What if commercial fusion power was developed in the 1970s alongside fission power?
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Vadrigos | 2 |
Depends on what you mean by 'cheap fission reactor'. No realistic fusion core would be cheaper than something like the Chicago Pile, and current tokamak designs are looking like they'd cost as much as an entire plant's worth of equivalent fission systems. On the other hand, fusion reactors don't need to be nearly as rugged as their failure mode is 'hydrogen fire' rather than 'radioactive deflagration'. Additionally, one of the biggest hurdles to practical fusion power has been getting the energy out, as historic designs have been thermal systems like fission and fossil-fuel plants, so the divergence probably includes some form of direct generation methodology like magnetic flux generation, which would also push costs down overall.By cheap do you mean cheaper than fission? Fusion is by its nature more difficult than fission, so if we're considering a realistic fusion reactor it probably wouldn't be cheaper than a cheap fission reactor.
Depends on what you mean by 'cheap fission reactor'. No realistic fusion core would be cheaper than something like the Chicago Pile, and current tokamak designs are looking like they'd cost as much as an entire plant's worth of equivalent fission systems. On the other hand, fusion reactors don't need to be nearly as rugged as their failure mode is 'hydrogen fire' rather than 'radioactive deflagration'. Additionally, one of the biggest hurdles to practical fusion power has been getting the energy out, as historic designs have been thermal systems like fission and fossil-fuel plants, so the divergence probably includes some form of direct generation methodology like magnetic flux generation, which would also push costs down overall.
So cheap fission as in 'barebones, uncontained safety hazards' then. Because you've repeatedly made it clear you think basic safety requirements are 'useless red tape' in other threads. Conincidentally, the USN is one of the biggest investors in fusion research and the leading experts in what constitutes a safe fission reactor. Standards that, oddly enough, you don't like...I mean cheap fission as in not strangled to death by red tape. I suppose it's possible fusion would end up cheaper by fission remaining red taped to death, but for things like warships that's not an issue so fission would probably remain standard.
So cheap fission as in 'barebones, uncontained safety hazards' then. Because you've repeatedly made it clear you think basic safety requirements are 'useless red tape' in other threads. Conincidentally, the USN is one of the biggest investors in fusion research and the leading experts in what constitutes a safe fission reactor. Standards that, oddly enough, you don't like...
So clearly clarification is required:
By cheap fusion, I mean a cluster of four or more toukamak fusion reactors (plasma torus design for the uninitiated) that, thanks to some anomalous scientific goosing towards certain narrow avenues of research by the Deparment, is able to compete with the productive capacity of 3-mile island's power plant operating at peak capacity, with the added benefit of increased safety should the worst happen.
The general idea is that none of this is specifically anomalous technology; merely the speed at which the vital data and theory was developed is. Primary ignition is achieved around 1956, with positive energy output following in 1965. Commercial viability is confirmed in 1970, and the first plant is opened in Albuquerque in 1972.
I think oil would still be a valued resource in this scenario, with the politics that implies. Oil is primarily valuable as a vehicle fuel. Since the OP specified the fusion reactors are too big to stick in things like cars and trucks, unless this alternate history also sees precocious development of battery technology or something like that, oil would still have that niche.
After that, a lot depends on how much the historical trajectory of fusion power diverges from the OTL historical trajectory of nuclear power. Plausible options range from "fusionization of most national energy grids in the time span 1970-2000, very significantly different and better world" to "fusion gets nerfed by the same political and economic factors that nerfed nuclear OTL, we basically get OTL but with an additional layer of 'scientists remind public that clean energy is ready to go whenever.'" I think fusion would have less of a waste and potential contamination problem, since the reaction product is helium instead of radioactive heavy metals? I expect fusion to become a target of the anti-nuclear movement anyway though; I suspect a lot of this will come down to PR campaigns and the timing of events that influence them. On that note, I guess the 1970s is relatively lucky timing for a new "better" form of nuclear power to be rolled out, assuming the 1970s oil embargo still happens in this scenario; never mind that this new technology isn't directly applicable as an oil-replacement, the public will be relatively positively inclined toward a new energy source.
Assuming we get the relatively optimistic scenario, the biggest difference is likely going to be global warming being much less of a problem. With widespread fusionization starting in the 1970s I expect CO2 emissions to be way below their OTL levels by 2000. There will still be some, because there's likely to still be a lot of oil being burned as a vehicle fuels (about 1/3 of OTL emissions IIRC), but the problem will be much less bad and less urgent. Here's the first graph Google turned up for atmospheric CO2 increase over the twentieth century; this scenario would diverge from OTL around 1970, when CO2 looks to have been about 320 ppm; assuming gradual fusionization over the next few decades, I'd guess 2020s CO2 levels might be something in the region of 350 ppm; not far from 350.org's (in OTL very utopian) target.
The Ford-class CVNs' A1B reactor is around a billion per unit and run on weapons-grade HEU. Sure that's cheaper than commercial units, but it's not because they have fewer safety measures. It's the weapons-grade fuel I mentioned, combined with the fact that they, like other naval reactors, were designed to be produced on-mass unlike commercial units.No, USN naval reactors are a good example of how efficient fission can be. They're pretty good cost to power.
Uh, tokamak won't get you commercial-scale fusion power. They need beryllium to turn thermal neutrons into heat, and beryllium isn't cheap. Like, the current world annual production is enough to build one reactor. They also get as radioactive as fission reactors, negating much of the advantages of fusion.So clearly clarification is required:
By cheap fusion, I mean a cluster of four or more toukamak fusion reactors (plasma torus design for the uninitiated) that, thanks to some anomalous scientific goosing towards certain narrow avenues of research by the Deparment, is able to compete with the productive capacity of 3-mile island's power plant operating at peak capacity, with the added benefit of increased safety should the worst happen.
The general idea is that none of this is specifically anomalous technology; merely the speed at which the vital data and theory was developed is. Primary ignition is achieved around 1956, with positive energy output following in 1965. Commercial viability is confirmed in 1970, and the first plant is opened in Albuquerque in 1972.
The Ford-class CVNs' A1B reactor is around a billion per unit and run on weapons-grade HEU. Sure that's cheaper than commercial units, but it's not because they have fewer safety measures. It's the weapons-grade fuel I mentioned, combined with the fact that they, like other naval reactors, were designed to be produced on-mass unlike commercial units.
They need beryllium to turn thermal neutrons into heat, and beryllium isn't cheap. Like, the current world annual production is enough to build one reactor. They also get as radioactive as fission reactors, negating much of the advantages of fusion.
Amusingly enough, a ready source of He3 would remove the need for beryllium in fusion reactors, as D+He3 is an aneutronic reaction, excepting the occasional D+D reaction.Most of that expense is because beryllium is VERY hard to extract as metal. You basically need to do it in a water and oxygen free environment. That said, it would probably fuel a space resource race for both it and helium-3 fuel.
Just looking at the results of a quick Google search, looks like graphite might be a viable cheap substitute for beryllium. That said, to extrapolate from what @YuffieK said, beryllium as a motivation for asteroid mining might be an idea for science fiction.Uh, tokamak won't get you commercial-scale fusion power. They need beryllium to turn thermal neutrons into heat, and beryllium isn't cheap. Like, the current world annual production is enough to build one reactor. They also get as radioactive as fission reactors, negating much of the advantages of fusion.
Helium 3 isn't easy to get (you'd need to either extract it from very low concentrations in Luna regolith or go to the giant planets to get it), so mining some beryllium-rich near-Earth asteroid(s) might be easier.Amusingly enough, a ready source of He3 would remove the need for beryllium in fusion reactors, as D+He3 is an aneutronic reaction, excepting the occasional D+D reaction.
Amusingly enough, a ready source of He3 would remove the need for beryllium in fusion reactors, as D+He3 is an aneutronic reaction, excepting the occasional D+D reaction.
The other thing about beryllium is that it also has uranium impurities that are a bitch to remove, to the point that even the purest panels would see U235 fission and Pu239 production.
Hmm, an interesting thought;
Commercial fusion might actually slow vehicle electrification. Why? Because pushing oil out from power generation means oil prices stay lower for longer, pulling the rug out from under electric cars, which are a lot more expensive to run in their immature stages. So you might see less of a push to move towards hybrid and electric vehicles, as oil based fuel stays cheap. Cheap clean electricity will still drive it eventually, but the process could get slowed down by years.
By cheap do you mean cheaper than fission? Fusion is by its nature more difficult than fission, so if we're considering a realistic fusion reactor it probably wouldn't be cheaper than a cheap fission reactor.
Depends on what you mean by 'cheap fission reactor'. No realistic fusion core would be cheaper than something like the Chicago Pile, and current tokamak designs are looking like they'd cost as much as an entire plant's worth of equivalent fission systems. On the other hand, fusion reactors don't need to be nearly as rugged as their failure mode is 'hydrogen fire' rather than 'radioactive deflagration'. Additionally, one of the biggest hurdles to practical fusion power has been getting the energy out, as historic designs have been thermal systems like fission and fossil-fuel plants, so the divergence probably includes some form of direct generation methodology like magnetic flux generation, which would also push costs down overall.
So cheap fission as in 'barebones, uncontained safety hazards' then. Because you've repeatedly made it clear you think basic safety requirements are 'useless red tape' in other threads. Conincidentally, the USN is one of the biggest investors in fusion research and the leading experts in what constitutes a safe fission reactor. Standards that, oddly enough, you don't like...
I mean cheap fission as in not strangled to death by red tape. I suppose it's possible fusion would end up cheaper by fission remaining red taped to death, but for things like warships that's not an issue so fission would probably remain standard.
I think oil would still be a valued resource in this scenario, with the politics that implies. Oil is primarily valuable as a vehicle fuel. Since the OP specified the fusion reactors are too big to stick in things like cars and trucks, unless this alternate history also sees precocious development of battery technology or something like that, oil would still have that niche.
After that, a lot depends on how much the historical trajectory of fusion power diverges from the OTL historical trajectory of nuclear power. Plausible options range from "fusionization of most national energy grids in the time span 1970-2000, very significantly different and better world" to "fusion gets nerfed by the same political and economic factors that nerfed nuclear OTL, we basically get OTL but with an additional layer of 'scientists remind public that clean energy is ready to go whenever.'" I think fusion would have less of a waste and potential contamination problem, since the reaction product is helium instead of radioactive heavy metals? I expect fusion to become a target of the anti-nuclear movement anyway though; I suspect a lot of this will come down to PR campaigns and the timing of events that influence them. On that note, I guess the 1970s is relatively lucky timing for a new "better" form of nuclear power to be rolled out, assuming the 1970s oil embargo still happens in this scenario; never mind that this new technology isn't directly applicable as an oil-replacement, the public will be relatively positively inclined toward a new energy source.
Assuming we get the relatively optimistic scenario, the biggest difference is likely going to be global warming being much less of a problem. With widespread fusionization starting in the 1970s I expect CO2 emissions to be way below their OTL levels by 2000. There will still be some, because there's likely to still be a lot of oil being burned as a vehicle fuels (about 1/3 of OTL emissions IIRC), but the problem will be much less bad and less urgent. Here's the first graph Google turned up for atmospheric CO2 increase over the twentieth century; this scenario would diverge from OTL around 1970, when CO2 looks to have been about 320 ppm; assuming gradual fusionization over the next few decades, I'd guess 2020s CO2 levels might be something in the region of 350 ppm; not far from 350.org's (in OTL very utopian) target.
Why would fusion lower oil prices? Oil largely isn't used for power, and where it is it's for the isolated type of power fusion won't replace.
With fusion making gas and coal obsolete, there will also be less oil discoveries and extraction.
Petroleum power was a major source of energy during the 1970s. In fact, the growth of petroleum power in the era was actually far greater than nuclear power, peaking at almost 20% of electricity production at various points in that decade. In the year 1970 the United States was only getting 1% of its electricity from nuclear power.
Petroleum was cleaner than coal due to the ability to refine out sulfur and reduce acid rain in the period before flue gas desulfurization was adopted, although particulates are still much worse. Petroleum is also easier to transport than natural gas, important in a time before pipeline infrastructure was developed. It's easier to transport than coal too if you consider international trade. Coal export terminals require special infrastructure, a petroleum terminal is much easier to site. It wasn't until the early 1990s that petroleum ceased being a major electricity source in larger countries, although to this day many smaller islands still run on petroleum.
So after some further consideration, i've decided the fusion in this setting will be deuterium-based, since helium 3 mining isn't really viable until you have some sort of jovian energy fleet (cursed though that name may be). And while there probably will be a moonbase, it's going to be more like Prey's Pytheas Outpost or For All Mankind's thing than something from the movie Moon. However, to circumvent the radiation problem, I'm going to add a handwavy 'rad-leeching gel' substance loosely based on a real world substance being proposed to cleanup radiation particulates in the environment. This will then be stored in designated facilities in Nevada until some other recycling solution is found. Meanwhile, I may steal a few more things from Prey's timeline while I'm at it…
Good. deuterium -trdtdum is by far the preferred method from what I've gathered from talking to people in the field.
You don't really need werd anti radiation gel tho. Literally either bury your waste or drop it into a deep part of the ocean.
Now, I actually don't expect fusion to do do much better than nuclear for displacing oil, because of regulatory capture and misinformation campaigns by oil companies.
A lot of anti nuclear sentiment is funded by big oil because they realize that nuclear is their main competition, and it will be the same with fusion. They'll talk about how fusion neutrons are more intense and generate more activated waste, they'll whip up NIMBYs, they'll buy senators and put regulatory blocks in place.
Also keep in mind that a fusion plant is going to be even more expensive than a fission one. So, the issues with high up front costs that fission plants have will be even more pronounced for fusion.
I guess at the end of the day the real question is what purpose is fusion supposed to fulfill in the story?
The main issue I see is that one really can't "just have fusion power" in the 70s, any more than we can just have machine learning. Fusion is a fiendishly difficult proposition, well beyond the technology of the time, so I think you'd have to have something SFional that acts like fusion, yet really isn't.
So here's a few possibilities:
- Runaway: Unlike normal fusion, this is a zero-point energy process that extracts energy from the Quantum Foam using a self-sustaining field effect. Using it to heat is how you get a working fluid to run a magnetohydrodynamic power plant. The problem is, if it runs wild, they're may be no stopping it.
- Product of a crashed UFO: Flying Saucers are very 70s. It's basically a weird literally black box technology that we really don't understand, though we can duplicate them. Actually, we don't-they duplicate themselves under the exactly right conditions. And if we make too many of them, the aliens will notice. Better set up a UFO defence agency hidden as a movie studio...
- Espers: what's more 70s than ESP? This fusion system requires telekinetics to, I dunno, convince the plasma to choose it something. But aside from the limited supply of espers, there's the fact that some of them might not want jobs as living power generators, or others may have more selfish, sinister uses for their abilities...
- Dimensional Weirdness: you get your energy by opening a crack in the space tone continuum. This can have all kinds of weirdness ranging from time and space distortion, time ghosts, people from alternate universes, dinosaurs...and the longer it goes on, the more "corrupted" the area gets (The Zone, The Southern Expanse, etc.)
- It's an evil plot: But they were, all of them, deceived, for another Fusion Reactor was made. In the land of California, in the fires of Stanford, the Dark Lord Teller forged in secret a master Fusion Reactor, to control all others. And into this Fusion Reactor he poured his cruelty, his malice and his will to dominate all life. One Fusion Reactor to rule them all...