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Amongst Us Mafia

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Shadell said:
Answer to the question above?
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I started an answer last night, got half finished and went to bed.
I've threaded it in to the following post, and updated the still relevant bits.

We should probably assume Wiadi is dead or faking it at this point. I'm also assuming no ambushes were attempted- I think ambushes would be strictly worse than visiting at this point (This assumption shouldn't be treated as absolute, but I'm hoping someone else will do that analysis). I'm also assuming Terrabrand is dead so I don't have to do twice as much analysis. (And if we're getting galaxy brained like that, so be it.)
The mechanically plausible scumteams are the following:

Any pair with one from Me/NOM and one from Scia/QT is implausible; this requires flat out throwing (having two kills available for a win and not taking them)

Me + NOM is impossible because I'm crew; I suppose this is possible to outside perspectives. I expect I'll have to argue against it.

Scia/QT is possible from strictly recent events; low plausibility if accounting for QT's earlier voting.

Wiadi + Shadell is possible; two missed visits, one chooses to go dark.

Anyone else publicly alive + Wiadi is possible, but means skipping a kill for cover. I think this generally is a bad idea, unless QTesseract's tiebreaker fate was told to scum before it was told to town. Otherwise, it means scum is gambling pretty hard on their ability to swing two votes out of four onto a town target, rather than one vote out of three. I think only QTesseract would be in a position to consider the gamble, and I don't think they would take it.
(@LostDeviljho can you confirm whether any scum learned about the inactivity ruling before deciding night actions?)

Meso + Shadell is possible; Shadell goes for a kill and gets screwed by tasking.

Meso + Wiadi is implausible; faking your death as solo scum means you have a high probability of just losing when it gets down to 2 crew left.

Meso + anyone else is impossible unless Wiadi shows up, and means skipping a kill for cover.
I think if we're down to one scum this is very unlikely- if there's one scum remaining dropping a kill is a pretty huge cost, and isn't likely to buy the full day it would cost them
If it's currently one living scum versus five crew, if they take the kill scum needs 3 misvote with p=.5, 2 misvotes otherwise. I think this is already a long time to try to hide, and playing for cover is expected ~+.5 misvotes required, for cover that can't really be actively preserved.
This is also not accounting for town strats e.g. sticking together in pairs.
Scum needs all misvotes if they see no further people while visiting; we assume future meetings involve kills so math is possible.
Math is:
Scum fixes location; number of ways to allocate people missing that location / number of ways to allocate people
p takes kill 3 misvotes needed:
(8C3 / 9C3) * (7C2/8C2) = .5
2 misvotes otherwise
p skips kill 4 misvotes needed:
(9C4 / 10C4) * (8C3 / 9C3) * (7C2/8C2) = .3
p skips kill 3 misvotes needed, math not guaranteed correct:
(1- (9C4 / 10C4)) * (8C3 / 9C3) * (7C2/8C2)
+ (9C4 / 10C4) * (1-(8C3 / 9C3)) * (7C2/8C2)
+ (9C4 / 10C4) * (8C3 / 9C3) * (1-(7C2/8C2)) = 1/5 + 3/20 +1/10 = .45
 
There's some things I'd like to respond to here, but I want to push out more discussion before making the big point, because town has zero chance whatsoever if we're not forcing the thread to actually engage.
 
No visit to generals yet.
I am debating , if there is a point when we _should_ reveal prior visit targets to see if we can catch scum because they visited to many different places
 
Scia said:
No visit to generals yet.
I am debating , if there is a point when we _should_ reveal prior visit targets to see if we can catch scum because they visited to many different places
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Everyone has 2 visits exactly, and 2 reactor trips, so it's literally impossible to have too many locations. People can happily claim literally anything for the two reactor visits. Realistically, I do not think we'll catch anyone in a lie, doubly so with this many dead and no real easy way to sort out fake-claims.
 
Like, I appreciate the creativity and the differences in ideas that went in here, but scum mechanics make things extremely swingy with scum extremely weak with 1 alive and extremely strong with both alive that I don't think you could effectively balance it without completely redesigning it from the ground up.
 
Shadell said:
We're 24 hours into the day and half the thread is barely posting. Are people still playing?
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I know I never really got invested here; the start didn't help, and this whole setup actively saps desire to post. It's social mafia, except you can't tell if your read was right even afterword and there's no lie to catch people out in even in theory. I do appreciate you trying to keep activity up but it's tough regardless.
 
Okay, right now I would say we can assume that wiadi is either dead or scum , but I consider the former more likely then the later as I do not think that a faking would work there, especially as it is not necessarily usefull to them

@LostDeviljho
A question, "may visit a task" in regards to players is a " you need to visit one of them."
is a imposter likewise forced to visit a area in the kill phase if their ambush failed?
 
Scia said:
Okay, right now I would say we can assume that wiadi is either dead or scum , but I consider the former more likely then the later as I do not think that a faking would work there, especially as it is not necessarily usefull to them

@LostDeviljho
A question, "may visit a task" in regards to players is a " you need to visit one of them."
is a imposter likewise forced to visit a area in the kill phase if their ambush failed?
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ie someone playing death still has to visit a room and so we could encounter them.
 
Anyway, wanted to hold this for a bit to drive discussion, but, unless we think There's a credible chance Terra is scum:

[x] vote Wiadi

If Wiadi is scum, this confirms, if not, we're at mylo and better off waiting.

Arguments that I must be scum based on pairings neglect scum's proven willingness to ambush and that we don't hear about failed ambushes. I know I tried to bait one out early last day with talking up visiting general. Sadly, this prevents any mech clears whatsoever.
 
Well it doesn't seem like waiting for activity from others is gonna work.
Shadell said:
At present, QT not being yeeted/given mod votes/whatever the unspecified punishment is for not posting enough means that QT is scum. OTOH, it's unclear what we'll even learn from this.

Nothing IH says convinces me off my current gut, and I simply have the least factors there saying town.

[x] Vote InterstellarHoo



Scia, could I convince you to vote IH based on your meso read pairing the two?
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Shadell, think you can elaborate on this post?
 
Shadell said:
Anyway, wanted to hold this for a bit to drive discussion, but, unless we think There's a credible chance Terra is scum:

[x] vote Wiadi

If Wiadi is scum, this confirms, if not, we're at mylo and better off waiting.

Arguments that I must be scum based on pairings neglect scum's proven willingness to ambush and that we don't hear about failed ambushes. I know I tried to bait one out early last day with talking up visiting general. Sadly, this prevents any mech clears whatsoever.
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Actually; can you expand on this any? In particular, re the vote on Wiadi?
 
Scia said:
Okay, right now I would say we can assume that wiadi is either dead or scum , but I consider the former more likely then the later as I do not think that a faking would work there, especially as it is not necessarily usefull to them

@LostDeviljho
A question, "may visit a task" in regards to players is a " you need to visit one of them."
is a imposter likewise forced to visit a area in the kill phase if their ambush failed?
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No.
 
Okay, with 5 alive, 2 scum will reduce to 4 and win if town passes. With 1 scum, we'll go to 4 at EoD and 3 at start of d6 at worst, and F3 is ideal for town. With Wiadi alive, killing reduces us to 5, which drops to 4 in the night. That mostly means, I think, we can't really remove Wiadi from the suspect list, particularly as a solo scum can simply stop playing in perpetuity and let town drop to f3 with impunity.

ATM, Novus and Wiadi are my likely votes.

@LostDeviljho I assume we will not be told if a player was alive when we ejected them?
 
If so, I think faking at least one death is a clear good option for scum. Scum, likewise, could have asked all these questions in PM, and has more reason to scrutinize scum PMs.

The only fake options are Terra and Wiadi, and the latter death is probably more likely to be scum here, particularly as Terra would have been a trade-off in reactor.
 
Shadell said:
I'd encourage more hunting, but can people please at least put a placeholder vote on Wiadi atm? I don't think there's any meaningful chance of town-Wiadi missing the thread this long, so it's null or scum no matter what, and this is quite possibly lylo.

@QTesseract
@Novus Ordo Mundi
@InterstellarHobo
@Scia
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Yeah, sure. I can do that. I'm a bit busy with IRL stuff, so my ability to determine scum is going to be a bit on the low side.

[X] Vote Wiadi
 
Second, I very much dislike this latest push; it appears to be entirely built on faulty mechanical analysis.
Shadell said:
Anyway, wanted to hold this for a bit to drive discussion, but, unless we think There's a credible chance Terra is scum:

[x] vote Wiadi

If Wiadi is scum, this confirms, if not, we're at mylo and better off waiting.

Arguments that I must be scum based on pairings neglect scum's proven willingness to ambush and that we don't hear about failed ambushes. I know I tried to bait one out early last day with talking up visiting general. Sadly, this prevents any mech clears whatsoever.
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This analysis is flawed, as if Wiadi is not scum we may well be at Lylo.
I point this out, and Shadell does give a mea culpa,
Shadell said:
I can't count, or rather, I somehow added an extra player in my head so failing to vote anyone would leave us at 6 going into the night, not 5.
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But doesn't move the vote, and more importantly continues to push Wiadi on similar grounds:

Shadell said:
I'd encourage more hunting, but can people please at least put a placeholder vote on Wiadi atm? I don't think there's any meaningful chance of town-Wiadi missing the thread this long, so it's null or scum no matter what, and this is quite possibly lylo.
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While true on all counts, this isn't actually reason to vote Wiadi, even as a placeholder. If there's one scum, Wiadi almost certainly isn't it. (See below) If there are two scum and Wiadi is null, we lose.
The only reason to vote Wiadi is if you think they are scum, which insofar as I can tell Shadell hasn't made a case for.

This reads like an attempt to push Wiadi as a 'safe' or mechanically incentivized choice when it really isn't.
This feels to me like scum trying for a final push to close the game, rather than genuine scumhunting.

[X] Vote Shadell.
 
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