Ministry of Finance, Nanjing, Republic of China, 2 May 1925
"Shit."
That was not what Finance Minister Wang Zhaoming liked saying, but it seemed oddly-fitting given the circumstances.
Said circumstances were the fact that the United States was sitting on an economic time bomb that could destroy the global market, or at least that of the United States.
In short, the four largest banks in America, JP Morgan, Kuhn Loeb, Brown Brothers, and Kidder Peabody had all lent out heavy loans to the European Alliance's members. And, if the MIB was to be believed, they were also guilty of insider trading and working as unregistered foreign agents.
He believed them. The information seemed solid, and he trusted both Li and Fong after they saved his life a decade ago.
That said, the insider trading and serving as foreign agents were irrelevant to his office.
What mattered was the sheer amount of money loaned to the British, Germans, Austro-Hungarians, and Italians that the Big Four American banks would probably not get back.
That was how fractional reserve banking worked, in a nutshell. When you deposited money into a bank, the bank had to keep a certain percentage (the fractional reserve) on hand at all times, but they could basically do other things with the rest of it while paying you interest on your deposit.
This usually took the form of loans, but investments in stocks or bonds were also on the table.
In this case, it was loans to the Big Four of the European Alliance and investments into war-related stocks that generated dividends and greatly-increased in value as the war continued.
Now, this was all well and good for the Big Four banks, so long as the war continued. They made money off of the dividends, and their portfolios appreciated in value from all the war-related stocks they held.
That was the problem, though. So long as the war continued.
Sure, the Big Four banks likely made a healthy profit off of it all, especially when they were able to sell off their war-related stocks once the Nanjing Accord made landfall on the British isles.
Which means the four governments who owe them money no longer exist. Wonderful.
This alone wouldn't be enough to sink the Big Four of banking. Sure, they wouldn't get their money back, but it wasn't as if they put all their eggs in one basket.
No, the problem is that once the average American realized they wouldn't get their money back, there would almost certainly be a bank run, and those banks didn't have enough money on hand if everyone ran to the bank at once to withdraw their money.
That, and the congressional subpoenas from Representative Butler over war profiteering and alleged insider trading.
Though I would rather be dragged before Congress if the alternative was running out of money and my bank collapsing.
And they don't get to choose.
Wang sighed, then picked up the phone to his secretary.
"Please get the American Secretary of the Treasury on the line. We need to act fast if we want to avoid catastrophe."
"Loans, sir?"
"Something to that effect, if necessary."
American Union Bank, New York City, New York, United States of America, 3 May 1925
The bank was closed, but the people either didn't realize or didn't care.
Their money was "in" there, and that meant staying in line so they could take it out.
The only problem was that, well, the banks didn't actually have the money in the banks.
Sure, this one hadn't lent out money to the European Alliance like the Big Four, but they still lent out to homeowners, small businesses, or just people who were hard up for cash.
The money wasn't in Europe, but it still wasn't there. Not enough, anyways.
Not that they cared, of course.
That was why the NYPD was here. Money or no money, they couldn't have the average citizen breaking down doors to try to get into the vault.
"Hold the line!" Sergeant McKinley shouted to his men. "Hold!"
"We've been holding this line for three hours!" Officer Smith shouted back at him. "They're not leaving!"
"Well the next shift isn't coming for another three, so get it together!"
"Move aside!" shouted some officers from the back, and McKinley waved them forward. Thankfully, the crowd parted.
"Are we being relieved already?"McKinley asked him. "I would not say no to that."
"An announcement from City Hall," the second sergeant told him. "I'll need the crowd's attention."
"Give me a second," McKinley grumbled, before shouting to the crowd. "I need your attention!"
The crowd continued to rabble.
"Oh for the love of," McKinley drew in a deep breath and picked up a megaphone. "I need your attention! Now!"
That, thankfully, was loud enough to get them to listen.
He handed the megaphone to his fellow officer. "Your turn, Sergeant."
"Can everyone hear me?" A couple people shouted yes, so he continued. "I am Sergeant Frederick Hammond of the NYPD! I am here to inform you all that all of your deposits are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, as per the 1916 Deposit Insurance Act! Your money is insured by the government, and it will be paid out to you in full once you finish!"
"Furthermore," Hammond continued, "The federal government has reached an agreement to take control of JP Morgan, Kuhn Loeb, Brown Brothers, and Kidder Peabody and will liquidate, then restructure them to cover any uninsured costs! These funds will then be distributed in due time!"
"I repeat! Your deposits are safe and insured by the federal government! In all likelihood, your workplace's deposits are safe and will be reimbursed by the federal government! With that knowledge, I ask on behalf of Mayor John Francis Hylen that you all kindly return to your homes! Thank you!"
"Will it work?" McKinley asked him, and the two sergeants just stared as the crowd made up their minds.
"Hopefully."
Thankfully, they listened to reason and walked away, content with the knowledge that their money would come back, sooner or later.
"The American Debt Crisis and Resolution, Explained in A Nutshell," In A Nutshell, YouTube, 1925
You're in charge of one of these four countries during the Great War: Great Britain, Italy, Austria-Hungary, and Germany.
You need weapons and raw materials, and raw materials need money to buy them. Now, you can do this normally, but when you run out of cash, you need to take out loans.
Enter the Big Four banks of America: JP Morgan, Brown Brothers, Kuhn Loeb, and Kidder Peabody. They have money, and they'll gladly lend it to you. They'll even facilitate sales for a one to two percent cut!
(And use this knowledge to practice insider trading to make even more money off the war effort)
So now you have money to buy weapons and raw material to fund your war machine- wait is that a Chinese missile?
[Footage of Chinese airstrikes plays]
Well, at least the Chinese aren't invading-
[Footage of Nanjing Accord tanks plays, before fading to black]
You're in charge of the occupation of one of these four countries after the Great War: Great Britain, Italy, Austria-Hungary, and Germany.
You're celebrating, happy that you've won the war and have gotten your stolen historical artifacts back when you realize that, oh no, they have millions, if not billions, in debt to multiple American banks.
You brush this off after sending the news back to Nanjing. This is America's problem. Not yours.
No, your job is to process all those prisoners of war and train them to help rebuild their countries for less than a private would make in a year.
[Footage of a victory parade plays, before fading to black]
You're the American Secretary of the Treasury. Thankfully, your country has avoided the war, which means that you can sit back, relax, and enjoy the economic benefits of not having your country bombed by futuristic aircraft.
Wait, why are all those people lining up outside the banks?
Oh boy.
Okay, this is what the FDIC is for, which means that every cent up to a quarter of a million is covered by a fund the Big Four banks have paid for.
You know, the Big Four banks that… literally just ran out of money despite several important businesses having deposited more than a quarter of a million dollars that the businesses can't get back.
Okay… Don't panic. Now it's time to break the glass in case of a bank collapse.
[An animation shows a "Break In Case of Pending Economic Collapse" case with a book inside]
Step One: Seize control of the bank. The Roosevelt Administration– No, not the Vice President, the other Roosevelt– passed legislation that allows the FDIC to take control of a bank once it runs out of money.
Or in this case, four banks.
Step Two: Now that you have control of the Big Four banks, you need to find a way to get the rest of the money out of there.
The good news is that the banks didn't invest all their money into businesses. They own stocks, bonds, and properties that you can sell off and reimburse their depositors.
So, you start a fire sale, where everything must go! Now all you need are buyers.
[An animation shows a bank garage sale with a tumbleweed rolling by]
Wait… Those banks need to make payroll by the end of the week, don't they?
Step Three: Find somebody who has money that you can use in the meantime. You're the Secretary of the Treasury, so surely the United States has the hard currency to-
The good news is that you have some money. The bad news is you don't have that much.
Okay, don't panic. All you need to do is find somebody who does have enough money to tide you over in the meantime.
[An animation shows a hand picking up a phone]
Step Four: Work with the Chinese Minister of Finance to come up with a plan to make sure the American economy doesn't collapse.
The good news is that China has the money, and you two have a plan to prevent the American economy from collapsing.
[An animation shows an American man and a Chinese man tossing bags of money back and forth]
Step Five: The Chinese government will lend the American government money to reimburse the uninsured deposits from the banks, which means the American business sector doesn't collapse into a fiery explosion.
Meanwhile, you will keep selling off everything from the Big Four banks that you can to pay the Chinese back.
Stocks? Sold!
Bonds? Sold!
Office furniture? Sold!
The kitchen sink? Anyone? Anyone? Sold!
The buildings themselves? Sold!
Step Six: You take the money that would have been used to reimburse the uninsured depositors and use it to instead pay off the Chinese whose money you used to pay off the uninsured depositors.
With a little bit of interest.
Crisis averted, and you're not massively indebted to the Chinese government!
The rest of the money can be used to clean up the mess these banks have left behind. Somebody has to fill their place, and that's still up in the air.
Another bank? A government-run bank? A credit union? A government-run credit union?
That's for another day, because today you can rest easy knowing that your economy (and by extension, the global economy) will not explode in a fiery mess that could lay the foundation for fascism to come again.
London, Occupied Britain, 6 June 1925
"Well then," Thomas Lawrence said at the sight of the queue before him. "This is certainly something."
According to it, the Accord Occupational Authority in Britain was actually the largest employer at the time.
Truth be told, it wasn't that surprising, seeing that the British government surrendered and industry had been either bombed to smithereens or confiscated. Given those circumstances it would be more of a surprise if the Chinese occupational authority hadn't earned the top spot by default, since they were basically paying people to sit around and fill out paperwork.
The Chinese have mastered bureaucracy, and they seem to have brought it with their army.
"Name?" asked a Chinese officer in surprisingly-good English.
"Thomas Edwared Lawrence. Here are my papers."
"Very well," said the officer, before looking over the files. "You have a background in history, yes?"
Lawrence nodded.
"Alright, then." The officer typed a few more lines into the machine in front of him. "According to our data, you seem to be proficient in academia, which is why you are eligible for a career in education."
"As a teacher?" The officer nodded. "Secondary school, at the moment, but we have you in our system if any openings at Oxford open up."
"I thought Oxford was closed down."
"Oh it is," the officer told him. "But when it does reopen, we will need lecturers to educate the next generation of Britons."
"Which reminds me," the Chinese man continued, before typing out something else and printing out a piece of paper. "Here is the reading list that will be used for the curriculum. The copy shop down the road should be able to print out the textbooks that will be used. You should consider yourself lucky."
"Come again?"
"Just a joke about free textbooks, Mr. Lawrence. The lack of copyright laws ever since the Great Journey has saved us from going bankrupt to pay for textbooks?"
"Is that a problem in China?"
"It was an international problem, back in our time," the officer sighed, before handing him another paper. "Please fill out this form as well when you have finished reading the course materials for your students. And before you ask: The Chinese government loves its paperwork."
"I can tell," the former British POW remarked. "Will that be all?"
"More or less." The officer gave him a polite nod, then motioned him to the side. "NEXT!"
Dublin, Republic of Ireland, 12 June 1925
"FUCK OFF BACK TO ENGLAND!" the Irish soldiers shouted at the departing ship, and then they started singing again.
Go off, ye Black and Tans,
You tried to face me like a man.
Show your wife how you've been beaten, back in Dublin!
Tell them how the IRA, made you run like Hell away,
From the green and lovely plains of a new Ireland!
"Alright, that's enough," Shanahan chuckled, before the men burst into cheers. This was yet another British ship full of soldiers and public servants who would, in all likelihood, never return.
Not that the locals minded, anyways. Most of the ones who had were on those boats and sailing back to Britain as fast as they could. Loyalists, civil servants, and Protestant clergy had all packed their bags as fast as they could once the Accord had offered to ferry any refugees away.
That said, there was one thing that all of them had on their mind.
"And now what?" Private Griffith asked for all of them. "What happens now?"
"Good question," Shanahan told him. Because he didn't know.
There'd need to be a provisional government. That was for sure. The only problem was who would be in charge of it, seeing that half the people in charge tried to kill the other half in the Lost History, and they all knew it.
De Valera wouldn't accept Collins, just as Collins wouldn't accept De Valera. Sure, there was no Anglo-Irish treaty this time around, but the Lost History was enough for them all not to trust one another.
These were not the only factions in Ireland. Not when the famous "Leaders of '16" weren't executed this time. Just as De Valera and Collins had their reputations tarnished by their other selves in the eyes of some, these men were lionized by many.
Men like James Connolly, Sean Mac Diarmada, and Tom Clarke formed the core of the Provisional Government, given their own reputations as martyrs in the lost history.
At least we aren't going to kill each other this time.
That was all well and good, but the next issue would be the Civil Service. Sure, there were people who could help, but the fact remained that a whole lot of civil servants were now in Britain or on the boat there. Something would have to be done, and the Provos were coming up with something.
Last was the elephant in the room. The non-Catholic elephant in the room that they could all agree on.
No, it wasn't "Let's run all the Protestants out of Ireland like Saint Patrick did with the snakes." Well, not most people, anyways.
Sure, there were some who proposed that, but an even larger count were quick to shout them down for various reasons.
There were those like Connolly, who once said that Socialism and Catholicism were not incompatible. A lapsed Catholic himself, he and his followers saw Irish Protestants as fellow proletarians.
Then there were people like Mac Diarmada and Clarke who advocated for a lighter hand out of sheer pragmatism, as neither of them were interested in fighting a "Reverse Troubles" against half of Belfast.
The fact that the Chinese "Men In Black," as they called themselves, were also not interested in fighting a Reverse Troubles against half of Belfast had almost-certainly played a part in this decision.
And they were the ones who were funding, arming, and backing them.
What would be done with the Protestants (or rather, religion as a whole) would almost-certainly be kicked down the road. Not in a sense of shirking responsibility, but by virtue of it being a complicated issue that needed time, deliberation, research, and a light-enough hand so that the same mistakes would not be made again.
Wellington - Te Whanguni-a-Tara, Provisional Government of New Zealand-Aotearoa, 5 July 1925
Temuera had his hands full with the entire reconstruction process, and that was before the Conference had been started.
Sure, the island had been largely-spared of the fighting once the American Red Cross had volunteered to evacuate civilians to Hawaii, but the fact remained that the islands were largely-chaotic, with a Provisional Government consisting of some of the few MPs who had decided to stay.
Apirana Ngata and his staff were the closest thing to a local government on the islands, and they had the heavy task of basically-rebuilding a government from what remained.
There were easy parts, of course. Declaring independence had been easy enough when the occupying forces were actively offering resources and supplies to develop the islands and many loyalists had fled.
Though it wasn't as if they were going to let us keep the King around.
Even the issue of the Tohunga Suppression Act had been largely-uneventful, with a commission of Maori leaders and peoples created to re-evaluate various traditional treatments for their effectiveness. Sure, Ngata didn't take much stock in traditional medicine, but it would help their main issue.
That main issue being what to do with Rua Kenana. Sure, the Accord were happy enough to enact land reform to return Maori lands, but the fact remained that the man declared himself a prophet… and wanted a seat at the table.
There were plenty of plans floated around, from "Let him in" to "Ask the Men in Black to assassinate him" (though that was largely a rhetorical exercise on why it would be a terrible idea.).
"Work with him when our goals align, but keep him at a distance," Ngata had finally offered, "Then we wait him out."
It was a simple-enough plan, but the fact of the matter was that the man had little more than a decade left in him, and Rua wasn't one for modern medicine.
"More for us," Temuera agreed, before flipping the page in his report. "It does seem that the Accord is awfully-interested in restoring Maori culture, doesn't it?"
"They see us as fellow Asians," Ngata told him. "Even if we make up a mere fraction of the population these days."
It was a sad reality they both knew. While the Lost History had seen a resurgence in the Maori culture and population, they currently constituted but a fraction of the country's population despite the exodus of people who would never return.
Even then, the majority of them were on the northern island, and they weren't exactly a majority there, either.
"I want to see a resurgence in our people as well," Temuera told his boss. "To see us grow and prosper to our full potential. We will not get there by kicking all of the Pakeha out."
"Which is why we will be working through education and medicine," Ngata pointed out. Idealist they may be, neither of them thought that turning Aotorea into a Maori ethno-state was a good idea.
Not that either of us would, anyways.
"Our language and our traditions," the Prime Minister continued, "Will be taught to our children, just as they will be taught to their children."
That, of all things, had been the biggest change since the Accord had arrived.
Sure, the local school still stood, but the students would not be punished for speaking their mother tongue.
Of course, this had the side-effect of several teachers either resigning or fleeing with the American Red Cross, but there had been a crash course of sorts to train new ones.
"Which reminds me. Regarding education," Temuera continued. "It seems that the first batch of teachers will start this year. Thirty Maori and a hundred Pakeha."
Delhi, Republic of India, 1 August 1925
Minister VIkram Singh sighed.
Sure, winning the war was all well and good, but running a country was something else entirely.
At least the war had managed to keep everyone united.
This? Peace was almost as chaotic, with Ghadar, the INC and Muslim League, and the United Bharat Party (the newly-formed conservative and traditionalist party) all duking it out on the debate floor.
Thankfully not literally this time.
Sure, they all agreed on the basics of a united India in some form or another, but Ghadar was full of socialists, the INC was a large tent of intellectuals and professionals, and he was pretty sure United Bharat was somewhere between conservative and Hindu Nationalist.
At the bare minimum, they had a government of Ghadar-League-INC in the most recent elections, with the former as the lead member of the "RGB Coalition," as they were known.
"The first matter at hand was writing a constitution, and this was something the three had been very careful about.
Vikram knew full well what had happened in the Lost History, and he had little interest in seeing over a million Hindus and Muslims die, ten times as many displaced, and the SIkhs stuck somewhere in the middle.
No, this time there would be a secular state of many religions, with people allowed to practice as they saw fit. Within reason, of course, though that went without saying.
Which was a fancy way of saying "No, you can't force Hindus to eat beef, Muslims to eat pork, or strip Sikhs of their kirpans."
At the same time, religious crime legislation would have to be enacted. Not so much in the sense of forcing people to follow certain religious laws, but protecting people from religiously-motivated crimes.
For example, slaughtering a cow to eat was fine if you were a Muslim, but slaughtering a cow in front of Hindu to piss them off? That was a crime.
"Sort of like burning a cross on a lawn?" the American ambassador asked him one time. "More or less?"
It wasn't perfect (and in all likelihood the politicians were still arguing about it in their conference room as he spoke. Though as Minister of Industry he had enough of an excuse to excuse himself from that headache.
Next was the issue of meat itself, and that had been a whole other hassle. His proposal to invest in poultry and sheep farming had been greenlit by all three members of the coalition, with the Hindu-aligned interests insisting on a campaign to encourage the consumption of sheep and poultry by the meat-eating population as a whole.
Then there was the issue of the caste system, and Vikram counted his blessings that he would be busy during that discussion.
As of now, the INC, Ghadar, and the League had all agreed on a general idea of "Social Equality." The problem was that all three had their own view of just what that term meant.
On one hand, they weren't going to kill each other over the issue this time. On the other hand, it would be "like pulling teeth," as the saying went.
Santiago, Republic of Chile, 14 September 1925
"War is good for business," was not something that the Radicals in Chile had ever wanted to say aloud, but the facts were the facts.
Chile had copper. China needed copper for wires. So China invested in Chile's mining industry in the nick of time.
Sure, nobody would ever admit it, but the Chilean economy had been on the brink of collapse before this when the Haber-Bosch process had gone mainstream.
Chilean revenue had gone up in smoke almost overnight, and it was how the Radicals had gotten here in the first place.
It took a while, along with a few loans, but the nation had survived, even starting to pay their loans back within a year.
Wires had to come from somewhere, after all. So did bullets.
And when the Great War broke out, Chile had experienced their own economic windfall. Sure, they were selling copper to both sides of the conflict through their intermediaries, but it wasn't as if the Accord or the Alliance had a choice once the bidding wars started.
Chile had grown rich off of the war, and the Radicals had taken care to "Plant the Copper," as the saying went.
It wasn't much at first. Not when so much of Chile was still reliant on copper exports.
But they at least had enough to plant the seeds of economic diversification once the Chinese had come back after the war.
Sure, they weren't exactly happy about having to engage in a bidding war for copper, but they had always found the money, sooner or later.
Besides, there was lithium to be mined. They had it, China knew where it was, and both of them had their reasons to get it out of the ground.
Gdansk Autonomous Region, Kingdom of Poland, Russian Empire, 1 October 1925
Karol had seen it all. From the initial Russian invasion to joint Russo-Chinese occupation, Gdansk would now be part of Congress Poland, now that the referendum had been finished.
It was a simple enough affair with one question: "Do you want to be part of the German Empire or the Kingdom of Poland?"
And it was, for all intents and purposes, the "Kingdom of Poland." Sure, the Tsar had traditionally ignored the Sejm's powers, the recent overthrowing of the Diterikhs regime had greatly-liberalized the treatment of non-Russians, as well as greatly limiting the powers of the Tsar.
This in turn limited the Tsar's own powers in Poland, which allowed the Sejm to pass several reforms under their newly-earned autonomy.
In effect, the Tsar was little more than the King of Poland, while the Sejm held more power, and Petrograd had the final say. It was a messy system, but it was an agreeable-enough one for the time being.
The war changed all of that. Both sides had fielded Poles into their armies, with the promise of creating a Polish state from their enemy's territory. The Alliance had promised a Kingdom of Poland, while the Accord had promised a United Kingdom of Poland that consisted of Galicia, German Poland, and the Kingdom of Poland as it was.
After the Oder Offensive, the Accord vision of Poland had won out. Poland would be united from its partitioned parts, at the cost of having a Romanov as the King of Poland.
There were issues, of course. While the Kingdom of Poland had de-facto devolved powers in the spirit of the United Kingdom of the Lost History, there were those who were unhappy about Petrograd having the final say, while others had raised similar concerns about just how much control the latter would have in the first place.
This, coupled with deals made to form the Unity Government at the start of the war, effectively kicked the can down the road until hostilities had been concluded.
Well, hostilities had been concluded, and it was now time to address their elephant in the room.
Karol had been there himself as a representative of the formerly-German Poles, and he pointed out the differing rights and autonomies enjoyed by Poles in Germany, Russia, and Austria-Hungary.
Which, now that he thought about it, boiled down to, "We want to be sure that Petrograd won't do what the Tsar had done to the Sejm in previous years."
Or to put it another way, they wanted to know where the line would be drawn between them and Petrograd. Sure, they didn't want to fight an entire revolution (especially when the Chinese would almost-certainly come to the Russians' aid), but they didn't want Petrograd to start curtailing their rights.
It took another few weeks of haggling and backroom dealing, but they had finally come to an agreement: For all intents and purposes, the Russian Empire would undergo a process of federalism in which the Kingdom of Poland would remain a constituent state, but one with their own delineated rights.
Sure, they couldn't engage in foreign relations, but they had gotten their United Kingdom of Poland and a fair amount of autonomy from the Petrograd.
It was the best of both worlds, and they were content enough to enjoy this victory.
"There is one problem," one of the Russian Kadets told him at the reception. While he had voted in favor of federalization, Karol had to twist his arm a fair bit. "Now that you all have your autonomy, the Ukrainians, Belarusians, Balts, and Finns will want theirs."
"Would you vote for that?" Karol asked him.
The Russian Kadet downed his champagne and picked up another from the table.
Only to down it as well.
"So long as we don't have to go through that again."