HALF PAST NOON: Ronald Reagan and the rise of the American Conservative Party

1 - Prologue: HALF PAST NOON, Part 1: Now or Never

TransUral Empire

Mess with the bull, you get the horse
Location
The Isle of Pen
Hi guys, this is TransUral Empire from Alternate History. I figured I would crosspost my TL here as well. Both because there are people who wouldn't see it otherwise and because I like to self advertise. If you have any comments/questions/whatever let me know, I'll be updating the TL here ASAP after I update on Alternate History so it will be posted in tandem between the two sites so you guys won't be asking or saying anything that's been heard before.

Also, apparently I have too many images in this post so the less important images are going to be culled from each post. I'll leave a note as to what it was that I removed. Outside of that nothing will be changed.

Everything past this point is from the opening post:



I was going to ask myself questions like in a TLIAD format but I decided against it. So, here it goes:

I first started to conceive of this over 3 months ago. I wanted to do a Cold War TL. But I knew I had issues with actually finishing TLs. So, as a result, I decided to plan it out thoroughly and finish it before posting.

I actually wrote most of it out during NaNoWriMo and continued since then. However, it's not 100% finished as of writing this. I wanted to get it out before the new year to show it off but I would need to work at a crazy pace to finish it up in the time left before the new year. I have about 2/3 of it done and written already so I figure I'll just plop them out once a week or so and work on what's left. Every post is about 4k to 5k words and there's about 20 of them planned out.

This TL's POD is a stronger reaction against Jimmy Carter and Reagan in '76 from their parties. As a result, the Conservative Party that was apparently rumored to be in the works if Reagan didn't get the nomination becomes real, oh so real. It capitalizes off of the perceived corruption in the government and the death rattles of the FDR coalition and the rest is for you to read...

Also please excuse my graphic design and formatting. My strong point is the writing not the visual aides.

Half Past Noon: Ronald Reagan and the rise of the American Conservative Party


------

Prologue: HALF PAST NOON

Stalin and his close confidants in addition to some new guests had been drinking for some time at the Stalin dacha and the sun had fallen long ago. Just as he usually did, Stalin enjoyed toying with his guests more than the drink.

He put the record player on a jaunty tune and smiled. "Come, come. Molotov, Zhukov, now you dance!" The general and the diplomat stood up, both too drunk and afraid to protest.

Zhukov naturally assumed the male's position and Molotov was dragged along, stepping in an uncoordinated pattern. Both continued along dancing to the foreign tune.

Stalin clapped and cackled to the clapping approval of the others in the room. Except for Beria. Beria was reticent.

Stalin meandered his way back to his seat next to Beria and poured himself another drink while chuckling. He knocked back the drink and laid back in the chair with a satisfied sigh. It's good to be the King.

The song ended and the pair looked back at the General Secretary. Stalin said nothing and looked around at his guests. He took in every silent second with delight. Stalin could feel their fear for him. They couldn't move even a finger without his command.

Feeling satisfied he nodded. "Once more." He gave a thumbs up.

"Again, again!" shouted out the sycophantic Malenkov. His wholly fake gleeful smile made his fatty neck ripple.

The pair moved the record's hand back to the outer ring and began their awkward dance again. Stalin sat silent. He was observing.

It was in moments like these that the infamous Beria came to love Stalin. Not as one might love a woman, or as one might love a child, but as a dog loves his master. He believed deep down that only he could fully appreciate his master. Only he could love is dark side. His side that he saw only moments earlier relishing the fear of others.

Comrade Stalin could order everyone in the room shot dead. Beria would carry it out in an instant. Just so that he could see his master smile.

It wouldn't be the first time that he went to the extreme for his master. His crowning achievement, better than even the purges, was when he brought Stalin the skull of Adolf Hitler. Oh, the smile on the General Secretary's face that day!

Now if he knew that Beria had simply dug up a grave of some dead Kulak bastard it would be the end of him. But he did it all for Stalin.

For Beria, Stalin was the greatest man to ever live. To survive the Czar, to survive the Civil War, to survive the Jew Trotsky, to survive the Nazis! He took the Soviets from the gates of Moscow to the ruins of Berlin. Has there ever been a greater conqueror in history? Caesar? Napoleon? Alexander? The Great or the Greek? Both!

Oh, if only he loved him back.

Beria crossed his legs and sighed.

"Four eyes." the drunken Stalin leaned over, "I'll tell you a secret."

Beria didn't know if he wanted to know any of Stalin's secret. That was a great way to get killed. But to Stalin he couldn't say no. "A secret?"

"Yes," he leaned in even closer and his hot breath fogged up Beria's glasses. "it's about how the world works."

"How the world works?" Beria perked up. Now he was interested.

"Yes." Stalin chuckled, it was nice to see that even an inhuman rat like Beria could find some enjoyment at the party. "You see Lavrentiy, human societies are like the sun."

"The sun?"

"The sun cycle. In the early day the light is hard to see, you have to strain your eyes to see the light. You need to envision it. But after some time the light you envisioned is suddenly there, it's day! But then there comes a point when the sun reaches its highest peak. Midday." Stalin began to nod and Beria nodded along.

The song stopped and the room went silent again. Stalin didn't break eye contact with Beria, he merely moved his hand in a dismissive motion. The music began again for a third time. The awkward, now robotic dancing began once again. The audience clapped and laughed like they had before without missing a beat.

"And when it's Midday, when it's noon, the sun is bright. Blindingly bright. You take it for granted. You forget the old days when the sun was faint. But when you reach the peak, there is nothing but decline after that. The sun starts to go down. It starts to get dark. Everyone starts to panic. Before you know it there's no more sun. It's dark."

"And then it's night?" Beria didn't totally follow.

"No, then it's the end of that civilization. That system. Over. No more. If you read Lenin you would know this. Imperialism: The Highest Point of Capitalism!" Stalin had leaned in so much that there was all of a foot of distance between their faces.

Stalin pulled back and leaned in his chair like before. "Or you could just listen to me if you don't want to waste your time."

"I'll listen Comrade Stalin." replied Beria.

The eavesdropping Malenkov leaned in, "You are a new Hegel, Comrade Stalin." he nodded and smiled. The others nodded and clapped along to Malenkov's compliments.

Stalin was silent for a moment and ignored Malenkov's comment. He smiled and said: "And clearly then the Capitalists are at their high point, their midday. They are half past noon, they live in the sun's gaze. But it will be dark soon. And the dawn waits."

------

Part 1: Now or Never

1976 was supposed to be a Democratic year.

The economy was slipping, the sitting President was not elected and pardoned the previous President, the Republican Party was shattered along factional lines with the primarying of President Ford. Ford himself had already been subject to two assassination attempts. Things were looking up for the Democrats. For the first time in almost a decade, blue was a popular color again.

There's no way they could mess this up.

Iowa was a shocker. Defying the expectations of pollsters and the political elite, Jimmy Carter came second in Iowa (the first being Uncommitted).

Carter was from the South and could be politely termed as "more moderate" than other elements in the party. Indeed, Carter's politics angered a good many of the Northern and Western Liberals who had been ascendant in the Democratic Party for over a decade at that point. They would not sit by and see the party wrested from them in such a great year for the Democratic Party. They refused to tolerate the Southern populist.

Carter's win in Iowa was less about an implacable determination, a grand charisma, or anything of the sort. It was to do with vote splitting.

The Liberals of the Democratic Party split their votes between four candidates: Mo Udall, Sargent Shriver, Scoop Jackson, and Birch Bayh. There was also one other candidate – Fred Harris, an oddball from Oklahoma. He "winnowed in" with a surprising third, but he was quickly "winnowed out" and wasn't anything to write home about in the end.

Before Carter, the candidate that was considered strongest was Henry M. "Scoop" Jackson of Washington. "Scoop" as he was popularly known, was a war hawk with close ties to organized labor and other progressive causes. He was strongest on foreign policy, and as a result it was the focus of his campaign. He found a great deal of support from Jewish-Americans whom greatly appreciated his staunch Pro-Israel views, though his foreign policy also hurt him – he had been a supporter of the Vietnam war.

<A Picture of Senator Scoop Jackson giving a speech>
Senator Scoop Jackson: "To maintain peace we must maintain our military might. Only strength can deter aggression."
Regardless of who was the front runner before, after Scoop fell flat in the Pennsylvania primary he was forced to reconsider his campaign. He was out of money and had very little to show for the thousands he had spent up 'till that point. On April 29th Jackson shuttered his campaign unofficially, remaining in the race on the ballot in several states but ultimately not mounting a challenge to Carter in person.

After that, Carter was in front. And it didn't take long for the Liberals to take note of that.

The ABC (Anyone but Carter) movement began not too long after Carter's second victory in New Hampshire, but it took off only after Jackson's campaign stumbled in Pennsylvania. Jerry Brown, Frank Chuch, Mo Udall, Sargent Shriver, and Birch Bayh all got together to discuss how to deny Carter the nomination. Not in a smoke filled room, not even together all at once. But on the phone, and over time.

Ultimately though the agreed upon strategy was as follows: Candidates will run in races that they are sure they will win or no other candidate from the ABC is running in. Candidates from the ABC will not run in races other candidates of the ABC are participating in.

Slowly but surely Carter's lead was chipped away. A race here, a race there. Carter's campaign started slowing down. His momentum was running out. He was falling down.

Carter's outside persona was that of a folksy gentleman. But those who took part in his campaign would know that Carter was controlling, bordering on the point of megalomania. He insisted on micromanaging every detail that he could. As the campaign slowed down, Carter's mood was sour more and more often. Typically damaging his own campaign with rash decisions, alienating key allies in primaries.

It was rough to take part on the campaign, but it was harder for Jimmy in the end. Jimmy Carter's emotional and mental health took a nosedive following a surprise loss in Texas to Lloyd Bentsen. The loss in Indiana just after Texas to the previously withdrawn Bayh threw him for a loop. In the darkest moments of the campaign Carter flirted with the idea that maybe his opponents had their own set of plumbers just like Nixon – but better judgment won out in that fight.

But still, Carter was angry. Angry at the ABC and angry at the Party. He felt that he was being rejected because of his being a Southerner and because he was an outsider to dirty Washington politics. He was right, mostly. He tried his best to find a way to strike back, and called up George Wallace on a lark.

Wallace was a constant vote winner and was roughly the 3rd in the popular vote at that point. If Wallace pulled out and endorsed Carter it would be a significant boon to the Carter's campaign. Maybe a strong enough boon to push Carter over the edge.

Wallace told him to pound sand.

"I'm winning this outright or not at all Jimmy." Carter shook his head when he heard that. Wallace wasn't winning it. And it was starting to look like he wasn't either.

After a close loss in Nebraska the Carter campaign changed gears. Before Carter had run a clean campaign. Nothing dirty and minimal attacks. He wanted to be the simple peanut farmer who had simple and effective ideas. The campaign motto of "Why not the best?" exemplified that feeling. Yes, he did criticize corruption in the government, but he did not criticize his own party yet. After Nebraska he started to.

He improved in the contests since then, people figured all of government was corrupt in some way. He claimed that big wigs in the party were conspiring against him in smoke filled rooms. They couldn't handle someone who was clean, he claimed. But in the end it still wasn't enough to save him or his campaign. No sir.

When he lost a bitterly fought primary against Jerry Brown in California he was no loner able to secure a majority of the delegates. While the convention would be remembered as a contested one, Jimmy and all the other political insiders knew that Carter was not going to find success during the balloting. The other delegates were pledged to members of the ABC, Jackson, or one of the other wackadoos.

Carter gave it one last hurrah at the Convention in New York. If he could get George Wallace to release his delegates then they would (theoretically) go to Carter since he was the closest politically to Wallace out of any other candidate. It could give him the push he needed to win.

Carter approached him when the two managed to get away from the reporters and the bright lights. They were intoxicating and gave those who dreamed of power a special kind of fire in the belly, but for this conversation they felt merely intrusive. Back room politics isn't for the average Joe out there on the convention floor with a stupid little boater hat on.

"Release my delegates?" Wallace said with a smirk, "Mr. Carter the party is the party. Maybe if you knew that you wouldn't've made the mistake of going against it. It plays by rules. And rule 1 is that the party gets what it wants. You ain't it."

"For a fellow Southerner then?"

Wallace's smirk grew into a nasty smile that was more angry than happy. He was still his old self no matter what he claimed out there in public. "Southern honor? Hasn't been something like that for a long time. Long, long time son."

"Then to stop Brown and the Liberals?" said the desperate Carter.

Wallace answered tersely, he didn't have time for games."Try again in 1980. Or go back to farmin' peanuts. Yer choice Jim." Wallace carted himself off. He had important things to do, like stare at Coretta Scott King from across the arena. Every time he saw that woman a twisted feeling filled his gut. He turned his head around. "I have a speech to give. I bid you a-doo."

<A picture of George Wallace in a wheelchair, looking grumpy>
Former Governor George Wallace
Carter was finished. But he wasn't done being angry about it.

The question then was who would be the nominee? Carter's delegates weren't just going away so the candidate had to be chosen carefully and needed to be an acceptable choice for every member of the ABC. If it broke down now, Carter would win. If the ABC failed now, then there would be a party crackup and an independent run. It would be for vanity and it couldn't win but it would endanger the party's chance in the general. And nobody wanted to piss all the political capital Nixon and Ford handed to them down the drain.

So they got together, this time indeed in the stereotypical "smoke filled room" Carter alleged they took part in.

The ensuing conversation lasted about 4 hours and took more than a few cartons of cigarettes between the men and their entourages. Mo Udall made a few jokes despite the tense atmosphere. Brown threatened to walk once but get corralled back in. But they got a candidate they agreed with.

To make a long story short: Birch Bayh was chosen as the nominee. He was from rural Indiana which could counteract Jimmy's rural charm and he only took part in 4 contests so he avoided much of the mud slinging. It was enough for the exhausted group. They had to take a nap, and then enjoy the victory.

The running-mate was to be left up to fate (and personal choice) - as long as it wasn't Carter. So they went with an old favorite rather than anybody newer.

The 1976 Democratic Presidential Ticket: Birch Bayh/John Glenn

------

It was sweltering in Kansas City.

It was the middle of August and the Kemper Arena was packed to the brim with people. Everyone was here to see the end of the contested convention. Ronald Reagan from California gave President Ford a run for his money but it wasn't enough to overcome incumbency outright.

Ford was controversial at best. He pardoned Nixon (who was so blatantly corrupt) and the economy slid into the worst recession since the Great Depression. The fall of Saigon and the policy of detente also mobilized Conservatives and other hawks against Ford. Therefore, Reagan challenged him in the primaries. The Conservative Reagan failed to win the majority of the delegates or the plurality of the popular vote in the primaries. Yet still, Ford did not have enough delegates to win outright on the first ballot.

And so, the schmoozing began.

Reagan, being an actor, was at an advantage in the personal charisma department but even with the best Geritol smile in the world, he was not the sitting President. Ford was able to pull out all the stops to impress those who were on the fence. Flights on Air Force One, expensive meals, indeed even meeting Ford carried benefits as he was the sitting President. Ford was ready and willing to do just about anything to win the nomination. Reagan couldn't compete with Ford in that capacity. Not even close.

Reagan and most of the Conservatives were already testy with Ford and the more Liberal elements but when it came to the platform things got heated. Conservatives, most of which were led by Jesse Helms, attempted to put forward several policy planks. Particularly several that were in outright disagreement with President Ford's own policies.

Ford and the opponents to Reagan fought back hard and preventing most of the planks from coming to pass. The failure of the Human Life Amendment being added to the platform in the wake of Roe V. Wade was a painful failure indeed. Reagan and Helms were furious.

Rumors began to circulate about a new party that would be created if Ford won out over Reagan. It first appeared in the Chicago Tribune as an independent piece, but soon Helms and other Conservative operatives were pushing that narrative in the hopes of scaring Ford or the delegates into submission. Ford and his campaign failed to yield to their threats.

Reagan also considered making a ballsy move of his own: announcing his running-mate early. The plan was to make Liberal Republican Richard Schweiker Reagan's running-mate, causing Ford to lose support of Liberals. It wouldn't be much, but it was thought to be just enough to put Reagan over the top. In the end however, the idea was dropped after political operatives approached Schweiker. Schweiker squashed the idea out of hand, he didn't even know Reagan. After that it was abandoned.

So it would come down to a Hail Mary on the balloting, hoping that the uncommitted delegates were enthused by the vision and personality Reagan brought to the table.

With baited breath, the two factions watched as the balloting commenced. The hot August heat was boiling in that tight space. Everyone was packed in tight and sweating like water fountains. It was the most exciting convention of the 20th century.

Ford breathed a sigh of relief.

1976 RNC 1st Ballot:
Ford: 1,180
Reagan: 1,077
Richardson: 1

Ford had won – but barely.

Reagan got on stage afterwards to give a concession speech. Given Reagan's past as an actor, it is not particularly surprising that Reagan's concession speech was so stirring that it overshadowed Ford's own acceptance speech. Ford was made a fool in victory, his speech looking merely perfunctory compared to Reagan's eloquence in his defeat. Reagan emphasized the values of morality and righteousness but there was no call to party unity like Ford expected. Reagan was still sore from the loss.


A final stab wound? Or will there be more?

And so they proceeded onto the running-mate nomination.

Kit Bond, a more moderate Republican from Missouri was chosen. The result failed to enthuse the already angered Conservatives. Helms and Reagan had a phone call not long after.

"That bastard Ford made us out for fools Ronald. He got all he wanted and we got nothin'. They did us like Carter goddammit!" Helms was enraged from the whole affair and resorted to calling Reagan on a payphone by his hotel to make sure no one was wiretapping him. Nixon had put the fear of conspiracies and 'plumbers' into just about everyone in Washington.

"I know, I'm as angry as you are Jesse. Just as - "

Helms interrupted.

"Angry? Mister Reagan I am outraged! Outraged! I left the Democrats because they were dirty dealers and were becoming goddamn sodomite liberals. If the Republicans can't be the upstandin' party then who can?"

Reagan sighed. Helms was right, for all he was worth. Nixon killed whatever appearance of morality and fastidiousness the GOP had among the average person, but for big-whig Conservatives Ford's brutal and rough victory against Reagan had the same effect twice over.

"If we aren't Republicans then what are we Jesse?"

Jesse Helms chuckled grimly. "We're Conservatives Mister Reagan. Conservatives."

"I suppose that's what we are – but there..." Reagan's mind processed what Helms was trying to imply. "Well I've considered what you're trying to imply before. But I don't know if it's the right time." Reagan had read the news and seen the same articles meant to threaten Ford.

"It's always the right time to be right." Helms was right once again, it was always the right time to be moral and upstanding. For Reagan it was looking like it was now or never. He didn't want to take the risk of challenging Ford again in 1980 or dealing with an incumbent Bayh.

"Now or never." Reagan muttered to himself.

Reagan threw caution to the wind. He felt personally shamed by Ford and alienated in his own party. He felt like he was up against a brick wall...Reagan tabulated every excuse for doing this that he could think of. Lord knows he'd need it when the press got wind of this stunt.

And so the Conservative Party raised its odious orange banners all over the US.


The quick and informal convention assembled in Greensboro North Carolina in late August. They met in the Greensboro Coliseum Complex, a small venue that made the crowds at the convention look much larger than they really were – the press ate it up. As per usual during the early days of the Conservative Party, Reagan's old talents in Hollywood were utilized extensively to the Conservative Party's benefit.

The keynote speaker was decided to be jilted Democrat Jimmy Carter. Mr. Peanut railed hard against the Democrats and the Republicans with an uncharacteristic vigor, something augmented to his public persona since the ABC did him over. The old Jimmy was over, he wasn't spiteful and angry all the time but he was becoming a finger pointer – for better or worse.

<A picture of Jimmy Carter from his days as governor of Georgia>
Former Governor Jimmy Carter: "No more DC swindlers! Good government for a good society!"
Carter railed against both the GOP and his own party. Both were corrupt beyond measure, both were out of touch beyond measure. American needed someone like Ronald Reagan. He was a cowboy so he knew what it was like to be a real man in the field. "Not as much as a peanut farmer, but gosh darn it all he sure ain't no DC swindler!"

Once again, the press ate it up. The drama was juicy, so juicy.

Conservatives of both parties announced defections and with each defection the news media hyped the party up more and more. The names of the defected were announced in a grand rigmarole chant for the media, to make sure they knew what narrative to report. And for fun. Ultimately these defections were not nearly as numerous as the press hyped up. Most were from the House, where Congressmen were free to be more radical. Where the new party got the most defections and declared candidates was actually on the local level. It was a part of Pete Domenici's plan.

"Our political revolution to make America great again will start from the bottom! Yes, you out there you can win a spot on your local school board, or as a judge, or as a sheriff, or in the state house. We'll sweep the lowest rungs of the political system and then we'll go up to Congress, and then up to the Presidency! And then to the Supreme Court!"

The situation got "so bad" (once again, the severity of defections was over emphasized by the press) in the South for the Democrats that Bayh was asked felt if the Democrats were Conservatives or Liberals and replied: "Me? I'm a Liberal." Conservatives used the phrase as a beating stick against GOP and Democrat holdouts in the South for an entire generation. For whatever reason, it just stuck.

The only important to figure thing out beyond the platform (which was quickly assembled from the long-standing Conservative wish list) was who to nominate as Reagan's running-mate.

Helms, Reagan, Crane, Laxalt, Domenici and several others tabulated several lists among themselves and by the time of the Convention they came up with several names.

Elliot Richardson was #1 on everyone's list but Domenici's list which had Laxalt as his highest choice. Since he stood against Nixon, he was the new Conservative Party's favorite choice. He would help represent the new, clean, uncorrupt Conservatism they preached. However when he was contacted, he turned down the offer politely. He was currently serving as Ambassador to the UK and had little sympathy for the new Conservative Party.

John Connally was another popular choice among the men. He was shot during the JFK assassination and had since switched to the GOP but occasionally endorsed across the aisle. Ultimately his time as the head of "Democrats for Nixon" made him too associated with Nixon. That, including his age and the potential stain of corruption regarding a milk price decision that led to him allegedly pocketing money. No good. He was stricken from the list.

Billy Graham and his close friend Robert H. Schuller were brought up as well. Though ultimately Graham's close association with Nixon put him lower on the list. Schuller's being from California was a black mark against him as the party heads didn't want a West heavy ticket so his name was tossed as well.

James L. Buckley was one of the popular choices as well. His victory as a third party candidate in New York as a member of the Conservative Party of New York made him a celebrity in Conservative circles. Helms in particular thought him to be the second best choice out of "any fella" in America. The fact that he was from New York was also considered attractive. Balancing east and west was an important goal of the big whigs.

Jack Kemp was another popular choice. He was a former professional football player and a young buck who quickly joined the party. Like Buckley, he was from New York. His status as a celebrity outside of politics like Reagan worried the party heads however, not wanting to turn the party into a party of celebrities. He was earmarked in the future as someone to keep watching however.

William Ruckelshaus was another choice. Since Richardson already turned them down, they figured that Ruckelshaus could be a good choice to easily emphasize the anti-Corruption views of the party. He had actually faced Bayh in the past and lost narrowly – perhaps meaning that Ruckelshaus could help turn Indiana against Bayh. His largest issue however was that he had feuded with the Conservative section of the GOP in the past and would have to be cajoled into joining the ticket. Perhaps too much work for a backup Richardson.

Jimmy Carter was also considered briefly considering how hard he pushed against the Democratic Party. His being a Democrat was another plus, but he did not seem very interested as a VP and hadn't even joined the party yet despite being the keynote speaker. If Carter was going to be the VP they decided he had to work for it. At the end of the day he had no interest in the position.

Of course, all of the men also had a slew of other names of various politicos near and far. Though none of their names would be little importance this time around.

When it came time for the running-mate, they party heads were in agreement. William Ruckelhaus would be the pick. Reagan personally called him and Ruckelhaus agreed to be his running-mate. At the Convention he was selected via acclaim, leaving a small crew of Connolly supporters claiming that Connolly had actually won but that little controversy ultimately led to nothing.

And so the general election came around and an unholy mess awaited us all.

------

Coming into the General Election, many were not expecting an amazing showing from the Conservative Party. Having formed in the wake the GOP Convention, the Conservative Party was had to work to get its name on ballots, get candidates, and get money for their various elections that were occurring. All at the same time. It was simply too much for the newborn Conservative National Committee (Henceforth known as CNC). Organizing responsibility in the early days fell to Paul Laxalt, a close friend of Reagan and Domenici. He was known as a taskmaster albeit a skilled one.

Seeing the chaos in the CNC, Laxalt made an erudite decision. The Party will focus on the Presidential race before all others. Recruiting candidates will be minimized, and all monies acquired by the CNC directly (not concerning the individual races) will be put in the Reagan/Ruckelhaus war chest. Laxalt believed that much of America was sympathetic to the Party's views and therefore a Presidential win was possible. If Reagan was in the White House, then defections would increase and Congressional races would be easier to fund raise and organize.

Important members of the Conservative Party circa 1976:
- Former Governor Ronald Reagan: Presidential Candidate for the party.

- Senator Paul Laxalt: Close personal friend of Reagan and Demenici's. Unoffical head of the CNC.

- Senator Jesse Helms: The architect of the Party and official Senate parliamentarian leader. He's become known as an domineering leader and has gained some resentment from within the party.

- Senator James L. Buckley: The famous congressman from New York. Chafes under Helms' influence in the senate.

- Representative Phil Crane: The leader of the party in the House of Representatives. Known for his full throated defense of the party split in a speech given in Congress.

- Senator Pete Domenici: Quickly becoming the Party ideologue, Domenici has espoused the 'ground up' doctrine which promotes focusing on local races and moving up, and the 'new pathway' doctrine which promotes proselytizing to suburbanites and other-izing urban parts of the country. Has had tit for tat disputes with Helms.

- Former Governor Jimmy Carter: Has belatedly joined the party, though he remains unimpressed. Surrogate for the Reagan campaign in the South and Midwest.


The Big 5: The Conservative Party's Powerbrokers and Tacticians
Meanwhile, the GOP focused on getting a respectable result in the election. Ford knew that the pooch was screwed at this point, but he could at least retain his dignity and perhaps even bring the splitters back into the fold. Of course, those two things predicated on the concept that Ford could squeak out a solid 2nd. Ford's pollsters knew that this wasn't happening.

The South and the Midwest almost universally looked grim. The Conservative Party was ascendant in those areas and there was little they could do about it. Out West and in the Mid-Atlantic the Conservative Party was not competitive – but it did nearly cut the Republican Party's base of support in half. The only places Ford polled well was in Maine and Vermont.

The election was a rough affair for the Republicans. Seeing their own party turn on itself was an ugly affair. Congress was a mess of partisan attacks and it wasn't any better on the campaign trail. The election weighed especially hard on Ford. There was no way to reach out to the Democrats. There was no way to reach out to the disgruntled Conservatives. When Ford was out of the spotlights and away from the nosy reporters he spent his time sulking. You won't read it in any history book since it never left Ford's head, but he considered calling Reagan and trying to patch things up personally. He had dreams of reuniting the party and leading it to a great victory over Bayh – though even Ford knew that was a fever dream at that point.

The Democrats focused on furthering their lead. Close states like Michigan and California became major targets for the Democrats and they pushed for victory in those states more than any other. The party itself was ecstatic after the GOP split and the excitement hasn't stopped. 1976 really was their year. They won against Carter, they've basically already won against Ford, and they'll win against Reagan. That's the mantra. That's the chant.

Though Carter supporters, especially in the South weren't happy.

All three sides looked for ways to elevate their profiles above the others. Reagan brought in close movie star friends and other notables as surrogates. Bayh palled around with big name celebrities, Civil Rights leaders, and media darlings. Ford mostly sat and screamed into the ever increasing black void which had taken over his life and political career.

It was no surprise then, when CBS offered a prime time three way televised debate. Now, there had been televised debates before and they were not anything close to being rare like in 1960, but this was to take place only 2 weeks before America would go to the polls. It was billed as THE Presidential debate.

Eugene McCarthy's campaign complained that the debate wasn't including them, but beyond that there was no other complaints. The complaints of the McCarthy campaign, despite being whining, did his campaign a great service and he saw a rise in the polls, much to the chagrin of Bayh.

The debate went about as you would expect. Reagan oozed charisma, Bayh was able to keep up but was of little substance, and Ford tried to show off his Centrist cred but looked more like he was playing both sides. Reagan was able to counter most statements with a pithy remark or comeback. So it's not surprise that Reagan was considered the winner by the majority of audiences across America. It was a particularly helpful boost for Reagan.

It wouldn't be enough though.


1976 US Presidential Election:
Conservative Party: 252 Electoral Votes
Democratic Party: 233 Electoral Votes
Republican Party: 53 Electoral Votes


With a need of 269 electoral votes for a majority, no candidate held a majority. There would be a contingent election. No matter who was chosen it would be a controversial affair. The 95th Congress was called into an emergency session so as to soothe the transition of power. If they fail to act decisively before January 20th, then the Speaker of the House will become the Acting President until either Congress elects a Vice President or a President.

Congressional Makeup of the newly elected 95th Congress:

Senate – Democratic Majority
Democratic: 56
Republican: 27
Conservative: 16
Independent: 1 (Caucuses with Democrats)
Vacant: 0

House of Representatives – Democratic Majority
Democratic: 261
Republican: 106
Conservative: 68
Vacant: 0


Naturally the entire process was scandalized by the Conservatives. The primary point of contention was the fact that Reagan won the electoral vote (not the majority, mind you) and had a slim plurality in the popular vote. What made it worse was how close many states were due to the dynamics of a 3-way race. California, Indiana, New Jersey, Florida, and Pennsylvania were all within the sub 1% range. This experience in would ultimately put America on the path to further electoral reform.

Reagan and most of the Conservative Party elite stayed silent during the affair, letting the people and their politicians do the attacking. Bayh was quick to point out that he was an advocate for electoral reform towards a popular vote system since the 1960's. Reagan was quick to point out that he won the plurality of the popular vote. The two (and their parties) went back and forth during the process of the contingent election, making the already controversial event even more divisive.

With their majority, the Democrats easily put Bayh and his VP John Glenn through Congress and on January 20th at noon Birch Bayh was sworn in as President of the United States, with John Glenn as his Vice President.

The Democrats had to wonder though, how could Bayh have damn near blown such a lead? What did he say, what did he do, where didn't he go that caused such a muddying of the waters to occur? 1976 was supposed to be a Democratic year. Nixon forced out. GOP splintered. More negative elements of the party wondered if this wasn't really just a sign of things to come...

<Birch Bayh speaking to some college kids via a PA>
Birch Bayh several years before becoming President on a college campus
But Bayh didn't have time to ponder, he had work to do.

------
Alright, that's that.

For those who are interested, the title is a nod to the Strugatsky Brother's Noon Universe and also a reference to the idea that the world is past it's golden age in this TL. It's not dystopian and by the end in 2000 America is still a Democratic state but the world is far less optimistic about the future than in our 2000.

Let me know if you like it so far.
 
Last edited:
2 - Part 2: Hoosier Hero...?
Like with the last post, nothing has been changed except for pictures that had to be removed.

Everything past this point is from the post:

Part 2: Hoosier Hero...?


President Birch Bayh, early 1977

It was bitingly cold winter in 1977. The windchill factor made it sting the skin. But it had a hidden benefit – it gave Bayh and his sidekick Glenn an excuse to get real stuck in it. Both of them quickly got acclimated to their roles during that nasty cold snap.

Vice President Glenn, for all the smiles he could manage, was an angry sort. He was quick to anger and didn't like to take no for an answer from anybody. He had wanted to cultivate and image and career similar to that of Johnson, someone who was an implacable advocate for the President's and later his own policy. He had made it to the moon so it wouldn't be unthinkable for him to be President after Bayh.

At least that's what he figured.

In some ways he was that man. But in other ways he wasn't. Johnson could be an angry sonovagun but he was a sly sonovagun. You could hate him but you'd vote how he told you. Glenn, for all he was worth lacked that sly, charismatic style. He was a bulldog. In some circles this gained him respect, to be a 17th century Jesuit priest for Liberalism was a noble thing to some folks. He was a passionate man, who was ready to go to mattresses to defend what he knew what was right.

Or, if you asked Mo Udall he was the angriest damn spaceman he ever met.

Your choice.

Regardless of your opinion of Mr. Glenn, his approach congressional relationships did more to damage President Bayh's outreach attempts to the Republican party in their waning days than help it. Glenn quickly became the administration's attack dog, whether he knew it or not. And whether he knew it or not.

But Bayh was a different sort of guy. He would stand up for his beliefs, you can be sure of that, but he wasn't going to be in your face over an ordeal. He considered himself an exemplary deal maker and rightfully so, considering he was able to snag the nomination from the likes of Jerry Brown. So reaching across the aisle would become something of a forte for Bayh and his relationship with Congress was actually quiet good despite bulldog Glenn and a combative insurgent third party in Congress. At least in the beginning.

Bayh's domestic agenda could roughly be split on 3 major initiatives.

Firstly, was electoral reform. After the contingent election, the first since the early 1800's, it was clear that the electoral system in American needed to be vastly overhauled. This was a fantastic opportunity for reform in Bayh's eyes. Not only had he been in favor of such a reform since the 60's, but the Conservatives made an incredible stink trying to muddy the results and cast doubts on his Presidency. In the end they effectively endorsed the reform by their politicking. Bayh was a more kind man than Glenn, but that doesn't mean he didn't know how the play the political game.

Reagan and Bayh had a meeting in the oval office. Spring had just started to emerge from the cold and color was returning to DC.

Reagan was different from the last time they met. They were in front of TV cameras, dueling it out together with Ford trying to play happy medium between the two. Reagan was at his best then, slick, confident, ready to snap out a witticism that would destroy you right then and there. But now, he seemed...humbled. Like your old Pa might be when you visit for the first time since you go off to college. Bayh wasn't sure totally sure if was an act. It was just them in there, no wiretaps either, so if he was faking it, it was just for him.

Reagan was casual, going off on tangents and casually mentioning that he was mulling a senate challenge to S.I. Hayakawa back home in California.


I'm not plotting your downfall, I promise. Really. Honest.
"You should try it. Hayakawa's a freshman. Should be easy work." Bayh wasn't sure why but he was suddenly suggesting he make a challenge against Hayakawa. Hayakawa was a Republican but that didn't make it any less odd. Maybe he thought that if Reagan was in the Senate the rift in the GOP would heal. But would he want something like that? No, certainly that. That much Bayh knew. He knew that for damn sure.

Hell, the split would get brushed over and the GOP would unite eventually. That's what he figured. The last time some folks tried that the Dixiecrats popped up and they joined back up or party switched at the end of the day. They were a nuisance more than anything else. A racist nuisance, but a nuisance all the same. They fade away if you give 'em time. It's just a matter of letting the wounds heal.

Thankfully for us all, the two got back on track. Back to talking about electoral reform.

Bayh laid out his opinions on the subject and why he wanted Reagan to support the reforms alongside him. Reagan wasn't really paying attention to what Bayh was saying and spent more time eyeing the chair he was sitting in than whatever Bayh was going on about.

Reagan cut straight to the chase. "You really have me by my gonads, Birch." He smiled in that humble 'pa' way. This time it seemed unnatural to Bayh.

"I suppose I do." And he did, The Conservative Party was whining about the election when they still had a chance to pull something out of it. Now, Conservative Party supporters were and still are often to be more prone ignore these events so that the Conservative Party can say one thing and then do another. But in this case, when the Conservatives were so young and they had argued so strongly for their shot at the Presidency until the last day that they couldn't be so flagrantly hypocritical. They couldn't afford be so. They were supposed to be the party of cleanliness and righteousness. Reagan believed this and Bayh understood this.

So Electoral Reform was the first and most major thing Bayh would set out to accomplish. Albeit with Reagan tagging along as the "Mr. Number 2" for the whole affair. Reagan simply refused to be forgotten in the affair and his name is attached to popular vote as much as Bayh's.

So an amendment was drafted, transforming America from a state that relied on the outdated and reviled electoral college system and changed it into a race based on the popular vote. It was a simple system for an increasingly complex age.

Normally this would be an exceptionally difficult task. One that would likely fail, as it would require more than a few states and statesmen to support a change to a system that favored them. But with Reagan's support, it moved forward. Therefore for Bayh, finding the votes for the amendment was actually quite easy compared to the task's usual difficulty.

For the Conservatives, this was a simple task and required no thought whatsoever on their part. Reagan said they were going to pass the amendment so the everyone fell in line. The old saying is so very true: "Republicans fall in line; Democrats fall in love." Reagan never needed a senate seat. He had all the power he needed just by virtue of his clout.

Ironically the Democrats were a harder group to sway than the Conservatives. This was more to do with the fact that the Democrats were not centered around a few party big wigs who made the choices but rather big names who could sway undecideds by their actions. If Bayh and Glenn wanted to get the Popular Vote amendment passed they needed to schmooze and bemuse the various No's and Maybe's in the party and make sure that all the influential types remained in line. Everyone else would fall in line once the major players went along with it. While Bayh worked on this, Glenn worked on an equally important program.

The second major policy was rejuvenating the ERA and getting it passed. This was Glenn's task and increasingly his sole responsibility as the Spring wore on further and further until it became the Summer.

The ERA didn't have what it needed though. No matter what the Democrats did. They did not have enough votes outside the party. Never mind votes from the inside. On top of this there certainly was not anything close to enough support from the states themselves to amend the Constitution. This isn't to say that Glenn doomed the project, rather that the project was damn near impossible to begin with. The ERA's original failure and second failure spoke more to the prevailing opinions regarding Women and Liberalism in American society, rather than John Glenn's diplomatic abilities. It was a sad thing.

The renewed ERA failed on the floor, but the Popular Vote Amendment passed. With Conservatives got behind it, it was enough to pass the mandatory 2/3rds in both houses of Congress and it moved onto the states to ratify the amendment. Smaller states claimed that it would take away their voice and as a result, were very unlikely to be voting to ratify an amendment like that.

In the end, the recent events that occurred make a solid argument for removing what most consider to be a wholly artificial barrier that merely exists to complicate a system that was initially meant to make easier for candidates to compete.

States ratifying, 38 needed (listed until 2/3rds):

1. Texas, 2. Ohio, 3. New York, 4. New Jersey, 5. California, 6. Indiana, 7. Illinois, 8. Massachusetts, 9. Virginia, 10. North Carolina, 11. Florida, 12. Georgia, 13. Louisiana, 14. Arizona, 15. New Mexico, 16. Oregon, 17. Washington, 18. Wisconsin, 19. Minnesota, 20. Michigan, 21. Pennsylvania, 22. Kentucky, 23. Tennessee, 24. Maryland, 25. Delaware, 26. Connecticut, 27. Rhode Island, 28. Maine, 29. Mississippi, 30. Alabama, 31. Nevada, 32. Missouri, 33. Hawaii, 34. Alaska, 35. West Virginia, 36. Kansas, 37. Iowa, 38. Utah.

Without the support of the Conservatives the amendment would have failed. Bayh was cognizant of that fact and tried his best to reach across the aisle as much as possible. For better or for worse.

The third and final major initiative from Bayh was Universal Healthcare. It was a long shot, it would be a long shot in any year. Yet still the concept of starting the march towards UHC was a fight that very much attracted President Bayh as well as a number of other leading Democrats. It was a hill they were really ready to die on if need be. With a solid approval rating in the positives, a constitutional amendment to show for his effort, people figured that they could perhaps even gain seats in the midterms and pass major legislation regarding heath care. Sadly, outside forces beyond America's control had ideas of their own.

Around the world, things seemed to fall off their hinges and indeed in America itself things were rough. The economy never fully recovered from Ford's economic woes and so the buck was passed onto Bayh. A particularly nasty issue was stagflation, an economic woe that haunted the Bayh administration. It was a portmeanteau of inflation and stagnation. Meaning that the economy suffered heavily from inflation as well as the effects of a general economic stagnation.

Whatever positive press Bayh had was shot down by bad economic news more often than not. His successes sometimes outshined the poor economic news, meaning much to few and few to many.

Another major economic issue that took hold was the energy crisis of 1979. In the wake of civil strife in the Middle East, oil output dropped and the world's oil supply dropped by about only 5%. Despite the small drop in output, it sent a fear into the market and the price of oil quickly catapulted beyond reason into prices like 40 USD per barrel.

The panic set in and the long lines that were once hallmarks of the 1973 oil crisis. Despite the wishes of Bayh and his administration the world was only getting crazier and gas prices would not return to pre-crisis lows until the early 1990's. The Conservatives quickly added the runaway gas prices and lines to their repertoire of attacks on Bayh. They were ready and waiting for the next election, even despite their earlier cooperation.

It was politics after all.

------


"We shall not forget the teachings of Ayatollah Khomeini!"

It was as though the maws of chaos opened themselves unto the world.

Bayh was to be a domestic President. The mess in Vietnam was finally over, and now America could focus on it self. At least that was the prevailing line of thought. That's what the plan was. But the world does not stand still and the world is seldom a peaceful place. Even in these modern times: he with the biggest club wins.

As 1978 rolled around, the quiet period following the collapse of South Vietnam ended with roars across the Muslim world.

Before Bayh's term was over, a major conflagration was to erupt in the Middle East. Resulting not only the definitive end of the 5th party system but a serious change in US foreign policy up to that point.

The matches which lit the proverbial powder keg were of four sources.

Firstly, was a general sense of anti-imperialist and anti-American thought in the Middle East. Indeed the Vietnam War as well as other interventions and coups did little to enhance America's reputation abroad. This led to a general rejection of American Liberal Capitalism in the Middle East. While the Middle East was generally not a locale that was famed for its support of bog-standard American Capitalism, the various aggressive actions against nations pushed many into either supporting Communism or finding themselves supporting even Ba'athism and maybe perhaps something else entirely. There was still those that supported Liberal Capitalism, but their voices grew ever quieter in a sea of radical voices that demanded change from a broken system.

Secondly, was the rejection of secularization and modernization efforts by various regimes in the Middle East. The nations of the Middle East, realizing that they often ruled over diverse groups of people by virtue of how the Imperial powers drew borders, came to the conclusion that a secular administration was better off more often than not. It allowed the various ethnic groups and religious groups to each take part in the government and to each reap the benefits thereof.

Thirdly, was general governmental failures. Whether it is corruption, a lack of economic growth and opportunity, suppression of freedoms, etc. No matter what the failures were, some governments in the Middle East began to suffer legitimacy issues among the populace.

Finally and perhaps most importantly, was the failure of Arab Nationalism. After the Six Day War in which Israel crush her Arab foes, it destroyed whatever momentum was left in the movement. So there was no more reason to try to form a grand pan-Arab state, no reason to struggle for secularization and modernization beyond the sake of sheer bureaucractism The reasoning for Arab Nationalism died because of its continual failures and it's corpse remained as the specter known as Ba'athism. But with that death, there was a new vacancy, one beyond Arab Fascism. And whatever managed to take hold in that vacancy would no doubt become the region's zeitgeist.

That zeitgeist was to be Islamism.

It all started when the Iranian Revolution erupted, sending the Shahdom into a dizzying whirlwind. An odd collective of Islamists, Leftists, and Liberals overthrew the Iranian Shah after a series of controversial events and government mismanagement made the government deeply unpopular. The Monarchy had previously held the nation under an iron grip but the government's reactions to protests lead to radicalization among the anti-government groups and martial law was declared. The situation quickly deteriorated to an untenable low and a nationwide strike was at hand. The Shahdom was on it's last legs and it was desperate to end the resistance.

SAVAK agents were dispatched on an urgent mission to Iraq where the Ayatollah Khomeini promoted his Islamist opposition to the Shah. The heads of the Shahdom figured that if Khomeini was gone, then the Islamists would peter out without a uniting figure. And then the Communists could just be shot. The Anglo-American coup in the 50's taught them that. Therefore the Islamists took precedence over the Communists.

The SAVAK agents spent about a week sleuthing about Iraq, looking to find where the Ayatollah laid his head.

They found a tasteful compound in the Iraqi city of Basra that seemed to have no legal owner but was occupied despite that. They launched an attack after identifying several of the compound guards as close Khomeini supporters who had spent time in jails in Iran. After a siege at his compound, Khomeini was shot dead – but at a heavy price. Domestically any chance the regime had for reconciliation with the opposition was done as soon as that was Khomeini took his last breath. The assassination of Khomeini and the later massacres on Black Friday sealed the Monarchy's fate. The regime had made martyrs and that was a mistake they could not take back.

But more worrying for regional peace, Iraq was not eager to allow SAVAK free reign in their country and looked for a way to hit back at its neighbor. Saddam took the SAVAK incursion as a major offense and saw it as an affront to his authority on a personal level. This was especially the case as it seemed to imply that the Ba'athist government did not have as much control and power as they let on. Saddam would not allow it to go unanswered for.

Though he did not have total and full control of Iraq, he was able to order a response unilaterally at that point. Arab rebels were funded through the IIS in and around the province of Khuzestan which Iraq claimed for itself. The conflict was a low intensity one at the time, as martial law provided the authorities with more than enough methods of dealing with the situation. But once Iran was aflame it soon became a zone of hostilities just like other separatist regions in Iran. In the Iraqi dictator's head, Khuzestan was but a stepping stone in a larger plan to dominate the region. The discord in the Middle East would be particularly advantageous to him in the future and he would take full advantage of it.

The situation in Iran naturally degraded even further despite Washington's futile attempts to strike a bargain with the Shah and the opposition. Knowing their days were numbered in their Tehran palace, the Shah and his family finally fled into exile. They first stopped in Egypt but they were forced to leave the Islamic world as assassination attempts became more and more frequent. The family arrived in France in 1981 and proceeded to eek out a private existence, afraid that radicals would come for them.

The former government of the Shah then folded to the Opposition without bloodshed, but the revolution was far from over. A new interim government was formed and staffed primarily by Liberals and Moderates. Washington anxiously watched and waited with baited breath before coming to the conclusion that the worst had already occurred, but in reality the new government rarely represented the "will of the crowd" in many areas, even the urban areas that should be strongholds to such intellectual types. The Republic of Iran was doomed from day 1.

The Bayh government proceeded to restart relations with the new regime and provide assistance in maintaining control until the new elections. The government was still not stable however. It had limited reach outside the Tehran and increasingly militant Islamist and Communist groups began to take what they wanted from armories. Soldiers of the old regime took what they wanted and went home or to new friends in extralegal paramilitary bases across Iran. The government's control quickly dissipated from the pitiful authority they had before and soon they could seldom carry out commands outside of certain segments of Tehran.

Soon after the Iranian interim regime would suffer a final, decisive defeat. Militants aligned to the People's Mujaheddin of Iran stormed Tehran in a frenzy. A new Socialist Republic was declared. A small force of militants loyal to the Liberals and Moderates aided by took to the streets to defend what they had left. It was little work for the experienced fighters of the People's Mujaheddin. They cut through the untrained and demoralized militias with ease.

The former government was almost immediately liquidated or forced underground by the gunmen and the situation swirled out of control as the Iranian government simply stopped existing. The Communists and Islamists were in open combat, even among themselves. Now it was a Civil War. But it was the beginning of the Islamic Awakening.

<Armed militia in an urban setting>
People's Mujaheddin fighters threaten to overrun the American embassy in Tehran

Afghanistan too, saw a breakdown. Just like Iran, the old Monarchy was toppled. The major difference however was that instead of being brought down by popular discontent, the monarchy was brought down by a former Prime Minister and a handful of sympathetic military officers. Daoud Khan led an effective but also expansionist government and quickly made enemies of close neighbor Pakistan. Soon though, the Afghan Republic that was established following the coup would be overthrown. This time however by Communists who were helped along once again by sympathetic military officers.

The Communists were hardly a united front in Afghanistan. The Khalq and Parcham factions often fought among themselves to wrangle influence from the other and the situation was dangerously unstable. But still, with support from the military, they managed to establish a Socialist Republic closely based off the Soviet State-Socialism model. Pakistan and Iran (at that time still a monarchy) reacted poorly to the Saur Revolution and the previous republic's issues with Pakistan would cause the new regime to largely follow in their older foreign policy footsteps, that of subversion. Pakistan had previously helped initiate an uprising against the Daoud government, but this initial uprising blossomed into a larger opposition to the central secular government in general. The new government's reforms aimed at "uprooting feudalism" only served to engender further chaos and resentment in rural areas. The debate was to be solved by force of arms.

In early 1979, as a result of continued and constant calls from the Afghani government, the Soviets decided to send in troops. The situation was predicted to "only get worse once our troops arrive" by Kosygin who assessed that the Afghani government needed to do more to build a broad base of support. Unsurprisingly it did in fact get worse. It truly became dreadful, especially when the Bayh administration contacted the Pakistani government and American aid to the anti-government forces soon flooded into Afghanistan. Bayh simply could not allow the Soviets to do whatever they wanted in the region, lest they be spurred on to conquering Iran which American intelligence believed was ripe for the taking.

The Soviets weren't idiots and they smelled a potential for success in Iran. No matter how many arms and explosives you shipped into Afghanistan, the Soviets knew a good situation for revolution when they saw one.

So, naturally, Iranian Communists began receiving arms and funds straight from Moscow. If Iran went Pro-Soviet, then they could put a serious strain on Oil shipments and according to Brezhnev, sink the Capitalists. That was part of a larger strategy drawn up by Brezhnev on one to many alcoholic drinks. It was just a matter of winning. But the Soviets were playing with fire. Even if they didn't know it at the time.

Yemen saw a burst of violence as well. One that would start to so-called "Arab War" which would encourage the conflagration that was the Islamic Awakening.

Yemen was split into two separate countries at the time because of Nasser's meddling and the chaos of decolonization. In a ironic twist, the South was Pro-Soviet whereas the North was Capitalist. Despite this theoretically massive difference of policy, the two sides had friendly relations with each other. But, like most governments they had occasionally irrational periods that would lead to a breakdown in relations.

One of these incidents, a rumor that the South Yemen was funding rebels in the North, led to the Arab War.

The North and the South began to fire at one another, though neither side crossed the border across initially. They knew what that would mean. Throwing caution aside, radical officers from the North led a contingent of men into the South and soon the South and North were at war. This spat would be put on hold after several months after the Arab League intervened and both sides found that peace (even despite the massive amounts of foreign military aid) was better to their liking.

This didn't hold.

In February 1980 forces loyal to the South flooded into the North, smelling an easy victory. Despite sporting a larger military in terms of size, the North's Air Force and Army had been decimated during the previous conflict. The South knew this and decided to take a chance, figuring that the world was more focused on Iran and Afghanistan. Yet it wasn't the world or the UN they had to worry about, it was the regional powers of the Middle East.

The Saudis who had been supporting North Yemen did not take the invasion well. Nor did any of Saudi Arabia's close partners in the region. Additionally, to make sure he looked strong against Reagan in the months before America went to the polls Bayh promised to take an aggressive stand against the Communists in South Yemen. The US began funding opposition in the South and increased funding to allies in the region. The Soviets and Libya quickly returned the favor. And so began the Arab War.

Saddam's Iraq also made their move. With their insurgency in Khuzestan going well and Iran fighting itself, the Iraqis figured it was as good as ever to begin a war of conquest. To ensure further control of the Gulf and to stoke the fires of Nationalist fervor Iraq invaded Iran. In the Middle East the best military (except Israel) was that of Iraq's and so the Iranian Islamists and Communists were quickly pushed out of the region and Saddam was able to declare victory with little effort. An insurgency would persist in the region but there was little in the way of serious resistance to Iraq's actions.


Saddam Hussein makes his case for Iraqi Khuzestan, early 1980's.

Diplomatic situation of the Arab War as of 1980:

- America: Providing aid to native Jihadists in Afghanistan, and the governments of North Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Israel, and Pakistan. Wondering what the hell to do with the mess that's been made.

- South Yemen: Fighting a war against the North. Winning the fight. Aligned with the Soviets.

- North Yemen: Fighting a war against the South. Losing. Aligned with the Americans.

- Saudi Arabia: Fighting alongside North Yemen. Militarily ineffective. Funding Jihadists in Afghanistan.

- Egypt: Providing aid to North Yemen. Begining to prepare for military action against South Yemen.

- Jordan: Not interested in taking part in the war or helping out. Still remains close to the US regardless.

- Israel: Not interested in taking part in the war or helping out. Currently mucking about in Lebanon though they haven't intervened officially yet.

- Lebanon: In a Civil War between various religious factions. Uneasy ceasefire being enforced.

- Syria: Has invaded Lebanon and is enforcing peace there. Is providing military aid to South Yemen but hasn't gone any further. Hates Iraq as per usual. Seriously considering deepening ties with the Soviets after Iraq's invasion of Iran.

- Iraq: Considering further options in the conflict. They have traditionally been more Pro-Soviet but the Yemen conflict and the invasion of Iran puts them at odds with the Soviets. Providing some supplies to North Yemen. Will probably tell the Soviets to shove it.

- Iran: In the middle of a bloody Civil War. The Islamists have the upper hand but the Communists are nothing if not tenacious.

- Afghanistan: Dealing with Islamist uprising across the country. Soviet forces have come to support the regime but the situation is only getting worse.

- Pakistan: Funding Islamists in Afghanistan. Worried about what's happening in Iran.

- Libya: Giving military aid to South Yemen but wholly uninterested in joining in on the military conflict itself.

The chaos in the Middle East, as well as Bayh's pushing of the SALT II treaty and the Panama Canal treaty would cause much consternation in the Democratic Party. The interventionist wing led by Scoop Jackson was enraged and Jackson's proteges like Jeane Kirkpatrick watched from the sidelines with baited breath. They knew that there had to be another way. Something would have to give. Sooner or later.

------

Coming into 1980, even with all the chaos in the world the Republicans were still inert. They lacked the enthusiasm, they lacked the votes, they lacked the momentum. They lacked anything they needed to win. There were questions regarding who Republicans were now that the Conservatives have jettisoned themselves from the Party. These were questions that had to be answered definitively before the Republican Party could hope to move forward. What was their ideology? Who was their base? Where was their coalition? Did they HAVE a coalition? What made them different from moderate Democrats or Conservatives? These internal questions regarding the Republican Party's status in American politics as well as the ascension of the new Conservative Party in politics led to a slow trickle of desertions following the general election in '76.

It would lead to their destruction in the end.

By 1979, the Republicans lost over half of their Congressmen to desertions and took similar beatings in states across the nation. In 1980 it was likely to get even worse. The Conservatives eyed the formerly solid ruby red districts across America. A candidate could desert the old GOP or they could go down with the ship. Only the strongest of candidates could survive such a challenge. The Conservatives knew this and exploited it as much as possible.

The 1980 Primaries and Convention were an odd affair for the Republicans. It was like watching a shambling corpse wander about. It was merely a shadow of its former self. The 'Grand Old Party' as it is sometimes called was little more than a collection of hasbeens and nobodies come 1980. But they could still put together a final ticket, a last hurrah, a final hail mary.

From the start, there were only two serious candidates. Representative John B. Anderson from Illinois, and Senator Charles Mathias from Maryland. Outside of their names and faces, the two were fairly similar. Much like the Party itself, both candidates were not totally sure how to define themselves or what their goals even were beyond general platitudes and generic reformism. It would appear that suburban Centrism was not an inspiring ideology.

Anderson's campaign was less focused on Centrism and more on reform. He was in favor of cutting superfluous spending on programs across the board, trying to acquire a budget surplus, and electoral reform. It wasn't an inspiring platform by any measure, but still it gained him the respect of many middle class suburbanites and other Liberal intellectuals who still tagged along with the GOP. Some folks welcomed this new Center-Right approach. Even Nixon did, though he didn't say so out loud. He was a political unperson at this point.

Mathias' campaign was more focused on combating Conservatism and promoting moderate Liberalism more than Anderson's campaign. Like Anderson, he too was in favor of fiscal responsibility, but what he lacked in reformism he made up in dramatic crusaderism against the Conservative Party. He claimed that they were an insurgent faction of Goldwater-types, Racists, and economic illiterates. To him, their leaving the Republican Party was a good thing. Now the party, according to Mathias, could rebuild itself from the bottom in the wake of Nixon's corruption. Now it could be the party of Lincoln.


Senator Charles Mathias: "The American People must chose the responsible, sensible choice."

It was apocalyptic drivel but it played well with the remaining supporters of the party. Especially those who really hated Reagan for striking it out alone.

There was also a third campaign that was mounted, though it was not a totally serious venture. Bob Dole of Kansas had his name on various ballots during the primaries and indeed won some delegates by virtue of the popularity of his proposal. Dole promoted the idea that the Conservatives could be invited back into the party. If he was selected as the nominee for the party he vowed to bow out immediately and endorse Reagan for President in the hope that it would allow the rift to be healed. This naturally made him Mathias' arch-rival during the primaries.

There were obviously other campaigns but they were often from unimportant or otherwise unworthy figures who had only been afforded the chance to run for President by virtue of the Republican Party's lack of big name legislators and governors. Their campaigns were of little note and therefore go unmentioned.

Anderson got off to an early lead with a victory in Iowa, but before the end of the primaries Anderson would drop out after seeing a drop in support and running out of campaign funds during the Texas primaries. Anderson would endorse Mathias later on that month, hoping for a VP nod. At the homely Convention in Cleveland, Charles Mathias was selected to be the nominee for the Republican Party. Anderson wouldn't get the VP nod he was looking for however. The governor of Michigan, William Milliken managed to catch Mathias' eyes. He was a solid Republican who was firmly against the new Conservative Party even despite the electoral risks of doing so.

Anderson was angry, but it wasn't like he had much recourse. The convention was already decided before the first ballot and he wasn't interested in damaging the party any further for the sake of getting a spot on the ticket. So he dropped the issue, hoping that he could get his chance in 1984.

The Platform of the GOP in 1980 was one of moderation and accusation. The platform was based partially around Mathias' personal views, some of Anderson's reformism, and a whole lot of anti-Conservative Party rhetoric. The Conservatives were simultaneously accused of splitting the party and also being Far-Right entryists, closer to the Klan than Republicans.

The Republicans decided to hold their ground rather than go quiet into the night. Mathias and the last of the Republican Party made their stand in 1980, for better or worse.

Lincoln, Freedom, Moderation!



Hello, is there anybody listening? Is this thing on?

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Major electoral changes already! Oooh. If I managed to somehow mess up the math or how the Constitution works I'll fix it when I get around to it.

Okay, consider this post this week's update. There's likely going to be 1 or 2 more updates before Christmas. 2 being the absolute most.

Oh, and a question: More or less pictures in the posts?
 
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3 - Part 3: Win one for the Gipper!
Everything past here is from the post:

Because I'm a nice guy I edited part 3 of the TL instead of what I should have been doing. Also it's 3 in the morning now... Now that I check the clock, actually closer to 4. Wasn't expecting to be up this late. Oh well.

Here ya go:

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Part 3: Win one for the Gipper!

It's no surprise that both Bayh and Reagan won their respective nominations with ease. No one wanted to challenge a sitting President and the Conservative Party WAS Reagan's Party at that point. No serious challengers materialized and both coasted through the primaries. The Conventions were not the drama filled rage-fest of the Republican and Democratic conventions of 1976. They were what they were intended to be in the modern age: advertisements.

Bayh kept with Glenn, there was no reason to drop him. But Reagan made a change from his earlier ticket. As the wounds from Watergate started to fade away he decided to change it up with someone that could bring more to the ticket. The Conservative's Big 5 got together and in the end opted to place Reagan with Jay Hammond, Governor of Alaska. An odd choice, since being Governor of Alaska didn't pull much regional weight on a ticket and Hammond wasn't particularly charismatic.

What Hammond did bring to the ticket was his image.

Hammond cultivated an image of a self-reliant man, something the Conservatives wanted to hold up. He was also a firm supporter of Reagan, a fiscal conservative, and he also had undertaken the interesting Alaska Permanent Fund as Governor which provided dividends to Alaska's residents. The program gave Conservatives ideas regarding welfare, as it was in some ways similar to Milton Friedman's Guaranteed Income and made them lick their chops at the concept of a negative income tax. He was also a Conservationist however which presented a downside to choosing him, but at the time the Conservatives weren't too sure about things like the environment. Nowadays such a position would be an automatic disqualifyer for any position on the ticket. In the end, they decided he brought more to the ticket than he took away and Hammond was selected as Reagan's running-mate.



Former Governor Hammond: A different kind of man for a different kind of Washington

Polling throughout the lead up to the fateful day was memorably inconsistent. The Democrats and the Conservatives were always the top two in polling, but what caused issues was the inclusion of the Republican Party in many polls. The people who supported the GOP were suburban types and liberal intellectuals who made their homes most in the North East and Pacific West. Polls specific to those regions typically varied wildly due to the capricious nature of the new GOP base. Reagan was too much for them but Bayh was too Liberal. But maybe even Mathias was too Liberal then? It made many a poll worthless and it fed into a general atmosphere that even with the incumbency, the Presidency was up for grabs. Anything was possible in 1980 now that the electoral college was gone. The American dream was alive, at least for a few people.

The Bayh campaign was deeply aware of the new political arena they helped unleash and they expected it to be so. Now without the electoral college, campaigns were unleashed to figure out how to win on a totally new battlefield. Now strategies that once favored the few in far flung and unimportant states were tossed aside for whatever would garner the most votes. It really was a new ballgame. Democrats embraced this idea to the fullest, looking to use the benefits of the inner city and the suburbs to give the Conservatives a bloody nose. The most votes win so areas outside of where your base resides doesn't matter. This was the sort of race to the bottom critics of the electoral reforms derided but the Bayh campaign embraced it.

The Reagan campaign was content to stick to the fundamentals. They focused on pushing the advantage in close states, they picked a running-mate who made a good side kick and foil to the nominee, they didn't waste resources in unwinnable states. Would the tried and true methods prevail over the new methods?

Their platform was a Conservative dream. It was the kind of ideas that Conservatives in the Republican Party had been salivating over since Goldwater first won them over. Taxes to be slashed and simplified substantially. State's Rights over that of the Federal Government. A Right-to-Life amendment. A hard stance on crime and criminality. Criticisms to the UN and Bayh's weak dove foreign policy. Promotion of an American-centric foreign policy, putting America and American's interests above all else. Slashing regulations across the board. An increase in nuclear armaments. It was red meat for the red base and by Jove did they eat it up.

After convention season, the race was relatively quiet. There was no big October surprise or any major scandal to effect either side.

Reagan suffered an early debate loss to Bayh after confusing a country with another, leading to a minor kerfuffle over Reagan's age but he was quick to put that to bed. Beyond that, there was no major events. Things were quiet and the average person was thankful. The world was going crazy, so to have America at least remain a little sane was truly a gift.

But the winds of change are a capricious beast indeed.


Ronald Reagan/Jay Hammond (Conservative Party): 47.8%
Birch Bayh/John Glenn (Democratic Party): 42.4%
Charles Mathias/William Milliken (Republican Party): 7.7%
Other and Write-Ins: 2.1%

Ronald Reagan was the first President elected via popular vote.

In the immediate aftermath, Bayh and his campaign were wondering what happened. They understood that the economy was having issues and that America looked weak on foreign policy, but to be defeated as the incumbent! It was embarrassing. It was horrible. It was unthinkable. It wasn't supposed to happen.

Mainstream academics nowadays consider Bayh's electoral loss to be the result of 3 major issues and numerous smaller mistakes that the Democrats made that added up over time.

The first was that Mathias' campaign was a vote spoiler for Bayh. While the average GOP voter was a capricious thing, the vast majority had not totally written off Bayh like they had with Reagan. The issue was ultimately that Mathias turned out likely Bayh voters – but they voted for Mathias. After 1980 the situation was not duplicated and the North East would remain a major Democratic vote pool however. Reagan's peak was in '80.

The second was the Bayh campaign's eagerness to throw old political thought to the wind. While Reagan and Bayh both ushered in the post-electoral college era, Bayh was the true believer in the program. He and his campaign incorrectly believed that without electoral votes that most established political thought was not set in stone. The largest error was the assumption that an urban-centric policy would be best. No matter how many times electoral votes were dismantled, it wouldn't change the political reality that it was hard to get urban constituents out to vote. It was tough to get them registered, it was tough to get them to the polls when they had work or kids to take care of, it was tough to get them to stand in line all damn day because the polling station services an immense number of people. No matter how many Harlems Bayh had it couldn't change the political realities that made suburban voters easier to get and easier to keep. The system of racial inequality and racial suppression made turning the urban minority vote out often difficult.

The third and final was Bayh's performance as President. Much of the issues he would face in his term were not his of his doing. They had their start in long-standing American policy or mistakes made by the Nixon administration. No matter who was President in 1976 they would have went through much of the same that Bayh would go through domestically and in the foreign field. If Reagan had won in 1976 he likely would have been a one term President in the same manner as Bayh. The Conservative revolution could have died in the womb if Reagan got his way just a little bit earlier.

Regardless of whatever alternate history or counterfactual you wish to prater on about, Reagan was President in 1980. Bayh was a one term President.

The GOP saw its last days in the months following the election. The Mathias campaign had almost entirely emptied their coffers and the RNC itself was deeply in debt. In the early days of 1981 the RNC sold most of its remaining its remaining assets to pay off its debts. After that the Republican Party was no longer an entity on a national scale. Some local Republicans would find success into the 90's as a third party in the suburban north east, but the national ambitions of the party ended there.

And so began the reign of President Ronald Reagan.

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It was 1980 and the year of the Conservative Revolution had just begun.

Congressional Makeup of the newly elected 97th Congress:
Changes in seats measure since the most recent Congressional Makeup section...

Senate – Conservative Majority
Conservative: 52 (+36)
Democratic: 43 (-13)
Independent Republican: 3 (-24)
Independent Conservative Republican: 1 (+1) (Caucuses with Conservative)
Independent: 1 (+0) (Caucuses with Democrats)
Vacant: 0

House of Representatives – Democratic Majority
Democratic: 238 (-23)
Conservative: 183 (+117)
Independent Republican: 13 (-93)
Independent: 1 (+1) (Caucuses with Democrats)
Vacant: 0


Though the takeover of Congress was not complete, it was a major gain for the Conservatives. With the GOP effectively finished as a national party, Republicans had a choice of either staying on as one of the last Republicans in Congress (noted as "Independent Republican") or joining the Conservatives. One in the senate even stayed as a Republican but caucused with the Conservatives. Times were odd for Republicans. The last Republicans would slowly come around or voted out of office. By 1996 there was not a single Republican left in Congress.

Even with a Democratic majority in the House, the Conservatives effectively had the trifecta. In the Senate Democrats were in the minority and most of their most senior members were stay-behinds like Eastland who controlled powerful committees and did more to enable the Conservatives than work for the Democratic Party. In both houses of Congress however, due to Reagan's win, some Democrats were anxious and were willing to at least contemplate a good portion of the new Presidential agenda. Reagan was more than able to move forward with his domestic legislative agenda and his foreign policy agenda with only minor resistance.

Still though, many Democrats were willing to simply go along with the domestic plans of the Conservatives without a moderation of their policy. Some even took a strong critical stance on Reagan and the Conservatives in general, not just in their domestic policy. Democrats like Ron Dellums, John Murtha, and Tom Daschle were noted to be the earliest of the so-called Hardliners group, a collection of Congress members who opposed Reagan and the Conservatives fully and stood firm in their Liberal convictions. Those who were not moderates or Hardliners and preferred to take a moderate, reform-centric tone in response to Reagan became known as the Reformists. Reformists and moderates were the powerful ones in Congress and so the Hardliners would remain a vocal but mostly ineffective crew in Democratic politics until the 90's.


Congressman Ron Dellums: "Why do I have to be the one to stand up here and remind y'all that spending billions on bombs and squat on welfare will get us nowhere?"

Democrats, regardless of their being a Reformist or a Hardliner, were confounded by Reagan's upset. They were not quite sure about how the Reagan Coalition had come to be, especially so quickly. The Conservatives managed to uproot the 5th Party system in a single election. For every Democrat, for every media pundit and analyst, simply incredible.

Democrats were especially perturbed by the concept of Reagan Democrats. Former Democrats, typically aligned with organized labor or the old Dixiecrats, who felt that the Democrats no longer represented them adequately. Thousands upon thousands of words were written on them following the 1980 election. Why did these folks feel ill represented? How could these folks be won back? The question was a fundamental one as it would potentially be the key in breaking apart Reagan's coalition and winning back the White House. Ron Dellums, the leftmost member of the House of Representatives, figured that the issue was that labor unions were being pushed to the wayside and that only pro-Union policies could win them back. Most of the Hardliners embraced this, whereas the Reformers (and therefore most Democrats) figured that it was because the Democrats had simply move too far left. Many discussions and arguments were had over the question but there was never any definitive answer gained from it.

In addition to the Reagan Democrats the Moral Majority was another thing that Democrats considered in their informal postmortems. This new group of moralistic Christians were the final nail in the coffin for any Democratic dreams of a blue South. The Baptist preacher Jerry Falwell and many other preachers strongly endorsed Reagan, saying that only he and the Conservatives could save the nation from its moral decline. Some Democrats wondered if it would be possible to pivot to the right and maybe peel them away, but that would take a seriously large pivot. Too large of a pivot to remain in the Democratic Party. And so outside of several old patrician stay-behinds, the Deep South was almost totally bereft of Democratic representation. Floridians and the occasional oddball notwithstanding.

Naturally the news media was quick to discuss these new political developments. Most outlets picked up on how the general opinion of people had shifted away from liberalism. Reagan was popular, he still had to prove himself, but he was popular. From the Reagan Democrats, to the Moral Majority, the news media took their time interviewing and going over the various groups that made up the new Reagan Coalition.

<A picture of a suburban development>
BEHOLD: Suburbia!

The reporter was in front of the camera, out in suburban neighborhood. His thick glasses and ugly brown suit looked more at home in the wood paneling of the 70's than in Reagan's new world 80's but no one wanted to say it to his face. The reporter held up his mic up to the mouth of some schlub who looks like who bullied you in High School.

"So you're a member of the local?"

"Ya godda-. I'm sorry. I mean, yes sir I am." The interviewee held out a little off-white card with some electrician's union logo and gave a smile.

"And who did you support this past election?" said the reporter, leaning in awkwardly. He wanted to make sure he was in the shot.

"Are you allowed to ask that?"

"You can say if you want to." the reporter said, prodding him to answer.

"Well I supported Mr. Reagan! He's a good guy. He's a good guy and he's gonna help save America from the mess that goof Bayh put us in. You can be damn sure of that." the interviewee was indignant just from the mention of Bayh's name and just as he began to launch into a rant the feed cut to a b-roll shot of an Indianapolis street with the reporter giving a voice over.

"For better or for worse, John Daly says he's voting Conservative next time too. He even says that everyone in his local voted for Reagan. Ain't that something? Looks like Indiana is Reagan country! Chuck Gordon, Indianapolis EyeWitness News!"

It was these sorts of stories. Stories that the liberal was an animal on the verge of extinction, that the worst it would ever get was that "small l" kind of liberalism that shows up sometimes in the suburbs among bored housewives. Even analysts and political scientists got into the fever and pieces like "The end of Liberalism?" and "The Reagan Revolution" were common titles of work from wanna-be intellectuals in Reagan's new American.

The decaying print media put on their own show as well. National Review had 2 issues just filled with the concept that the Democrats were out of step and out of touch. Some were quick to dismiss the analyses of writers like Buchanan and hacks like Chuck Gordon but if you looked outside you'd see a whole hell of a lot of Reagan/Hammod '80 signs outside. Some of the things they said were true.

It was morning in America. A new America.

Reagan pulled an upset on a sitting President and killed a political party, it was a new America. He was a major change to the American political system in a way that someone like Nixon hoped and prayed to be. Indeed major parts of the old FDR coalition just evaporated in 1980. It had been outright limping after Johnson, and in the 70's it was on its death bed. But it was the good 'ole Gipper just gave the final push and did it in.

Maybe the Democrats really WERE out of step. Maybe the Democrats WERE out of touch. You don't need to be a genius to know which way the wind's blowing.

Is Liberalism dead in America, or is it just resting? Only time and voter turnout will tell.

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Ronnie set straight to work, getting together with Congressmen to begin his legislative campaign. It was now time for his race to Berlin. The Big 5 were not sure, even with all the press puffing them up, that the Democrats and Republicans were dead in the water. In politics you can never know when your opponent is done for. Nixon's return from the wilderness is the ever present reminder that nothing is ever really over in politics. So they had to move quick to get some accomplishments under their belt.

The economy was in a rough state and it was one of Reagan's prime interests. If he could prove the economic viability of Supply-Side economics it would really put a dent in the Democrats. And every dent in a Democrat is a damn good dent. 'Least that's what the Conservatives thought.

But of course there were more considerations than just proving an economic theory and sticking it to political opponents. No one would undertake policy just for the sake of making the other side angry. The fact of the matter was that to engage in vigorous oppositions around the globe (centered in the Middle East obviously) Americans would need to have some level of trust in the economy before they would be willing to devote themselves to bombing enemies abroad.

As Donald Rumsfeld once put it: "You can't bomb the Soviets on a budget."

The lion's share of Reagan's economic reform was centered around Supply-Side economics and Monetarism, the mixture of which you likely know as "Reaganomics" today. Reaganomics was and still is a free-market Capitalist fiscal policy of which mostly centers around broad tax cuts and lessening regulations. It was at odds with the establishment Keynesian system, though the seemingly unending economic milieu had given the concept an major opening. At the time it looked more like something Calvin Coolidge thought up way back when, but it quickly became the Conservative's pet policy on economics.

Democrats still had a majority in the House, but there were enough Democrats willing to bend for Reagan to go through with his domestic plans. The House Democrats were mostly up north or out west, but there were still some lingering about the south or midwest. Most of them in the south were damn near Conservatives already, but they didn't change their party affiliation for one reason another. So while Reagan spent a great deal of time meeting and chatting Congressmen, the grand personality offensive Reagan undertook was perhaps not needed. Tax cuts were popular broadly among the average person so it was hard to deny even for those on the fence.

Obviously the policy wonks and die-hard Liberals never bought onto the program. Indeed, during the 1980 campaign Bayh hit Reagan hard on his economic theories. He called it "Roulette Economics" both because it was an untested gamble and also because it favored the wealthiest and because the Conservatives had little interest in letting the deficit grow unchecked so something was getting cut. And Lord knows the Conservatives never considered cutting the military budget.

Before even getting to tax cuts, Reagan had something especially important to proceed with. An executive order was drafted up. Informally titled the "Drill! Act" by critics, Reagan's first executive order was an attempt to solve or at least mitigate the issue of high gas prices and the shortages of gas all over the US. Due to the Iranian Civil War and the budding Arab War, oil prices soared and America lacked gas. The executive order itself opened up large swaths of previously protected areas of Alaska for oil speculation and drilling. This new policy paid its dues within a few years and the ensuing oil glut in the mid 80's did America well.

The order provided ill needed White House drama in the early days of the new administration. Jay Hammond naturally took the executive order poorly at first. It wasn't something he could prevent or realistically protest but it still hurt, damaging relations between the two men and preventing the two from even having a relationship deeper than an office friendship. But Hammond never dared to complain or get noticeably angry over it, he could see the lines at the pump practically every time he went out into public. People wanted to pay for affordable gas and they wanted to do it quickly. It was a bad state of affairs and it would take a great amount of time for the situation in the Middle East to be fully resolved.

It was after the executive order that tax cuts came to the table, and in mid 1981 the "Tax Relief Act of 1981" went into the House. It had to be moderated on a few issues here or there, but it passed easily and then promptly passed the Conservative Senate as well. The new law provided for a 25% cut for individual taxes over three years, several new exemptions and several reworked ones, and it also replaced depreciation system with the new ACRS system. Naturally this was not the final tax related law for the Reagan White House to push, but it was the first. To this day the Tax Relief Act of 1981 remains the steepest cut in taxes in American history.


Reagan's triumph: President Reagan signs the Tax Relief Act of 1981

Early on there was also a debate relating to New Federalism. New Federalism is a policy promoting a devolution of federal power to the states, particularly regarding social spending. Instead such issues are believed to be addressed by the states directly and any funding from the government would be via block grants, if at all. There is also the belief that something like education should be handled by the state individually and the Department of Education (Established under Bayh) would then be on the chopping block.

The debate was centered around Guaranteed Income and how/could it would relate to New Federalism. Ironically not a major supporter of Guaranteed Income, Vice President Hammond came around to the idea of a guaranteed income via the small movement that his place on the Presidential ticket caused. Guaranteed Income as a concept was one of major welfare reform. All welfare would be scrapped and replaced with a baseline of income. All people below this baseline of income would receive a cash payment. This acted as a "halfway" step for Conservatives who wanted to minimize welfare but who did not wish to or who understood the societal ramifications of doing away with it entirely. The concept of Guaranteed Income and its popularization to a debate regarding how such monies acquired and distributed within the ideological framework of New Federalism that was not solved under President Reagan and it persisted as a split in the party for the Conservatives for the time being.

The debate fell out of vogue when President Reagan looked towards the Middle East and began to stir up trouble on a more full-time basis towards the end of 1981. He got his tax cut. Now he wanted to get to bombing Soviets.

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By the time Reagan got settled into office Iran was already in the midst of a bloody civil war. In his first days he sent out feelers via some of his close advisers like Pete Williams and Donald Rumsfeld to the region to get an understanding of how things were on the ground. It wasn't going to be an easy task to undertake and therefore most of the Reagan White House's major actions in the region took place after the tax cuts.

The Reagan Administration wasn't sure exactly what path to take regarding the conflict. Both sides were fairly ugly. One were Communists, and therefore no good. Then there were the Islamists, who were by all accounts, fairly ugly people with firm anti-Israeli views. America considered Israel to be a close friend, at least the policy wonks did. Sometimes the relationship between Israel and America could be complicated however. Previously America backed Israel as the Arab states largely embraced Nasserism which was viewed as Pro-Soviet. But with Nasserism dead, perhaps it was time to reconsider certain aspects of American foreign policy? Reagan himself wasn't sure and would spend a great deal of time meeting with various foreign policy policy theorists before he came to a decision.

Regardless of what Reagan did or did not do, the conflict in Iran continued without them. The world never stops spinning for anyone. By the time Reagan was in charge and ready to act, the situation on the ground had changed decisively from where it had been in the later stages of Bayh's Presidency.

Since the People's Mujaheddin, a pseudo-Islamic Marxist guerrilla group, descended upon the capital atop pick-up trucks the communists' luck had turned for the better. While the Communists were very much fragmentary and fighting themselves almost as often as the Islamists, they had the benefit of the Soviet Union's patronage. Most communist organizations (The People's Mujaheddin not included) and secessionist rebels received the best the Soviet Union had to offer for proxy wars. With a steady supply of weapons, ammo, supplies, and vehicles, the Communist factions were able to put a strong defense against the ill-supplied Islamists.

The Islamists lacked the patronage of outside sources and were forced to rely on their own funds and procurement to obtain weaponry in the early days of the conflict. This was a major issue for the already embattled Islamist factions and jockeying for outside help did little to keep infighting under wraps. Indeed, not only were they under supplied and outfitted, they were also lacking a central leader. The vast majority of Islamist factions in the Civil War in one way were originally loyal to the martyr Ayatollah Khomeini and his Vilyet-e Faqih (government by Islamic jurists) ideology. But with Khomeini dead at the hands of SAVAK, there was a major power void with Islamists.

Most Islamist factions in the early stages in the war were led or dedicated to a particular religious scholar, typically one close to Khomeini. As a result, the ability for one faction to get along with another was entirely dependent on if the two scholars were able to work together or if they hated each other. Even the smallest of disagreements could result in bloodshed. For us it seems silly this was how it was done, but for this was a battle for influence, funding, and power. It was a game of life and death and no one was willing to accept defeat so easily.



The Iranian Civil War in 1981
Red is controlled by militant groups aligned to the Soviet backed National Salvation Government
Maroon is controlled by the People's Mujaheddin of Iran and other elements of the Iranian People's Republic
Green is controlled by various Islamist opposition factions
Brown is controlled by secessionist or nationalist groups
Blue is controlled by the Iraqi Armed forces

It would take time and centralization between the various factions before the Islamists would be able to create a developed fund raising and supply mechanism for themselves. The militants in Afghanistan's funding model was looked at as the long term goal of many factions. They had outside help from other parts of the Islamic world as well as a developed supply chain and fund raising mechanism on behalf of the Pakistanis and Americans. It was the goal most looked for since stealing from banks and paying troops in goods was a poor way to wage war.

The one thing that the Islamists did have over the communists, was that outside of cities and the two secessionist regions (Iranian Kurdistan and Iranian Baluchistan), the Islamists had the popular opinion on their side in rural areas and the vast majority of Iran in general. If the Islamists could find a way to form a front against the communists, the Civil War would end in less than a year due to a sheer difference in number. This was impossible so early though, militia conflicts tended to run deep and there was no dominant faction to order people around. It would take time for America to come around and sort things out.

Meanwhile, the Arab world watched as the situation began to be exported into other countries. Groups inspired by the Islamist factions in Iran made their own groups to influence their governments if not overthrow it outright. These groups were Shia at first and were primarily in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan at first, though even Sunni would find themselves inspired by the revolutionary spirit in Iran. It did not take long for the secular governments to notice these groups and attempt to reign them in. The Saudis gave out death sentences, the Iraqis cleaned out entire families. But it was never enough to stop them, not totally.

The first violent effects of this abroad were felt when a small group of Shia hardliners who left the Amal Movement in Lebanon launched a surprise attack on Syrian peacekeepers in the North, killing and capturing over 200 in a single night. This new faction took up the mantle Lions of Al-Libnaniyyah and they quickly became a thorn in the side of the practically every faction until their destruction in 1989.

It would not take long for Shia all over to embrace this violent form of Jihadism. One way or another they were going to topple their government, that much they were determined to do. But just as the Shia were becoming inspired, so were the Sunni. It would not take long for the Sunni and the Shia to be at each other's throats once the shooting started. They all knew this but it was considered a part of the struggle. To overthrow the secular governments, they would need to destroy the heretics as well.

The earliest Sunni led attacks inspired by the revolutionary wave occurred in Syria, early in 1982. Syria was a diverse country, but dominated by an Alawite minority. The Sunni majority resented this fact and it did not take long for the ideals of anti-secular jihad and anti-heretical jihad to find a home in the minds of Syria's Sunnis. A group of Islamist inspired militants who were officers in the Syrian army got together with other Sunni troops and round up all of the base's non-Sunni soldiers. The captives dug their own graves and were then shot. The military was called in and the militants were killed all killed by the loyalists, but it would not take long for groups to become inspired by the works of these terrorist forerunners both inside Iran and across the Middle East.

The Islamic Awakening was starting to spread and it would kill thousands before it was through. There was nothing anyone could do to stop it now. Pandora's box has been opened.

Just as the Islamic Awakening was beginning to boil over, so did the Arab War. Egypt had decided to join in the conflict and soon Egyptian boots would be on Yemenese soil. But only if the North Yemenese managed to hold out for long enough. They were barely holding on, with a lack of not supremacy on the ground and in the air. Soon North Yemen would cease to exist unless something saved them.

North Yemen had been on its last legs, but now with Reagan in White House and the Islamic Awakening about to explode onto the scene, they were going to see a reversal of their fortunes before the end of the war.

------

For those wondering Pete Williams is made up and no, Donald Rumsfeld never said that.

Now I'm not sure if I'll be able to put out another post for this week. If I get the chance to do so, I will. In Part 4 (which is entitled "Boiling Point" as writing this) we'll get our first update on the situation in the Soviet Union, so maybe I can get it out sometime before Christmas as a "present" or something like that. We'll have to see.
 
Okay guys, we're caught up here. I'll update this TL in tandem with the version of Alternate History. I hope you guys enjoy it.

There will be a new update sometime this week.
 
TUE

Very interesting TL although sounds even more depressing that OTL. Wonder how things will develop and how long the Conservatives will be in continous power. [Very nearly said Republicans there. :)]

You mentioned the new electoral system ending the 5 party system in a couple of places. Was that a typo for a 2 party system or am I misunderstanding something?

Anyway looking forward to seeing more. Thanks for this intriguing Christmas present. ;)
 
TUE

Very interesting TL although sounds even more depressing that OTL. Wonder how things will develop and how long the Conservatives will be in continous power. [Very nearly said Republicans there. :)]

You mentioned the new electoral system ending the 5 party system in a couple of places. Was that a typo for a 2 party system or am I misunderstanding something?

Anyway looking forward to seeing more. Thanks for this intriguing Christmas present. ;)
Thanks for the compliment.

It's not even close to being as bad as something like Rumsfeldia, but yeah the it's not as pretty as it could be. There's no nuclear war and the US is still a Democracy. But some things aren't as pretty.

As for the 5th Party System, it's how people (historians, really) delineate the eras of American politics. In OTL, the fifth party system covers when FDR took over in 1932 and there's some debate as to when it ended and if we're in the 6th Party System. In this TL of mine, the Conservative Party's formation definitively ended the 5th Party System. Fifth Party System - Wikipedia

If we were going to have something like a 5 Party Democracy then we'd need some more electoral reforms, particularly how we handled voting since First Past the Post makes a two party state pretty much inevitable.
 
Thanks for the compliment.

It's not even close to being as bad as something like Rumsfeldia, but yeah the it's not as pretty as it could be. There's no nuclear war and the US is still a Democracy. But some things aren't as pretty.

As for the 5th Party System, it's how people (historians, really) delineate the eras of American politics. In OTL, the fifth party system covers when FDR took over in 1932 and there's some debate as to when it ended and if we're in the 6th Party System. In this TL of mine, the Conservative Party's formation definitively ended the 5th Party System. Fifth Party System - Wikipedia

If we were going to have something like a 5 Party Democracy then we'd need some more electoral reforms, particularly how we handled voting since First Past the Post makes a two party state pretty much inevitable.

TUE

OK thanks for explaing. Its a chronological definition rather than a reference to the number of parties. A bit like the French republics.
 
If we were going to have something like a 5 Party Democracy then we'd need some more electoral reforms, particularly how we handled voting since First Past the Post makes a two party state pretty much inevitable.

As we all know, there are only two parties of note in the UK.

Part of this article (credit to @Ralson) makes a strong argument that the reason the two party system continues in America, is not because of inevitability, but because the US has a system of unquitely repressive electoral laws that make it near impossible for third parties to succeed.

Hell Canada, which has first past the post, has five political parties.
 
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As we all know, there are only two parties of note in the UK.

Part of this article (credit to @Ralson) makes a strong argument that the reason the two party system continues in America, is not because of inevitability, but because the US has a system of unquitely repressive electoral laws that make it near impossible for third parties to succeed.

Hell Canada, which has first past the post, has five political parties.
I'd also say a fair amount of luck was involved. Its not hard to imagine a Populist/Progressive party in the West, a Dixiecrat party in the South, or a Liberal Party in New England. While 3rd parties and Independents have had a presence in each, they generally bent the knee, often after one of the main party made concessions to their interests.

The biggest example being how after the Populist party picked up 5 states in the West in 1892, in 1896 William Jennings Bryan co-opted their platform to the point that he was both the Democratic AND Populist candidate for president. He did this even though the Cleveland 'Bourbon Democrat' coalition was much more electable, and if it weren't for Theodore Roosevelt splitting the vote, it'd have probably lost every election until the Great Depression.

However if the Democrats had stuck to the Cleveland coalition, while they'd have probably done better in presidential elections and in the east outside of the south than they did, the populists could've established a more solid foothold in the west, whereupon when the Great Depression comes around it could've been them who gained ground in the northeast from the GOP, not the Democrats.
 
I'd also say a fair amount of luck was involved. Its not hard to imagine a Populist/Progressive party in the West, a Dixiecrat party in the South, or a Liberal Party in New England. While 3rd parties and Independents have had a presence in each, they generally bent the knee, often after one of the main party made concessions to their interests.

The biggest example being how after the Populist party picked up 5 states in the West in 1892, in 1896 William Jennings Bryan co-opted their platform to the point that he was both the Democratic AND Populist candidate for president. He did this even though the Cleveland 'Bourbon Democrat' coalition was much more electable, and if it weren't for Theodore Roosevelt splitting the vote, it'd have probably lost every election until the Great Depression.
When third parties started seeing minor successes around 1900, the two parties responded by intensifying the laws against third parties, so none of that stuff would be possible with a divergance point later than, off the top of my head, 1930.

For awhile, the laws were so restrictive that the two major parties would be denied ballot access in many states today. They solved the conundrum by blatantly targeting "non major parties" rather than pretending there was any fairness.

It's pretty overtly undemocratic but we tolerate it with a combination of cynicism and falsely blaming FPTP.
 
When third parties started seeing minor successes around 1900, the two parties responded by intensifying the laws against third parties, so none of that stuff would be possible with a divergance point later than, off the top of my head, 1930.

For awhile, the laws were so restrictive that the two major parties would be denied ballot access in many states today. They solved the conundrum by blatantly targeting "non major parties" rather than pretending there was any fairness.

It's pretty overtly undemocratic but we tolerate it with a combination of cynicism and falsely blaming FPTP.

I don't think it's just that. I think that another important difference is that our parties are incredibly weak and have very little power to punish defectors. Parties in the UK and in many other countries have a lot of mechanisms to ensure that someone in the party will hold to the views of the party that US parties lack. Whereas US parties have huge power to remove external challengers, they have very little power over internal challenges.

This means that not only is it harder for a third party to work, entryism is much easier than it is in, say, the UK.
 
As far as FPTP goes, there is a tendency called Duverger's Law Duverger's law - Wikipedia that holds that plurality based elections in single member districts trend towards a two party state. There are obviously exceptions, such as Canada. But exceptions don't make the rule.

Obviously though, you are correct when you mention that there are other factors in regards to this. I'd argue it was a confluence of issues, of which FPTP likely helps feed into. If we had something that wasn't based on plurality then you would certainly see more third parties. How many you'd see compared to removing other restrictions on minor parties if something that could be debated. If you had something like IRV then areas that are thought of as solid Republican and solid Democrat could become fertile grounds for the Libertarian and Green Parties to compete in. Both locally and nationally.

Anyway, in more pertinent news, part 4 will likely be posted later today or ASAP tomorrow. I'm nearly finished editing it and I'm also about 1/2 way through writing part 11. Should be interesting once we get there. The working title for part 11 is Galatians 6:9.
 
4 - Part 4: Boiling Point
Once again, as before here is the post:

Part 4: Boiling Point

It took little time for Reagan to begin to look into foreign policy.

Indeed, within his 100 days he consulted extensively with foreign policy and military experts. Reagan had foreign policy ambitions as well as domestic ambitions. He was firmly anti-Soviet and wanted to destroy the "evil empire" in any way possible short of nuclear war. In this effort, he was leaps and bounds more of a hawk than Bayh ever even dreamed of being. So, when he wasn't helping push forward legislation such as the tax cut or other domestic issues, his efforts were squarely on the situation in the Middle East.

His administration even reached out to a particularly odd area, that of Democratic War Hawks. They figured even if they were Democrats, a more cohesive and informed policy would be formed with their inclusion. This naturally included many individuals linked to the Bayh administration and it registered in the papers.

"REAGAN OFFICIALS MEET WITH BAYH, JACKSON, OTHERS"
The room stunk, somewhat like mildew. Bayh couldn't be sure as to where it came from exactly but he had an idea. The purplish-blue carpet had a ugly looking stain on it. Had it not been cleaned up? Had the government been cut this much that they couldn't clean up damn coffee anymore? Why'd he accept an invitation to meet with Reagan? Numerous questions raced through the ex-President's mind.

Across the table two parties sat facing each other. Bayh was focused more on the stain than the conversation. He kept staring at the stain, unblinking.

"Well we've been mulling it over. You know the situation..." Al Haig stopped for a moment and looked over at Bayh. "Mr. Bayh?"

Bayh sobered up and refocused himself.

He didn't want to be there but Reagan insisted. Called him up on the phone and suggested he came in the interest of national security. Yet the bastard didn't show for his own meeting. Around the table there was just 7 folks.

On Bayh's side it was him, Scoop Jackson, Jeanne Kirkpatrick, and Tip O'Neil. It was a decent assembly for a meeting. A War Hawk, a foreign policy expert, a senatorial boss, and...an ex-president. He couldn't make out why he was invited. Foreign policy had never been his forte. But still, Reagan asked. So he came.

On the other side was Al Haig and two guys in military outfits he had never seen before. No doubt two blood thirsty militarists just like Haig. Ron's rhetoric towards the Soviets was in hard terms, harder than he had ever used. That's not to say that Bayh let them off easy, but he wasn't going on about evil empires or anything like that. He didn't have the stones for it. Sometimes Birch wished he had.

While Haig droned on and on about the situation in Iran and Afghanistan he considered the situation he was in. If he was being asked for his opinion on action in the region, then clearly there would be some nature of further action against the Soviets in Afghanistan and the Communists in Iran. But then why was he invited? And if he wasn't being asked for his opinion on action in the region, then why was he invited?

"We're considering giving material support to the anti-Communist factions in Iran." Haig said frankly. The words cut through the room and suddenly it was still. The anti-American and anti-Israeli attitudes of the Islamists was well known. There was no denying it.

"They hate Jews. Israel would never be okay with it." Jackson said brusquely. He was firmly pro-Israel so the idea of providing arms to people who were militantly anti-Zionist was simply impossible to support. Even if they did kill Communists. It was too much even a seasoned politician like himself to take easily and his typical friendly facade wore away just a bit.

"That's true. Israel would never go for it." Tip O'Neil added. Israel would never like it. Understandably so. Kirkpatrick cut in and delivered a remark that irked her mentor, Jackson.

"They can get over it. They had no issues with the Afghanis and they'll have no issue with the Iranians." Kirkpatrick had been mentored by Jackson and the two had a history together. She was a War Hawk just like him but she was starting to chafe due to ideological differences between the two. She was more interested in a strong defense against the Soviets than making nice with Israelis. Scoop's protection of Israel was foolish in her estimation. Making sure Afghanistan and Iran didn't fall to Communists was more important. She didn't care if they killed a couple of damn Israelis down the line either. Israel hasn't ever done America any favors. Not once.

Jackson let out a terse response: "Maybe."

The argument faded back into discussion between both sides of the table. Jackson did open up to the possibility of armament but he stuck to his guns and stated that full support out in the open and a defense for the anti-Communists' views would come back to bite them in the end. That was his reasoning at least.

Just as Bayh drifted back into day dreams, the twin doors on the end of the room swung open. It was Reagan and a small clique following behind him.

"Mr. President." Al Haig shot up like some bamboo and everyone else in the room stood up after him.

"Birch." Reagan said smiling. Bayh got up and the two shook hands. When he looked into Ron's eyes he knew exactly why Reagan invited him.

Reagan just wanted to rub it all in his face.

The meeting didn't last too much longer. They had already talked about what needed to be discussed. Bayh and the others went home afterwards and Bayh was left to consider where he went wrong as President the rest of his life. And left to remember the smile.

Bayh wasn't the only figure to be effected by the meeting however.

Jeanne Kirkpatrick was instantly enamored with Reagan after meeting him for the first time that day. The Democratic Party had nearly turned against Jackson's interventionist policies after Vietnam so she and other Hawks in the Democratic Party felt alienated, if not repulsed by the Democrats themselves. Reagan offered a strong foreign policy with a vision of a new America to boot. It was tempting to say the least.

As for Jackson, that particular argument with Jackson was merely evidence of the growing gulf between the two hawks. It didn't take long for her to walk away from the Democrats and be embraced by the Reagan administration and the Conservative Party. All she needed to do was make the phone call.


Jeane Kirkpatrick: "The San Francisco Democrats want to do exactly what the Europeans do: Blame America first!"

As for Reagan, he continued to have meetings regarding the issues in the Middle East as planned.

Just after the tax cut, Reagan started a large scale increase in aid to America's allies in the Middle East (including the Mujaheddin in Afghanistan) and a first shipment to Iranian Islamists. The shipment to Iran was small and really just a paltry offering to see who was interested and could be trusted. All of the Islamist factions that were approached accepted the aid but only a few seemed willing to deepen ties. More importantly, fewer seemed to be palatable for even Reagan.

Mohammad-Javad Bahonar was one of the figures that didn't make the cut. He was a very zealous leader and his militia had quickly raked up a long list of crimes against humanity over their brief existence. That isn't to say that other groups abstained from those sorts of acts, but rather that Bahonar's Warriors of Islam Brigade was so active in murder and slaughter that it was the bloodiest of any Clericalist Islamist faction in the conflict. After getting the American arms, the militia stormed a local university and slaughtered students there. They claimed that they were corrupt and dangerous, children of Zionism and impure Westernism. International News picked up the story but thankfully the then covert program wasn't unearthed by the Journalists. Reagan and the administration was forced to slow down the arms program now that they had been forced to come to terms with the people they were dealing with.

The situation was much more complicated than they had initially thought. Even inside of a single faction there could be multiple groups fighting for their own interests. The war in Iran was a bloody one and practically every section of Iranian society had a faction that represented their issues at least partially. What Haig realized was their major issue was less the fanaticism of the Islamists, and more so the lack of a unified faction for the to provide aid to directly. If there was a unified faction of forces loyal to the cause of fighting the Communists, Haig and the Reagan administration figured that if they could provide aid more directly and reduce infighting that they could easily win. Or at least give the Communists a run for their money.

So, Donald Rumsfeld departed to Saudi Arabia. There he met with representatives from a number of clerical militias. The non-clerical factions of which there were several were excluded from the deal. Both because they were simply too radical and because they disagreed with the clerical militias on very basic tenets of ideology. Additionally Mohammad-Javad Bahonar was not invited to take part in this coalition by the Americans. He was a bridge too far just like the non-clerical groups. He and they were marked down as factions to destroy along with the various secessionists and Communists.

Rumsfeld assembled the men around a table in a complex in Riyadh and they began negotiations. Though blood had been spilled the various groups who were closely associated with Khomeini were able to quickly come to terms with one another when presented with the possibility to get foreign aid. Though the war made the enemies in the beginning, they were ready to be allies once again. A few were not totally sure. Regardless though, they had some reservations on the deal.

First off, the Clerics wanted to exclude any secular groups from this unity force. This was something that Rumsfeld had been told that was already on the table. There was practically no factions that were both anti-Communist and anti-Secessionist, and of those there were few who had more than 100 members. So it was a given that the unity force would be an explicitly Islamist one. Second, the group wanted the US to move away from supporting Israel. Rumsfeld wasn't sure how to respond exactly. While he was aware of America's current Pro-Israel policy, he was also aware of the rising voice of Jeanne Kirkpatrick who increasingly pushed for a pivot in the Middle East. So he said that America could "seriously reconsider" its position with Israel.

He left them to stew for a bit and went to have some couscous from the buffet that had been set up in the room next door. By the time he came back with a filled stomach the Clerics agreed that they would form a unity force. To stand against the Communists. The exact relationship that they would have with the US when it was all said and done still uncertain.

This new unity force, the Shura Council of Iran (SCI), soon received aid at the docks of Bandar-e Abbas. By the truckload the aid was driven away from the docks to the each faction within the SCI. The US Air Force also occasionally provided air drops of supplies across Iran and Afghanistan to groups fighting the Soviets and Pro-Soviet groups but the focus in 1981 was most certainly in Iran. That was a fight that the US figured it could win. And soon.

The question then was how long could the Communists hold out? Facing against a unified, well-armed force that dwarfed their size made the situation for all other factions untenable. The Pro-Soviet groups found accord with one another and came together with their own front to battle the SCI. Still though, it was not enough to prevent the inevitable.

In summer 1982 the Shura Council of Iran launched a collective offensive. Previously the various forces were left to their own devices but a general desire to destroy the Communists arose among them after several notable victories in the South, driving Communists back towards the North. The offensive led to the Communist groups to fall back, even the tenuous Soviet-backed alliance fell into retreat and set up a line of defense in the North. If the Islamists wanted to get to Tehran they would need to get passed dug in defenders.

Now despite losing much ground, the Communists weren't necessarily on a path to failure. The many Communists were no strangers to guerrilla warfare and many established underground cells in the occupied territories. Indeed, insurgency became a problem with both the Kurdish and Baluchistani secessionist forces undertaking an underground insurgent strategy against the SCI.

Worse for the Islamists, they were beginning to fight among themselves once again. The factions realized rightly that whomever controlled Tehran would have a large amount of influence on the government after the Civil War was over. Several firefights broke out by forces loyal to different Clerics in the outskirts of Iran but it never accelerated to anything further than that. It did make Reagan (and the world) question if the SCI would stay together after the war however. An increase in aid from America mostly calmed them down.

In late October 1982, elements of Ali Khamenei's Islamic Martyr Units flooded into Tehran. The fight was long and hard. It did a number of Khamenei's forces and it was a Pyrrhic victory at best, with large sections out the city and Tehran's outskirts taken by other forces within the Shura Council of Iran. Still though, Khamenei managed to secure much of important sections of the city where government business used to be done.


The Iranian Civil War in late 1981; The Iranian Civil War in late 1982
Red is controlled by militant groups aligned to the Soviet backed National Salvation Government

Maroon is controlled by the People's Mujaheddin of Iran and other elements of the Iranian People's Republic

Green is controlled by various Islamist opposition factions

Brown is controlled by secessionist or nationalist groups

Blue is controlled by the Iraqi Armed forces​


And with that, most Communist forces fell back to the still remaining territories in the North. Those that didn't continue the stand-up fight fell underground to continue a protracted guerrilla war that would not see a definitive end until 2007.

It would not be long until all of Iran fell to the Islamists. But how would they manage losing their unifying enemy? Would Iran manage to be thrown into Civil War again? Could it manage to stay together? And more importantly, how were the Soviets going to react now with their forces routing in Iran?

------

Meanwhile in the Kremlin, plans were interrupted.

While Brezhnev and his political confidants were considering beginning military operations in Iran, the great General Secretary lost consciousness. He fell to the ground and despite an honestly grand attempt at saving the old glory hound he passed away in the hospital soon after. He had been ill for sometime and his health was declining rapidly since the late 70's. It surprised no one that he died so suddenly. Not even the Soviet public.

But what did surprise the Soviets was soon after Brezhnev the notorious security chief Andropov died as well. For what reason he passed it was never determined, just that he died. His body ceased functioning and that was the end of that. Perhaps from stress. Perhaps a heart attack. Perhaps because no one wanted to potentially KGB spook in charge since he was a contender to the red throne after Brezhnev's farewell.

Regardless, the one to take power after Brezhnev was not comrade Andropov, but instead Nikolai Tikhonov. He was a firm Brezhnevite Conservative and represented a continuation of that line. There would be no unexpected policy changes from him.


Soviet Joke: "I almost missed comrade Brezhnev but then I remembered we had another in stock."​

Unbeknownst to them, Tikhonov shifted the Soviets away from sending Soviet forces into Iran, something that Brezhnev was honestly considering in his final days. There would be a continual flow of supplies to the rebels in Iran, but no occupation for in Iran. Afghanistan was already turning out to be a slog and Tikhonov wanted to try to relax tensions with the West to perhaps lead to a negotiated peace in Afghanistan.

As far as Iran goes, He hoped just like the rest of the Soviet establishment that the Shura Council of Iran would quickly fall in on itself because of infighting. Until then all they could do was wait. But the waiting was agonizing for them. Continued issues in Afghanistan and the poor Soviet economic milieu in general gave them little hope for the future. It would seem that whatever opening the anti-American backlash against Vietnam had been wasted. Just gone. A couple uprisings, some angry college students, a few more votes at the ballot boxes. But still the blasted Capitalists persisted! It was days like these that made politburo members seriously doubt Developed Socialism. Oh comrade Brezhnev, have you failed us? Or have we failed you? Oh comrade Lenin, where did we go wrong?

For all the humor that can be attributed to the inaction and foolishness of the Soviet gerontocrats, Tikhonov deserves credit. His mind was active and he was looking for a new way forward. Even with all that Brezhnevite dogma holding him down. The question was of course then was if the new way forward was anything good.

Tikhonov considered his position and the Soviet Union's position. As for Tikhonov himself, he came to the conclusion that he needed to do some 'spring cleaning' in the government. Political enemies of his in the government were removed or resigned. The more dangerous move of this so-called 'spring cleaning' was his purge of the KGB. To purge the purgers was a mighty task. Andropov was (formerly) a KGB chief and his allies were still high in the KGB's food chain. Naturally they did not like him. It didn't take a genius to figure out that someone murdered Andropov and it didn't take much of a leap of logic to come to the conclusion that Tikhonov was behind it. He likely had nothing to do with it but the Soviet statesman's primary mindset beyond drunkenness at that point in time was paranoia.

Rather than risk the potential for the KGB bosses being tipped off Tikhonov used police for the purge. In KGB several major offices that housed the KGB's bosses, the Police busted down doors and hauled out the listed defendants. It was messy and dirty and there was a big chance that it could have failed. But in the end the KGB was reigned in and Tikhonov was able to place his lackeys in charge. To sum up the purge in such few words no doubt makes the event seem small compared to other events in Soviet history but in reality it was an exceptionally important event in reality.

The purge was a major change from past policy, as ever since the days after Lenin the security apparatus was a tricky and dangerous foe for any Soviet politico. Even Stalin had to be wary of their powers and there is no doubt that it fed into his dangerous paranoia. The security apparatus did have an important function to fulfill in Soviet society however. It was not a totally rogue force within the USSR, it had a purpose.. It was the state's domestic security and secret police, its spy organization, and it also balanced the power of the military. With KGB men attached to each unit it prevented the Soviet military from making any moves against the government. At least in theory.

Tikhonov's purge of the KGB was also accompanied by a general reform of the Soviet security-military balance. Tikhonov closely considered what path to take. If he weakened the KGB too much it would empower the military to insist upon the state, but if the army was too weak it could not do its job in Afghanistan nor balance against the KGB's powers. Tikhonov was by no means a reformer, but Andropov's death rattled him to the core. He wasn't the one behind it. The Soviet military-industrial complex had no doubt chafed under the KGB and its preceding organizations rule for decades.

So the General Secretary began a general reform of the KGB and the military. The KGB's standing armies were taken out of control of the KGB heads. They were retained as a "Security Detachment" who have explicit loyalty to the Party rather than superiors in the military or the KGB. The design was similar in concept to Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard. The Security Detachment would take away much of the KGB's military powers but it retain the ability to engage in subterfuge and it would not give too much power to the military. In theory this created a balance between the party, the military, and intelligence services. Albeit this balance was a potentially deadly powder keg waiting to ignite.

If Tikhonov had truly managed to reform the KGB and military was a feat that would only reveal itself in time. There would need to be stress upon the Soviet system for the test to occur. Thankfully for Tikhonov there would be plenty in little less than a decade.

In El Salvador and Africa, Tikhonov kept firmly on course. The massive increase in oil prices gave the Soviets a glut of funds and believed that the price per barrel would remain as inflated as it was, so finding funding for these foreign ventures was not difficult at all. All over South America and Africa the various groups and militias fighting for Communism received a great deal of weaponry and supplies. The effect of the spare change was most immediately felt in El Salvador and Guatemala where Communist rebels were previously riding on the edge. Both countries soon found their rebels sporting new weaponry that gave the old soldados a run for their money. Naturally it didn't take long for Reagan to toss more cash into their coffers, however with the tactics and improved weaponry of the rebels America's enemies could put on a dogged resistance and hold on for longer than they would have otherwise?

But could the Communist rebels win?

------

As the Iranian Civil War rolled to a close of conventional warfare against the Communists, the Islamists began seeing the effects of their efforts. Not just in Iran, but indeed all across the Middle East.

The earliest inklings of this change occurred only so long after the initial Revolution against the Shah. It led to an increase of political consciousness of Shia in and around Iran. It was as though millions of people woke up, reprogrammed with a new ideology. The Shia in Iran and Iraq were the most initially effected. Iran naturally had their uprising after the Communist coup, but Iraq was a different situation. The Hussein government was afraid of Shia influence in Iraq and played an odd balancing act with the religious groups of the country.

The initial signs in Iraq occurred as they would in several other countries over time. Firstly organizations were created. This typically ranged from political parties to underground militias. All of them were based around mosques however. They would typically grow in size until they commanded a decent enough power base and then they would enter some kind of conflict with the government as they were many times flagrantly against the secular governments where they resided. They wanted a velayat-e faqih (government by Islamic jurists) and typically repression of non-Shia Muslims. In states where the Shia were not a majority (most Islamic states) they desired a new state to be created for the Shia minority or sometimes a devolution of powers of the state to allow for Shia to be governed by other Shia.

Naturally this engendered an environment that was rife with anti-Sunni sentiment. It also tended to breed tribal or ethnic resentment in many countries as well. It wasn't long before the various groups inspired by the Islamic Awakening in Iran to undertake their own armed resistance to their secular governments and their various rivals.

The Sunni were also quick to develop a reaction to this. Typically they stuck as allies to their regimes in most countries. Due to the demographics of the Shia, they were a minority in many states and most Islamic countries that had the Sunni as a majority saw an increase in allegiance of their government by the Sunni. There were exceptions however. Some Sunni groups took a great deal of inspiration from the Islamic Awakening but did not take the Clerical velayet-e faqih into their own ideologies, so they would push for an Islamic government but they would ultimately avoid the Clerical components of the Islamic Awakening. Instead they replaced the ideological keystone with the dream of creating a new Caliphate. This happened all over the Sunni world but it flourished most strongly in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Syria, Bangladesh, Indonesia and India.

The various groups in Afghanistan were a unique case and were largely cut off from inspiration of the Islamic Awakening. This can largely be attributed to their existence and fight predating the Islamic Awakening and their relative isolation. As a result, the native Islamists of Afghanistan largely put tribalism and traditionalism over the creation of a new Caliphate.

They were naturally not the only outliers among the Sunni. In Syria most notably, the anger and resentment of the Sunni majority being suppressed by the Alawite minority which ran the government. The initial resistance against the government was sporadic and took place on behalf of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, a group that predates the Islamic Awakening by decades. But as the echos of the Awakening began to be felt in Syria, the Sunni awoke.

In late December, not long after the fall of Tehran, Syrian military forces who had broken rank and turned rogue marched into the capital of Damascus. The Al-Assad family escaped the fighting, much to the chagrin of the coup plotters, but Damascus was theirs. They quickly took to the TV studios and began to broadcast their message, asking for the Sunni of the nation to rise up and "Smite the heretics and infidels across the nation. Send the Alawite followers of Shaytan into the sea!" The minority religions, of which Syria had many, reacted poorly to the news. They were not particularly interested in getting slaughtered for one reason or another. The Sunni majority began to take power in the Eastern sections in the country where they make the clear majority but in areas where Alawites, Shia, Druze, etc were the majority they formed militias of their own and pledged allegiance to the Al-Assad government. It was a fight for survival on their part.

The groups quickly came into combat with each other, and with both sides not interested in backing down for fear of reprisals it turned into a Civil War.


The Syrian Civil War and Spillover into Lebanon, late 1983
Brown is controlled by the Syrian Arab Army or various supporting factions
Green is controlled by various Sunni Islamist factions

Orange is controlled by Kurdish forces
Purple is controlled by Israel and Christian Lebanese forces
Pink is controlled by the UN (Note: UNDOF areas not depicted)​

Lebanon was immediately effected by this new Civil War. Syrian forces were occupying a large part of the country in the North due to conflicts in Lebanon. Lebanon was actually in the middle of a civil war of its own though it gained a small amount of peace (if you could really call it that) since the arrival of peacekeepers occupying its territory. Once the news of the coup and the nature of said coup reached the ears of the Syrian troops in Lebanon all hell broke out.

The soldiers began fighting among themselves. The messages from Damascus created an air of suspicion among the various religious groups and it didn't take long for both sides to start attacking each other. Within hours the Syrian troops in Lebanon created numerous casualties and a new front in the Syrian Civil War. Entire military units broke down into sectarian bands, not sure if they could trust their old allies with the situation changed so drastically.

Lebanon itself was rocked by this change and a renewed wave of combat between the various factions as well as a splintering of Muslim factions (the Amal movement, Nasserites, etc) into both Sunni and Shia groups as Lebanon was quick to fall into chaos just as the Syrian soldiers had. The Israelis took this opportunity and quickly put even more pressure on the then frantic PLO. Lebanon was going back into flames and it would take Syria to finish her Civil War before it could find peace.

All the UN multinational force could do was look on.

------

What a trip. The whole middle east is in flames. I'm not too well read on the Lebanese Civil War so I tried my best on the map in that region. Always consider maps to be a rough approximation.

Next time: All about China, more on the Arab War, more troubles around the globe, more Ronnie and Jeane (maybe not, it might go the way of the dodo when I edit it). Part 5's working title: That which slumbers
 
Last edited:
And that's me for the week. I hope you guys are enjoying the TL. The Middle East is a big focus in the next few chapters so I hope that doesn't bore you guys hehe.
 
TUE

Well the chaos continues and continues to grow. The ME is going to hell even quicker than OTL and I can see the Shias in Iran piling into Iraq at some point or at least encouraging the Shia majority there with some of those weapons from the US. Which Saddam will not be happy with when he finds out.

Going to be very bad for the minorities, both religious ones and non-Arab groups like the Kurds. Also while it sounds like Tikhonov will avoid direct intervention in Iran but could see the communist possibly forming at least a loose alliance of conviencene with assorted secular groups and possibly even the Kurds for common defence and holding on for a long while.

How much of a deficit is Reagan running? He's probably spending even more than OTL on defence and military aid while there are some serious tax cuts and also the high price of oil because of the greater disorder in the ME is going to be bad for importers, including IIRC the US at this point.

The other big question is what butterflies have hit China? Is it still under relative moderates like Deng or are the extremists either in power [I hope not] or possibly still at least a significant political factor. Possibly ditto with Japan, is it still going to have a prolonged fiscal melt-down or possibly follow some different path?

Anyway, dark but very interesting TL and looking forward to seeing where it goes from here.

Of course there are a lot more Muslims than those in the ME. I notice you mentioned Pakistan and India and the latter could become very unstable but also areas such as Central Asia, Africa and Indonesia could get nasty.
 
TUE

Well the chaos continues and continues to grow. The ME is going to hell even quicker than OTL and I can see the Shias in Iran piling into Iraq at some point or at least encouraging the Shia majority there with some of those weapons from the US. Which Saddam will not be happy with when he finds out.

Going to be very bad for the minorities, both religious ones and non-Arab groups like the Kurds. Also while it sounds like Tikhonov will avoid direct intervention in Iran but could see the communist possibly forming at least a loose alliance of conviencene with assorted secular groups and possibly even the Kurds for common defence and holding on for a long while.

How much of a deficit is Reagan running? He's probably spending even more than OTL on defence and military aid while there are some serious tax cuts and also the high price of oil because of the greater disorder in the ME is going to be bad for importers, including IIRC the US at this point.

The other big question is what butterflies have hit China? Is it still under relative moderates like Deng or are the extremists either in power [I hope not] or possibly still at least a significant political factor. Possibly ditto with Japan, is it still going to have a prolonged fiscal melt-down or possibly follow some different path?

Anyway, dark but very interesting TL and looking forward to seeing where it goes from here.

Of course there are a lot more Muslims than those in the ME. I notice you mentioned Pakistan and India and the latter could become very unstable but also areas such as Central Asia, Africa and Indonesia could get nasty.
Well I can't give exact numbers or percentages, but yeah the deficit is/will be worse than what it was historically. The Middle East in general is a mess and I don't really cover it fully even though I spend like a quarter of the TL discussing it. Other Muslim majority areas are largely not covered much or at all. Not enough time or words to discuss it all. I had planned this out from the beginning and I didn't want to spend pages and pages going into detail of terror groups killing people so I leave most of it out.

I did a map a long time ago planning out where would be effected and how much.

Grey = Organizations inspired by the Islamic Awakening may exist but are negligible in influence and numbers
Blue = Organizations inspired by the Islamic Awakening were made in the country, little to no violent acts have occurred
Yellow = Organizations inspired by the Islamic Awakening were made in the country, low-intensity insurgency campaigns have occurred
Red = Organizations inspired by the Islamic Awakening were made in the country, insurgency have occurred
Black = Organizations inspired by the Islamic Awakening were made in the country, a civil war or high-intensity insurgent campaigns have occurred

^This map is by no means canon at this point and I'd change certain elements of it. But it does illustrate how wide reaching I had planned the maelstrom to be.

As far as China goes, they're actually addressed in the next chapter. There's a general history given from around the time of Mao's death into the 80's or so. I won't give it away though!

Oh and in regards to how dark this is, if you read some of the stuff on Alternatehistory.com this is outright optimistic. Rumsfeldia for example has Donald Rumsfeld become a dictator of the US. I do like Rumsfeldia and the like though, dystopian and dark centered TLs are easier to write imo because it's easier to break and destroy things with butterflies than building them up. In the future though I do want to do a very optimistic TL.

Well, nice to see the more shit changes, more the ME stays the same.
Well, I mean the Middle East has changed significantly. Just not in a good way.

If you're hoping for something more, shall we say, major in terms of changes, I can say that yes the Middle East has major divergences beyond what's already happened and US policy is changed in major ways as well.
 
Oh and in regards to how dark this is, if you read some of the stuff on Alternatehistory.com this is outright optimistic. Rumsfeldia for example has Donald Rumsfeld become a dictator of the US. I do like Rumsfeldia and the like though, dystopian and dark centered TLs are easier to write imo because it's easier to break and destroy things with butterflies than building them up. In the future though I do want to do a very optimistic TL.

You certainly have my interest, but I recommend caution in certain aspects of dark AH, a really good observation that I came across when reading For all Time was that people do indeed attempt to address their mistakes, whether they end creating new ones or simply mess up can be seen as being the heart of dystopia. In FAT for example much of the drama centred around how a good, honest man in chair a bit too big for him might damn the whole earth, leading the loss of the ideals the he so cherished.

Because of this I do hope that you will continue focusing on Reagan and on how his genuinely good intentions lead invariably to his downfall and on how his successors attempt to address these failings. Similarly it should also be remembered that the Islamic extremists are themselves a reform movement, how will they attempt to improve the condition of the Islamic world in these changed circumstances, if they gain power?

I did a map a long time ago planning out where would be effected and how much.

I personally don't really see Liberia being in better circumstances than a historically stable country like Ghana. Same could be said for Oman and Morocco. One of the factors of the rise Islamic extremism historically has been the failure of the Nasserites to destroy Israel, this factor becomes progressively weaker as one goes further from the Arab middle east.
 
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5 - Part 5: Our Little War
The post is what was posted on Alternatehistory.com with no changes. It also makes reference to a small but quite funny spelling error you guys didn't catch before I edited it on here. I ended up calling the Soviet genocrats "Soviet gynocrats" which of course has a very different meaning. I have also changed the format at which I do posts and now my posts are much, much smaller so that people can more easily enjoy them.

Part 5: Our Little War

As soon as Egypt promised to take part in the defense of North Yemen, the Arab war's scope was inevitably going to widen.

The Arab War in many ways could be compared to a regional version of WW1 and indeed Yasser Arafat once said that it was "our great war." The scale, while regional, allowed for many comparisons to the first world war. The complex geopolitical web and system of allegiances that did more to ensure conflict was one comparison. Another apt comparison was of course that the states themselves had many longstanding claims that ambitious leaders were more than willing to fight for them even if the average soldier had no interest themselves.

Thankfully for us all, the scale of the conflict both in terms of casualties and combatants did not challenge WW1 in any sense. Yet still, it had an incredible effect on the path of Middle Eastern civilization. Even today we feel the effects of the days of blood and oil.

The Arab Defense Coalition (made up of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait) arrived just in time to save the remains of North Yemen. On the map it was barely a sliver of territory and little in the way of metropolitan area beyond a few small towns on the Saudi border. Yet still, the government remained, trusting that their allies would come to their aid just in time. It was a major boost of morale to the North Yemenese troops, yet at the end of the day these soldiers were little more than desperate remnants of the military and hastily assembled militia. The Arab Defense Coalition was going to have to fight and finish the war.

Of this "grand coalition" the Egyptians made up the majority of the forces. Egypt was one of the regions foremost military powers, behind only Israel and Iraq. Therefore the Egyptian air force, army, and navy was the spearhead of the coalition. The other states, while certainly helpful provided little when compared to the Egyptians.

It must be said however that Kuwaiti logistical teams were indispensable in the reconstruction of North Yemen's infrastructure so as to facilitate the push southwards.

Still though the Egyptians did not send enough in the way of numbers to waltz into South Yemen and end the war as soon as the coalition hoped. The Arab Defense Coalition had believed that with a firm push to the south the inferior Southern Yemenese forces would melt away and a status quo ante bellum could be established. But the Egyptians could not bring all of the troops they desired, largely because of geopolitical concerns.

Egypt was on the watch out for their enemies in the region, most chiefly the Israelis. Despite Sadat's overtures to Tel Aviv, poor relations continued unabated. After a brief failed attempt by President Birch Bayh to bring the two together for a peace treaty both sides ended writing off diplomacy to solve their issues with one another. Egyptian forces on the heavily militarized Egyptian-Israeli border could not leave, the generals simply would not allow it. For all they knew, the Israelis would strike when they were in Yemen. The last thing Sadat wanted was Israelis in Cairo so he needed to deploy his forces carefully.

The other enemy was Egypt's other neighbor, Libya. While relations with Libya were never particularly peachy, the recent crisis in Yemen has seen diplomatic relations break down entirely. The Libyans staunchly supported the Southern Yemenese along with the Soviets and were South Yemen's chief supporter in the Middle East. Awkwardly enough, they provided aid via shipping through the Suez canal. This naturally provided a major issue for Egyptian policy makers to consider. While they couldn't just allow the Libyans to freely supply the South Yemenese they couldn't deny them access without risking a conflict.

Considering that the Egyptian military was spread thin, the policy makers smartly worked to defuse the situation via back channels.

Things went south when an Egyptian plane torpedoed a Libyan aid ship, mistaking it for a boat of South Yemenese origin. Qaddafi did not take the incident well, no matter how the Egyptian diplomats tried to sooth him. Even with the help of American diplomats did Egypt find no luck. Ultimately what Qaddafi wanted was more than an apology.

Qaddafi publicly demanded that his ships be unimpeded through the canal, and the removal of Egyptian forces in the Arab Defense Coalition. What particular calculus Qaddafi went through to come to the decision to ask for what basically amounted to capitulation is unknown, but it is theorized that he believed that the Egyptians would offer a counter-offer which could provide for a partial pull-out or perhaps even favorable terms in a peace treaty. Regardless, the Egyptians gave his threats no reply. It was simply a bridge too far for them to leave Yemen at that point.


The dictator Qaddafi: "The puppets of American Imperialism and Israeli Zionism must remove their forces from Yemen or face the consequences."

In the following days a military buildup on the Libyan-Egyptian border was noticed by international observers. Late one night when Egyptians forces were sleeping, the Libyans fired an opening salvo of Scud missiles, artillery barrages, and air attacks against the outnumbered Egyptian military. Before the smoke even began to clear Libyan forces began to stream over the border into Egypt.

The vast majority of Libyan forces were forced to cross the only conventional border crossing between Libya and Egypt, the crossing at Al Sellum. This highway continued for miles with few roads branching off. If Libya wanted to defeat Egypt they needed to speed down this highway and make it to the much more populated (and therefore important) areas of Egypt. As the Libyans expected however, Egyptian forces were able to slow them on the highway.

Qaddafi and his generals had another trick up their sleeves however. Bedouin fighters riding in technicals crossed the Libyan-Egyptian border and rather than following the conventional path, instead crossed the desert from Al Jaghbub to the Siwa Oasis. From there, the forces sped along roads before cutting north towards Cairo. In the plan, these forces would blitz into Cairo and force and send the Egyptian government into crisis. In Qaddafi's plans, his Bedouin gambit made the Libyan-Egyptian war last at most a week by the great revolutionary's modest calculations.

Mother nature had other ideas in store for Libya.

A localized sandstorm in the area the Bedouin fighters were to pass through slowed the sneak attack's advance to a crawl and caused a good deal of them to become lost in the desert. By the time the force reached its first target at the Siwa Oasis the main force had already ran into serious resistance from the best Egypt had on call. Crack Egyptian forces set up an emergency bulwark several miles west of Sidi Abdelrahman to prevent the invading Libyan force from having a straight shot to Cairo.

The Bedouin fighters who weren't swallowed up by the sands collected themselves at Siwa Oasis but Egyptian troops that were headed the same back route (but in reverse, looping around to the main highway) came into their path. The Bedouin fighters were hardy fighters, but they lacked the anti-tank weaponry to take down the more advance Egyptian forces there. They had been supplied and kitted for a blitz, mostly anti-personnel weaponry to take out police or paramilitary forces. What was left of the Bedouin forces routed back into the sands and Qaddafi's gambit ended there.

In the north, the two armies met just west of Sidi Abdelrahman. The Egyptian forces barely held the line against Libyan assault. The Libyans were constantly on the verge of overwhelming the Egyptians defenses and casualties were heavy. If the Egyptians managed to hold, they still wouldn't be able to mount a counter-attack. Their forces were too spread out and too spent. That was a major element of what Qaddafi was relying on. He hoped that if overwhelmed by his forces that the Egyptians were simply roll over and die for him. Assuming his blitz on Cairo worked, perhaps that would have been the case. Sadat and the military command would have ran and the forces that were the bulwark at Sidi Abdelrahman would have had to withdraw further to the East to retake Cairo. Libya's military planning was on the mark and perhaps only a fluke sand storm prevented their victory.

But there was some things that Qaddafi and his generals just got plain wrong. This was an exceedingly painful lesson for the Libyans. The plans did not take the potential of an Egyptian air response into consideration. This was because when the plan was first drawn up, the Egyptian air force had just arrived in Yemen and was fighting for air supremacy there. Qaddafi and his generals failed to consider the possibility of Egypt easily winning against South Yemenese pilots. Which they did. So when Egypt was under attack, their mostly repaired and rested air force responded in strength.

The Libyan columns that were advancing on the main highway were suddenly struck from above. They were being strafed and bombed from what must have felt like every direction for the man on the ground. The highway was soon littered with burning wrecks from the Libyan columns. Libyan air forces performed struck back and the two groups turned their interests to scrapping over the battlefield rather than attacking ground forces.

Using recalculated artillery barrages as a cover, Qaddafi gave the order to withdraw. Libyan forces quickly turned tail but only so many were able to escape with the burning hunks of military vehicles blocking off parts of the highway. Libyan forces that were stuck in the column would continue fighting for another 2 days all along the highway as many attempted to make their way back to their homeland on foot.


Sadat visits the site of the battle several days later

Still though it was not a definitive opening to the war for either side. Qaddafi's invasion force was pummeled and regrouping but it had plenty of other troops to watch the border for them. The Egyptians managed to hold off the invaders but at an incredible cost, the Egyptian army still in Egypt was devastated and its air force was limping after a deadly battle in the sky. Even worse for Egypt, their force sent south to flank the Libyan column failed to reach its objective on time because of a battle with Bedouins in the South. They could have delivered the killing blow to Qaddafi's forces if they had managed to flank the withdrawing invaders.

It would take time for both forces to recover enough to continue the war beyond artillery call-and-response across the border or air skirmishes in the skies over the deserts however. If either side was to win they would need to push the other side to oblivion.

And America was more than willing to help the Egyptians, especially if they could get payed in increasingly expensive oil – something Egypt and her allies could procure a great deal of.

------

I've decided henceforth to separate chapters into smaller sections so that people can enjoy the TL in smaller bites. Each post should now be just over 1k words although some will tend as high as 3k in the future. Hopefully you guys like this format more than the old one.

Also, sorry for being late on this post guys. I've been busy and when I wasn't busy I didn't feel like editing it. Anyway the next post, or section, or whatever will come out sometime this week. I can do something like 2 posts per week now because of the smaller size. I may be able to fit in 3 as that's the size I'd technically be doing usually. But just expect 2.

I hope you guys are enjoying this. Next post is indeed regarding China and it goes in an interesting direction - at least I think.

Apologies if there's any errors in this, I just want to get this out ASAP for you guys. Hopefully if I got anything wrong (spelling or otherwise) it's as funny as "Soviet gynocrats" was.
 
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You certainly have my interest, but I recommend caution in certain aspects of dark AH, a really good observation that I came across when reading For all Time was that people do indeed attempt to address their mistakes, whether they end creating new ones or simply mess up can be seen as being the heart of dystopia. In FAT for example much of the drama centred around how a good, honest man in chair a bit too big for him might damn the whole earth, leading the loss of the ideals the he so cherished.

Because of this I do hope that you will continue focusing on Reagan and on how his genuinely good intentions lead invariably to his downfall and on how his successors attempt to address these failings. Similarly it should also be remembered that the Islamic extremists are themselves a reform movement, how will they attempt to improve the condition of the Islamic world in these changed circumstances, if they gain power?

I personally don't really see Liberia being in better circumstances than a historically stable country like Ghana. Same could be said for Oman and Morocco. One of the factors of the rise Islamic extremism historically has been the failure of the Nasserites to destroy Israel, this factor becomes progressively weaker as one goes further from the Arab middle east.

I appreciate your interest.

The things that Reagan and his successors cause are addressed much more thoroughly in a later segment. Reagan is actually a little underutilized I think. I'd go back and do rewrites but I'm not totally sure how I'd like to approach that right now. As far as dystopias go, this actually isn't one. Or rather, I don't plan on it being one. It's a world with a negative projection but not a dystopia if you get what I'm saying. It's an attempt to putz around with the concept of there being a 'high noon' of human civilization, that being already passed. Or maybe not.

Oh and in regards to Islamism. I don't address much domestic policy beyond that of the US and occasionally the Soviets. It would be interesting but ultimately too much to address the domestic politics of a whole bunch of countries. I had started this basically on a lark for Nanowrimo because I wanted to actually finish a TL recently and there was a lot of stuff I didn't talk about that I wanted to because I just didn't want to go crazy with the amount of words. I've already finished over 50k words and I'm only at 1991. I actually had a couple things I had to remove in the later portion of sections I still had to write but I didn't feel like it added anything or made any sense. Mostly regarding Communists in South American and Africa.

And yeah that map is screwy and isn't canon. It was just something I was doing a mockup I made a long time ago.
 
Another post. As per usual, no changes from what appeared on Alternatehistory.com. I'm happy you guys are enjoying this. The thread over there has kinda slowed down so technically I see more regular activity in the thread over here rather than on AH.com. So maybe you guys like it more than they do.

Part 6: That which slumbers

China was in the process of change, come late 1976. The radical Maoist faction that led the Cultural Revolution was beginning to look shaky as Chairman Mao became more and more ill. This compounded upon itself with the appointment of moderate Hua Guofeng to the position of Premier in an apparent change of policy from helmsman Mao himself. It led to a brief back and forth between the radical Maoist faction and the more moderate clique lead by Hua.

After the initial Hua Guofeng kerfuffle the mood calmed down, at least it seemed to.

In early September 1976, Mao died. Instantly this rift reopened again. It was now a fight to see who would inherit China, not just who had Mao's favor. The anti-Hua radicals who controlled the party's media quickly began promoting Mao's "principles laid down," making a clear endorsement of Maoist policies up to the end of Mao's life. This included things that the more moderate faction had no interest in, most prominently the Cultural Revolution. Additionally urban militias under the influence of the radicals were put under high alert, they were expecting a fight.

Hua Guofeng was not going to take the provocations lying down, nor was he going to allow power to slip out of his grasp. He quickly launched an attack against the radical media line and ordered a meeting between him and several of the radical faction. One of them was Jiang Qing, Mao's widow. She demanded that she be made the new Chairwoman and the two nearly came to blows over the issue. It was clear that it was everything or nothing in this new struggle.



A pro-moderate poster made not long after Mao's death: "The Revolution still has a helmsman!"

In Early October, the Radicals took their chance. They had Hua and his supporters arrested via orders to the internal security department, the secretive Unit 8341. Hua and his supporters were easily apprehended by the troops and were jailed. It didn't take long for the radicals to start their old Cultural Revolution style denouncements regarding the defeated moderate faction.


"DOWN WITH THE HUA-DENG-YE ANTI-PARTY CLIQUE"

"REVERE CHAIRMAN MAO; DENOUNCE THE COUNTER-REVOLUTIONARIES"

"OPPOSE THE GANG OF THREE"

Jiang Qing, Zhang Chunqiao, Yao Wenyuan, Wang Hongwen, Chen Boda, and Mao Yuanxin formed the basis of the new party power structure in the wake of the coup. With the leading moderates in chains, it did not take long for the rest to either fall in line or end up being removed. The new vacancies caused by the coup were filled by supporters of the radical faction, of which a number were former Red Guards.

Jiang Qing was eager, perhaps too eager to be named Chairwoman. As a result of poor politicking and cultural issues regarding woman her time as leader was short. Less than a year. She quickly alienated members of the military and her own faction by the continual and constant radical speeches in favor of restarting the Cultural Revolution in full. Red Guards and all. At that point however the moderates, while cowed, would not eagerly submit to continuing the Cultural Revolution.

Others within the radical faction began to prepare to remove her. The political capital of her being Mao's widow was quickly expended and it too little time for the sharks to begin circling the old actress.

The young Wang Hongwen was one of these sharks. He had become a darling to the military for his close support preventing a purge on the orders of Jiang, though this was not ideological on his part. He normally would endorse such measures, but he had little interest in empowering the widow of Mao. As far as he was concerned I was time for him to rule. With the help of the military and militia, in late summer 1977 Jiang Qing and several of her close allies were jailed and Wang was promoted further up the ranks – all the way to the top.


Wang Hongwen at the time of his ascent to power over his rivals.

It did not take him long to renew the Cultural Revolution. However this new Cultural Revolution was different. It was entitled the "Patriotic Revolution" and promoted the military and the beginning the struggle against revisionists and capitalists all over. The new Red Guards were now closely managed by Wang and his close allies, with those getting too powerful (even those who supported Wang) being removed from power and denounced. It was a controlled chaos. The vacancies were always filled quickly with new sycophants typically from the Red Guards or the Military. In the 80's, purges occurred at a rate of 1 per every two years, typically sweeping up old powerful figures and young ambitious Red Guards up and removing them from the system.

This "Patriotic Revolution" of course can be compared in many ways the North Korean Juche system which was promulgated only 3 years later at the 6th Congress of the Worker's Party of Korea. It's commonly agreed that the similarities between the Wang-Mao "Patriotic" Communism and Kim Il-sung's Juche were the result of deliberate copying by Kim Il-sung from his neighbor. Both embraced a military first emphasis, a fiercely nationalistic viewpoints, and venerated the founder of their respective states in an almost religious factions. The North Koreans however stuck largely to the Soviet economic model and avoided anything even remotely Maoist in their policies.

Just like Kim Il-sung in North Korea, Wang Hongwen's dominance over the political system of China was extreme. Soon his face and image appeared as much as, if not more than Chairman Mao. He was so strongly promoted by the government that the Red Guards were strongly centered around him and only him. The military could not touch him, the militias could not touch him. However with rising radicalism just as before, Wang standardized the Red Guards and made them a part of the system. He broke major ideological barriers over and over again but no one would willingly oppose him. Not openly at least. Wang expertly played the four powers of the government (party, military, militia, red guard) off one another and kept all of them in his control.

And so, in the most powerful position in China with little to oppose him what great reforms did he undertake? None.

Despite his powerful control over China Wang quickly grew politically inert. Beyond the diligent creation of his personality cult, Wang undertook little in the way of great reforms or projects. No great campaigns for killing pests, no true great Cultural Revolution – just a stick to beat enemies with and retain good relations with the military. China was calm, at least. Outside the halls of power at least.

Oddly enough, Wang did not fall to corruption or decadence either, just extreme narcissism. A perfect example of this would be Wang's grand mausoleum for Mao. In Mao's home province of Hunan, on the banks of the Xiang river, a large statue about 30 feet in width of Mao's head cast in gold makes up the topper for a tower at which the bottom there is a entrance to a subterranean complex. The complex doubles as mausoleum to Mao and also a museum dedicated to his life. Due to political demands from Wang, the museum cuts almost all personas (especially his widow) from Mao's story except for the villains he faces and his heir, the magnanimous Wang Hongwen.

These sorts of overbearing projects were common in Wang's China, more for the sake of propaganda purposes than anything else. Large dams, mining complexes, advances in rocketry and nuclear technology were all done for the sake of propaganda rather than for real economic gain. Whether or not these undertakings will prove to be anything other than monuments to propaganda has yet to be seen, but they are indeed a costly venture no matter how you look at it.

Beyond this, additional support was given to Maoists abroad whenever Wang fancied himself in a martial mood. In Afghanistan in particular, Maoist groups that had been fighting on their own previously were given direct aid from Beijing to assist in destroying the Soviet imperialist project on the Soviet-backed Afghanistani government. It was received poorly by Washington even though the Maoists were not friends with the Soviets but regardless Wang continued forward. Like other Maoists, he considered conflict between Capitalism and Communism to be inevitable and therefore improving relations with the American dogs was a complete waste of time. Opposition to America was also naturally a major element of Wang's Patriotic Communism.

This also caused concern in India where Maoist Naxalites have been causing the government more than their fair share of trouble. The Naxalites had found themselves pushed even further underground after the Indian government's successful Operation Steeplechase which dealt the Maoist rebels a serious blow despite Chinese aid. However the peoples of the so-called "Red Corridor" were not easily defeated and it would take much more than just one successful operation for the Naxalites to give up the struggle. Despite aid from China the Naxalites remained under supplied and under trained. This was due to the Naxalites having an underdeveloped logistical system and also the distance from the border with China limited Wang's China from giving as much as they would like.

Africa and South America also saw an increase in Maoist aid. Wang predicted, perhaps rightly, that the next area for Maoism to take root was Africa and South America. Both regions had an ample rural portion of their population and a low standard of living. If Maoism was spread and took root in those regions Wang reasoned that the regions would have a revolutionary wave that would spread across the developing world. With Wang as the master at the center of it all.

As far as military matters go, Wang remained largely ambivalent. While he technically had the military under control, he did not have the same total control that he had over the civilian government. If Wang attempted to purge the military they could strike back with force, but if the military tried to depose Wang the Red Guards and militia would fight back. The military could not find a suitable person to help in a coup against Wang because of how often dissenters were purged and how desperate members of the government were to stay in Wang's good graces. So there was a cooperative sense of understanding of both sides. Wang stayed out of internal military affairs and made sure the budget and recruiting numbers were good, the military stuck faithfully to Wang's domestic and international agenda.

After all Wang needed the military to defend and invade enemies and the military needed Wang for funding and excuses to use their new toys. It was no coincidence then, that Wang engaged in a retaliatory war against the Vietnamese.


Chinese soldiers in Vietnam

After the Vietnamese invaded the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, the Chinese had lost patience for the upstart Vietnamese who thought that they could do whatever they wanted as long as they had Soviet backing and promises of defense. Issues with claimed territory by China and also Vietnam's treatment of ethnic minorities was also a reason. But the primary goal, more than anything was to dissuade the Vietnamese of further aggression in Cambodia and prove to the world that the Soviets could simply not save Vietnam if the Chinese wanted to attack.

The was ultimately inconclusive as the Chinese military was unable to penetrate very far into Vietnam due to the Vietnamese military's tenacious fighting. Additionally, the PRC's military was simply not in the best fighting shape and after the forces in Vietnam was exhausted during a second push to Saigon the venture was abandoned. The Chinese made out well in the peace deal however. They kept some of the land that they occupied at the Vietnamese-Chinese border as well as Vietnam's concession of the her claims to the Spratly Islands. Sadly the Vietnamese could not be dissuaded from attacking the Cambodians in the end, the conflict would continue unabated. And considering that the Soviets did not intervene and could World War III, it wasn't too bad of a trade off in the end.

------

And there you go folks. The Chinese update I had promised for some time is here.

I've decided that I like the format of smaller posts like this so I'll be keeping with this format. The next post is quite small (unless I decide to majorly add onto it) so it'll easily be out this weekend. Perhaps as early as this Saturday. This weekend without a doubt.
 
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TUE

Well that is a huge butterfly. Looks unlikely that China will become the economic giant it has OTL, at least not on the same schedual. Also the question is will Wang be replaced by another egotist, having established a 'tradition' or will there be a change. Given how bad the situation was for ordinary people in China by Mao's death things are unlikely to get better as they did OTL. Also I suspect the one child policy won't be implemented, which may have longer term benefits of avoiding some of the problems China is facing now demograhically but will only make matters worse in the short and medium term.

Steve
 
7 - Part 7: SHAKA and Reagan
As per usual it appears as it does on Alternatehistory.com.

Part 7: SHAKA and Reagan

It was inevitable after Tikhonov's enhanced support for rebels that Southern Africa would be put into dire straights. In 1978 the second to last White Minority state in Africa succumbed to native fighters, demanding an end to racial supremacism in the government. And so Rhodesia would become Zimbabwe-Rhodesia and with the victory of the leader of the ZANU group, Zimbabwe-Rhodesia would just become Zimbabwe. By the late 80's, Robert Mugabe would become Zimbabwe's autocrat, not a friend of the South African regime.


Africa's newest liberated nation: Zimbabwe

In the early 80's the last white minority state left in Africa was then South Africa. It was a state that was deeply embedded with racial supremacism in its very core of being. They were anti-communist however, and considering the status of Zaire's military, the only anti-communist in the region that had a worthwhile military. Its racial apartheid made the concept of open friendship with the state practically impossible for the US, but Reagan was willing to give support to enemies of the Soviets. At least to prevent the spread of Communism, for if the ANC got their way South Africa would likely become a pro-Soviet satellite state at worst, at best a state like India that was officially neutral but was generally pro-Soviet. Clearly. Therefore according to Kirkpatrick and Reagan's reasoning, it was best to support the regime.

In Angola America already gave support to anti-Communists, and in Mozambique the US would come to provide discreet aid to the RENAMO rebels from time to time, but no aid went directly to South Africa prior to Reagan. South Africa however was in desperate need of aid at the time. Diplomatic issues and near constant involvement in wars in the continent as well as the sudden flare-up of conflict in South African occupied Namibia contributed to an increasingly rough economic and social situation. In late 1983 as Reagan considered aid to the regime, it looked like South Africa might not survive a decade more unless there was a serious change of fate.

The concern Reagan had, the only concern he had regarding the risks, was the effects of such support would have upon his approval rate. 1984 was an election year after all. Ultimately a small number of shipments of aid, most of it medical supplies arrived discreetly in South Africa in early 1984. If there would be anything further, Reagan would need to seriously consider what he could gain from giving aid and what he could lose by being discovered. If he was discovered, it could be a very serious controversy. It could seriously damage his reelection campaign.

And Reagan had not interest in being a second Bayh.

Going into the election however, Reagan's odds looked good. He was polling well and it didn't seem like there would be anything close to an upset. So Reagan ordered a few more shipments, these containing more military supplies than medical. The South African government thanked Reagan gratefully and dutifully kept the deliveries under wraps. They knew how controversial it was and they knew that if they opened their mouths on it they wouldn't get anymore aid from anyone. Though naturally it was a question if you could ever totally hide such shipments from the news media, the KGB, civilians, whistle blowers, etc. There was a high chance of blow back and Reagan knowingly took the chance, knowing both the risk and exactly what kind of system he was propping up. That wasn't something Reagan or his administration considered an important thing to consider.

With the increase of Soviet (and now Chinese) aid, the domestic situation even within South Africa proper began to fall apart even more than it was already. In KwaZulu, the bantustan of the Zulu people, a new Maoist organization funded by arms and dollars from Beijing started a new guerrilla war similar to that of other South African freedom fighters. They intended to wage a people's war similar to that of the Naxalites and slowly expand their reach until one day they could overthrow the government. The group didn't take long to attract the government's ire and soon a new military campaign opened up in KwaZulu. South African forces flooded in and the Maoists hid, letting the SADF walk into their ambushes and booby traps. South Africa was falling apart, and to the outside observer it looked like they were going to be forced to submit to the freedom fighters sooner or later.


Fighters of the African Liberation Front (Maoist), KwaZulu, 1987

But the South African government planned to hold on regardless of America's help or not. They had no interest in allowing Blacks and Coloreds any representation in their government. Never mind allowing them to mingle with Whites. And the South Africans had a way of ensuring this. With the assistance of the Israeli government, the South Africans had developed a rudimentary nuclear weapons program which complemented a chemical and biological weapons program. These programs would form White South Africa's final line of defense against those who threatened to tear down the system of White supremacism in the country.

The only question was if they were really willing to use them.

In regards to that, only time could tell. If cool minds prevailed the system would likely fall apart but if they didn't, then it would be a massacre of unprecedented brutality and on an incredible, horrifying scale.

Some day South Africa would fall. The question then is when, and by who's hand? And even more importantly, could it survive the aftermath?

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As stated previously, this is a short post so I was able to get it out easily. This might actually be the shortest, if not one of the shortest, that I put out for this TL.

I had considered adding one of those cut-to narratives that I did previously in the TL to this post but I decided against it. Both so that I could get it out earlier and also because I didn't really feel like there was a reason to include the planned Reagan-Jeanne Kirkpatrick chat on foreign policy.
 
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TUE

Well that is a huge butterfly. Looks unlikely that China will become the economic giant it has OTL, at least not on the same schedual. Also the question is will Wang be replaced by another egotist, having established a 'tradition' or will there be a change. Given how bad the situation was for ordinary people in China by Mao's death things are unlikely to get better as they did OTL. Also I suspect the one child policy won't be implemented, which may have longer term benefits of avoiding some of the problems China is facing now demograhically but will only make matters worse in the short and medium term.

Steve
Well there's only one more post planned talking about China. It hasn't been written yet and is planned to addressed what happens to Wang after he passes in the 90's of cancer. I was thinking of having it end up transforming into some sort of odd Titoist wonderland somehow but now that I think about it, that's not my favorite option. I think I have an idea that might be more fun. I won't tell, but it should be fun.
 
Yeah, SA needs to either reform or get ready to find out what happens when the populace has little to lose.
 
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