and leaving Yao Zhihao outnumbered two to one.

???

How am I taking it out of context by literally asking you for that very context? You said we'd basically get another Nascent soul, I asked you what you thought that looked like.

So what you're saying is that you expect to be able to call her as a pocket mercenary if we get her deep enough into her pocket?

I dont see that happening, based on what we've seen of her thought process.

Click to shrink...

Yao Zhihao has already fought on our behalf as a favor in exchange for services rendered, because it was Manuel who helped guard her during her own tribulations to ascend to Nascent Soul. In exchange, she agreed to, like... guard the Scorpion Road, or harass someone we didn't like, or something, for a while.

She identifies as a bandit chief- that is to say, a leader of semi-nomadic warriors who are driven by opportunism and the profit motive, as opposed to the desire to secure a large territory. Which from our point of view is perfect.

No, it will

I think someone got that clarified via discord.

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Paying 7 wealth now and 8 wealth next turn is less effective than paying 15 wealth now. That is confirmed.

The problem is that paying 15 wealth next turn is ALSO less effective than paying 15 wealth now. Compare and contrast to the situation with the Ten Million Forts- they cost more do do now than they did if we'd started last turn.

If you'd said "I don't see why we should spend 10 wealth on them now and 5 wealth next turn when we could just spend 15 wealth next turn," now you'd be saying "well shit," because this turn it costs 20 wealth to get the same result.

The hope here is that we can spend 7 now and 10 next turn (for instance) to get the same effect we'd get by spending 15 now OR 20 next turn. Something like that.

I mean...yeah but not anytime soon, while shes rebuilding the Flood dragon gang and helping out in the Great Battlefield

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Why would she be helping in the Great Battlefield? Her gang's been smashed to pieces, she herself got mutilated after her backup bailed on her in the middle of an operation. She has every reason to just fuck off and do whatever she wants like an endearingly nasty version of Achilles sulking in his tent.

That's time wed be better off investing in stuff to undercut whatever Old Jingshen is scheming so we can make a play at desert Hegemony.

One way or another we are on a time limit before Jingshen get their third Nascent soul and force the issue on us.

Click to shrink...

If we had Yao on-side, we'd have much less need to worry about the Jingshen having three Nascent Souls. They have two now and can't feel confident of tackling our one if he's behind the fixed defenses of our capital. They won't feel more confident about that when the odds are three-to-two.

TehChron isn't advocating for the forts, he's advocating for the Scorpquisition. Forts are plan buckle the hell down.

Click to shrink...

Well then his "screwing over the Qi Condensation juniors" argument doesn't even make any sense...

 

[Katana1515]

[X] Plan The Scorpionquisition is Always Unexpected
[X] Plan Treat Your Vassals Well

 

[Mochinator]

Just gonna throw a vote.

[X] Plan The Scorpionquisition is Always Unexpected
-[X] Use reminder Wealth for Flood Dragons.

Mainly because it would still have a effect, just that the efficiency rate in terms of Goodwill is less then the 50%. Also because on a more sentimental front, i like the idea of Manuel providing what Aid he could despite the desperate situation for the Clan.

You can write this in. It will be less effective linearly than spending the full amount of money, though. Half the money to Lady Yao will have less than half the effect.

Click to shrink...

It feels like true friendship when your friend is giving all he can spare to aid you selflessly. It's the act of giving that i'm invested in and not the Goodwill generated (though having a WOG that there will be some is nice.) Maybe i'm a sucker for Nakama ala One Piece, but i like the impression it gives off by aiding the Flood Dragons in their Darkest Hour.

EDIT: For anyone interested, part of my decision is very much influnced by the following song in the spoiler that very much sums up Friendship from a certain CN view and on a personal level to me. As in it's something to aspire to but hard to achieve.

Spoiler: Friends

[/MEDIA]

 

[BadAtScreenNames]

Well then his "screwing over the Qi Condensation juniors" argument doesn't even make any sense...

Click to shrink...

I can't really comment on that, being that it's another poster's argument. Just please don't vote *against* the forts based on something with nothing to do with them.

 

[TehChron]

Yes, it's still worthwhile. As Occi clarified already on discord, the forts provide a buff to each group in the trials, qc most of all. The rest of the plan trains up the clan to maximise chances of survival. Getting back up to speed is less helpful than not losing speed in the first place.

Click to shrink...

"Not losing speed in the first place" flat out isnt on the table though?

To be fair, the Elder of Day was dealing with an attack on his own stronghold, as I recall. What really fucked over the plan was that the Demonic alliance was fielding five Nascent Souls in an operation where the Righteous Powers only fielded two. That gave them the numbers to present an overwhelming threat that the Elder of Day had to respond to, taking the planned reinforcemnts out of action and leaving Yao Zhihao outnumbered two to one.

Click to shrink...

Er, I dont think Old Cannibal and.the Bees were coordinating there

Besides, the specifics dont matter in terms of reputation or else our frame job wouldve never stuck in the first place. What matters is the image.

Yao Zhihao has already fought on our behalf as a favor in exchange for services rendered, because it was Manuel who helped guard her during her own tribulations to ascend to Nascent Soul. In exchange, she agreed to, like... guard the Scorpion Road, or harass someone we didn't like, or something, for a while.

She identifies as a bandit chief- that is to say, a leader of semi-nomadic warriors who are driven by opportunism and the profit motive, as opposed to the desire to secure a large territory. Which from our point of view is perfect.

Click to shrink...

Only if it's on demand. Which is where I'm drawing my doubt from.

Because we've had zero control over the opportunities we've had to do favors for her.

Paying 7 wealth now and 8 wealth next turn is less effective than paying 15 wealth now. That is confirmed.

Click to shrink...

Er, I'd quote it if Mobile werent singularly awful for those purposes, but no. Occi straight up confirmed that it wouldnt be the 1:1 conversion rate you're hoping for.

Which is expected because of course there'd be a trade off. Otherwise why would we even consider paying the 15 wealth this turn?

Why would she be helping in the Great Battlefield? Her gang's been smashed to pieces, she herself got mutilated after her backup bailed on her in the middle of an operation. She has every reason to just fuck off and do whatever she wants like an endearingly nasty version of Achilles sulking in his tent.

Click to shrink...

...Why was she on the Great Battlefield in the first place?

To protect the mortals

The threat to them hasnt changed. So she will very likely return.

Well then his "screwing over the Qi Condensation juniors" argument doesn't even make any sense...

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Its literally in the description of the option. I was asking for the rationale behind that trade off.

I feel like you skim over a lot of what's written in various posts.

I can't really comment on that, being that it's another poster's argument. Just please don't vote *against* the forts based on something with nothing to do with them.

Click to shrink...

For crying out loud

[ ] Send the Clan's best Array-Engineers to the Great Battlefield.

Regain +1 Income per turn as the Strength Purity concessions expire. Suffer worse in the Trials, especially among Qi Condensation.

Click to shrink...

It's right there how are you missing it

 

[Simon_Jester]

I don't like that the only plan that spends on the Flood Dragon Gang is one that does other problematic things. Let's do all kinds of batshit crazy stuff at once!

[X] Plan Scorpionquisitors and Gangsters and Mortal Snitches, Oh My!
-[X] Don't
-[X] Raiding Jingshen Territories: Haoshen and Wangshen Forts- Better to weaken an enemy. Send teams of cultivators to go raid an enemy for resources and to kill them where possible. Minor conflicts, with minor rewards. At best, you can seize minor territorial gains. This will worsen your relations, of course. Gains widely variable Wealth (0-10, excluding crits). May seize territory and gain Income in extreme cases. Loses Cultivators - around 5,000 Qi Condensation cultivators, 50 Foundation Establishment cultivators, and potentially 1 Core Formation Elder.
-[X] Lecturing - You can simply lecture your many juniors on cultivation. Spend your time helping them grow, using less resources and ensuring better growth for the Clan.
-[X] Broadcast from the Mortal Artifact Network (6 Wealth)
-[X] Build the Scorpion Cavalry Brigade (8 Wealth)
-[X] Refound the Flood Dragon Gang (reduced) (7 Wealth)

This lays at least SOME groundwork for aligning the Flood Dragon Gang with us, while still spending most of our Wealth on options explicitly designed to prepare us for the trials using unconventional warfare.

The Scorpion Cavalry may also be useful as raiders, but will have the advantage of being fast on the strategic response level, something the Fifth Sea cultivators of the Trials aren't ready for because Bronze Devils tend to be slow.

And the Mortal Artifact Network, well, we know why that's a good idea.

 

[BadAtScreenNames]

"Not losing speed in the first place" flat out isnt on the table though?

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Fine, losing less speed in the first place. The forts, as I stated before, provide a buff to our trial rolls. We add a Manuel lecture action and a clan focus to training to that to prep even further. It's a thoroughly reasonable position to take.

For crying out loud

It's right there how are you missing it

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I was not defending that option. I was trying to keep @Simon_Jester from categoricslly voting against the forts based on an argument that had nothing to do with the forts.

 

[Simon_Jester]

Just gonna throw a vote.

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Vote for my plan instead!

Er, I dont think Old Cannibal and.the Bees were coordinating there

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I mean, maybe they weren't, but I think that a lot of people are going to at least consider that as a relevant factor. Even if it was an accident, it's a pretty good excuse on the Elder of Day's part.

Er, I'd quote it if Mobile werent singularly awful for those purposes, but no. Occi straight up confirmed that it wouldnt be the 1:1 conversion rate you're hoping for.

Which is expected because of course there'd be a trade off. Otherwise why would we even consider paying the 15 wealth this turn?

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Because I'm not hoping for a 1:1 conversion. I'm hoping that spending 7 now and 10 later will be equivalent to spending 15 now (which is less) or 20 later (which is more but later).

...Why was she on the Great Battlefield in the first place?

To protect the mortals

The threat to them hasnt changed. So she will very likely return.

Click to shrink...

So you're seeing her as an idealistic defender of the people? Like, a Robin Hood type?

Its literally in the description of the option. I was asking for the rationale behind that trade off.

I feel like you skim over a lot of what's written in various posts.

For crying out loud

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I apologize.

I sincerely apologize.

It's not so much skimming, as a tendency to forget pertinent details while concentrating on other details.

Like, I saw "send over the engineers" as such obvious garbage it didn't even register on me all the reasons why it was garbage. I missed the plan drafting phase, and I got mixed up and I'm sorry.

 

[TehChron]

Fine, losing less speed in the first place. The forts, as I stated before, provide a buff to our trial rolls. We add a Manuel lecture action and a clan focus to training to that to prep even further. It's a thoroughly reasonable position to take.

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Nothing about implying that the losses to Qi Condensation from sending off the engineers was entirely a fabrication?

Well, either way I didnt say it wasnt a reasonable assumption to take

I just think its wasteful to spend twice as much for a more dubious result, when the Scorpions and Mortal networks impact all three brackets and for cheaper than a similar one-turn benefit

A preference for preventative measures is perfectly reasonable.

It just doesnt do anything to help address the issues with the Jingshen which their weird behavior is setting off alarm bells for. So I guess it all comes down to a short vs long term perspective on what you want to take preventative measures against.

The trials which will always be a problem, or the more existential one that the Jingshen making a play at Hegemony represents

you're seeing her as an idealistic defender of the people? Like, a Robin Hood type?

Click to shrink...

...we have two interludes from her perspective. If I'm wrong on my read of her, I'm all ears for the evidence to the contrary.

 

[BadAtScreenNames]

Nothing about implying that the losses to Qi Condensation from sending off the engineers was entirely a fabrication?

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I never said it was. I *explicitly didn't comment on that strand of argument.*

Well, either way I didnt say it wasnt a reasonable assumption to take

I just think its wasteful to spend twice as much for a more dubious result, when the Scorpions and Mortal networks impact all three brackets and for cheaper than

A preference for preventative measures is perfectly reasonable.

It just doesnt do anything to help address the issues with the Jingshen which their weird behavior is setting off alarm bells for. So I guess it all comes down to a short vs long term perspective on what you want to take preventative measures against.

The trials which will always be a problem, or the more existential one that the Jingshen making a play at Hegemony represents

Click to shrink...

That's also not unreasonable, but given Occi generally balanced the quest expenditures well, we can also safely assume that the forts will be more likely to be effective.

Secondly, just because the trials occur regularly doesn't make it any less threatening. Given how badly we got our asses kicked last time, and how much we've gained since, it seems reasonable to linvest properly in defensive measures. Yes, it's a gamble, but so is sending our cultivators on raids right before the trisls when we're likely to lose people anyway.

 

[Quest]

So you're seeing her as an idealistic defender of the people? Like, a Robin Hood type?

Click to shrink...

She is that, I think. IIRC we won over her group as an ally because we defended a weak power against the Devil Bees even when the righteous path abandoned them. That's also what won us the Saber Palace as enemies because we showed them up.

 

[TehChron]

That's also not unreasonable, but given Occi generally balanced the quest expenditures well, we can also safely assume that the forts will be more likely to be effective.

Secondly, just because the trials occur regularly doesn't make it any less threatening. Given how badly we got our asses kicked last time, and how much we've gained since, it seems reasonable to linvest properly in defensive measures. Yes, it's a gamble, but so is sending our cultivators on raids right before the trisls when we're likely to lose people anyway.

Click to shrink...

I think the issue is that you're somehow coming to the conclusion that I'm writing off preparing for the Trials rather than the reality of me trying to spin plates.

I never said it wouldnt be a gamble either way. I just don't believe that sinking everything into defending against only one threat that isnt very dynamic and is unlikely to kill us isnt as prudent as preparing for that and working on the actual threat capable of ending us.

Because for however historically bad the previous two Trials were...we've still proven capable of bouncing back from strength to strength given what we've dealt with the past ten turns.

The Jingshen getting a third Nascent eclipses all that because it represents escalation beyond our current ability to match.

We simply cant afford to ignore the Jingshen. Nor can we ignore the Trials either.

Thus, the Scorpionquisition.

 

[thefoolswriter]

The truth of the matter

Carvos was fighting with Hera but he was not paying much attention to something within him. This annoyed him as Hera was fighting four steps above him to teach him how fighting smart would help him overcome stronger opponents, something that he needed to do if he was going to go to the secret realm. But this feeling of an epiphany that was upon him felt was important and Hera had told him that these were vital to growing stronger. So he followed the feeling to a question that steered at him like a gate of a fortress.

Why do you fight boomed? The question reverberated through his being. Because I like to fight to dance on the border of death and survive came his immediate answer. To which another question took its place.

What purpose do you fight, why do you only seek your equals or the strong why not challenge anything you come across. Corvus ponded on this he knew that everything fights the beasts and the birds and the people for many things. They fight for food shelter survival wealth-power justice revenge These are the most obvious reasons for why they fight as well as the many justifications for it.

But the result is the same: they grow stronger from the clash, maybe wiser. The elements as well clash and they have from the beginning of time waxing and meaning in the attempts to overcome but never subsuming. From the incredibly large to incredibly small, each aspect of the elements clashing growing stronger with each battle no matter how small.


But this was flawed for not everyone got strong by fighting mortals who got crippled by losing limbs, an eye disease that permanently weakened them, the elements sometimes lost permanently never to return to a place river beds would sometimes dry up altogether in the face of the harsh sun. Seas would take permanently from the earth and the wind held nothing so it would neither gain nor lose. Fire by its very nature god to win or it would vanish.

He only got stronger because his Way of Battle made it so this was just another justification he had made. To why he fought the strong was simple to him, those weaker than he gave him nothing, But that was not why he did not fight the weak the answer felt hollow. So he looked at it differently than a memory a more recent one came to him


. He had been travelling back to the Fortress of dawn through a village that he had saved from a pack of large paw sand hyenas. It had been a fun fight and the hyena's teamwork had made it extremely difficult to land a blow. As one of the spirit beasts would attack so their fellow could get away and towering their target down slowly through blood loss.


It had been a good experience against enemies who used teamwork and as usual, Carvos had refused payment before wandering off. When Carvos passed through that village and it had changed, the road had been paved and the wooden walls had been replaced with stone. The building's quality had improved greatly. Carvos paid no attention to that as he was noting how many cute children there were. The children were playing with a ball there, laughter and squeals of joy filled the air. It was then that in rare thoughtfulness that because of him that there were more cute children.

He knew why there were not more children and the battles of the strong killed mortals in droves. Or they were devoured by a bloodbath cultivator that had started to walk the path. At that moment Carvos made a promise to himself that he would make a world that could have more smiling children each day free from the strong who would take that smile. To pave the way in the corpses of the strong for such a world to build the foundations would be of the strong

With that Carvos had his answer he challenged the strong not just for fun but to devourer them to add to his strength so that children and cute things such as Hera have a place in this world. So they would not be crushed by anyone, not even heaven and if he had to destroy even that he would happily do it and have fun along the way.


It was then that Hera punch sent him flying, breaking him out of his revolution bringing Carvos back to reality. As quickly as ever he got back up and charged at Hera with renewed abandon despite the usual thrill of battling a strong opponent Carvos noted a rather nice and knowing smile on Hera. That night before going to bed he wrote down the words of the revelation in his head so that he would not forget them. As sleep took Carvos the words of his Doa whispered to him in the voice that sounded like that of a dog all snarling barking and howling.


I pave the way so more children can play. So more can join them the next day. I devour the strong so they have a world to belong. I bring war violence and gore so There can be no more and have fun along the way as I bring about a brighter next day. For from the dark with a monstrous sound comes the slavering war hound who paves the way for civilization to win the day so the little children can play.

The day will come where all war is done beholding the rising sun and evil overrun crying for what has come denying the evil that it has done for that has wrought for it has been for nought for they felt the terror beheld sound of the furious war hound.


@ReaderOfFate omake with the poam

 

[pblur]

[X] Plan Buckle The Hell Down
-[X] No
-[X] Training Soldiers - Raising Disciples to higher Realms is all well and good, but training them to be perfect members of Formations is better. Ensure your Clan is trained and ready for war. Your readiness to go to war will increase significantly, though this fades over time.
-[X] Lecturing - You can simply lecture your many juniors on cultivation. Spend your time helping them grow, using less resources and ensuring better growth for the Clan.
-[X] Prepare the Ten Million Forts (20 Wealth this turn)

 

[BadAtScreenNames]

I think the issue is that you're somehow coming to the conclusion that I'm writing off preparing for the Trials rather than the reality of me trying to spin plates.

Click to shrink...

Actually, no. I can see your plan has trial mitigation in it. When I raised the issue previously, @ReaderOfFate pointed out I'd missed the mortal network. The only real issue I have is that you're using a raid action which will lose us cultivators when we are already going to lose them. It's why I suggested the alternative write-in, which grants a similar effect with a lower chance of losses as it's focused on deniability.

We simply cant afford to ignore the Jingshen. Nor can we ignore the Trials either.

Thus, the Scorpionquisition.

Click to shrink...

I get that. I get that a third jingshen nascent is a serious problem. But I'd rather gamble and deal with that next turn when we can devote ourselves to it than try and do two things at once and risk fucking up both, especially given how badly trials have hit us in the past, AND have so much to lose.