AN:So First time Actually doing this(even making a thread) and I'm not the most grammatically...
A Convoluted North West Mess, 2019 to 1777 ISOT
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AN:So First time Actually doing this(even making a thread) and I'm not the most grammatically accurate. Also I couldn't find a thread saying how this should be done, but this Idea has been in my head for a couple days now and I want to see where it goes
. And if somebody, in the off chance likes this enough to do a story, or anything with this scenario. Go ahead you have my complete permission.
So here's the scenario, a massive event takes place on March 1st, 2019 at midnight (PST). The event transports a 3'400 km(L) by 1,800 km (W) sized rectangle of the world through time to 1777.
As you can see from the map, this is not just one province or state, but multiple governmental bodies.
Alberta, British Columbia, Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, Alaska and a very small part of Washington.
The reason for the specific time of 1777, is so contact with the world is made, in this case it would be by James Cook.
Some caveats. 1st: Everything that is in the rectangle and is not withing 100 meters of a Human(uptime) made object(fence, power lines, farms, tunnels, roads etc) is reset to 1777 standard. pretty much Tree's are back to normal and not striped clear.
2nd: All Canadian Maritime Forces Pacific and coast guard ships are within the event area. As are all American coast guard and military ships stationed with in the area.
So here's the question, how does everybody think this would play out?
PS: If I'm missing something I should add, please tell me
. And if somebody, in the off chance likes this enough to do a story, or anything with this scenario. Go ahead you have my complete permission. A Convoluted North West Mess
So here's the scenario, a massive event takes place on March 1st, 2019 at midnight (PST). The event transports a 3'400 km(L) by 1,800 km (W) sized rectangle of the world through time to 1777.
As you can see from the map, this is not just one province or state, but multiple governmental bodies.
Alberta, British Columbia, Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, Alaska and a very small part of Washington.
The reason for the specific time of 1777, is so contact with the world is made, in this case it would be by James Cook.
Some caveats. 1st: Everything that is in the rectangle and is not withing 100 meters of a Human(uptime) made object(fence, power lines, farms, tunnels, roads etc) is reset to 1777 standard. pretty much Tree's are back to normal and not striped clear.
2nd: All Canadian Maritime Forces Pacific and coast guard ships are within the event area. As are all American coast guard and military ships stationed with in the area.
So here's the question, how does everybody think this would play out?
PS: If I'm missing something I should add, please tell me
MajorKO
Amateur QM and Writer with little motivation
- Location
- United States
Well first of all, I imagine that there's going to be a bit of tension with Russia, considering that Alaska and much of the Canadian coast was at the time claimed by them.
Also, there's going to be the fact that once the various nations and leaders gain access to the information from the future, things are going to change quite a bit. Examples including exploitation/claiming of previously unknown or un-needed deposits of resources, exiling/imprisoning/killing/support of key figures, stamping down of various movements and parties, founding of movements and parties that advocate ideals or notions from the future, etc.
One thing that will especially change the most would be the situation in the 13 colonies/states. While most of the displaced population would likely support the Americans, there will also likely be those who try to emphasize the majority of the territory's alliance with Britain, who currently rules Canada. There's also the fact that once France discovers just how disastrous supporting the Americans turns out to be, they'll likely withdraw support for them, leaving the American revolutionaries at the mercy of the British unless the Northwest picks up the tab and helps them. Finally, there's the various differing values between the displaced territory and both 1777 Canada and the colonies, which will likely prove hard to overcome. Most worrisome would be the reaction from the South upon finding out about future history, which may cause them to either go their separate way from the Northern half or rejoin the British.
Various other problems will likely occur too.
P.S. I totally support this being a story.
Also, there's going to be the fact that once the various nations and leaders gain access to the information from the future, things are going to change quite a bit. Examples including exploitation/claiming of previously unknown or un-needed deposits of resources, exiling/imprisoning/killing/support of key figures, stamping down of various movements and parties, founding of movements and parties that advocate ideals or notions from the future, etc.
One thing that will especially change the most would be the situation in the 13 colonies/states. While most of the displaced population would likely support the Americans, there will also likely be those who try to emphasize the majority of the territory's alliance with Britain, who currently rules Canada. There's also the fact that once France discovers just how disastrous supporting the Americans turns out to be, they'll likely withdraw support for them, leaving the American revolutionaries at the mercy of the British unless the Northwest picks up the tab and helps them. Finally, there's the various differing values between the displaced territory and both 1777 Canada and the colonies, which will likely prove hard to overcome. Most worrisome would be the reaction from the South upon finding out about future history, which may cause them to either go their separate way from the Northern half or rejoin the British.
Various other problems will likely occur too.
P.S. I totally support this being a story.
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- Location
- Kansas
You seem to be making the assumption that the Europeans would be able to get info from the northwest. Problem is, when the quickest one can send a message is at a minimum of two to three months, I'd give it about one to two years before the Europeans learn of this information... that is, assuming they even believe it at first. I'm going to assume that the polities ISOT'D will form a "new Canada" sort of deal. The Americans won't like it, but it's not like we have a choice in the matter.
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AKuz
Been Better
- Location
- A Rising Tide of Horrors
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THE EMPIRE OF GREATER BRITISH COLUMBIA! (And Alberta)
Hmmm.... BC already grows half of what it eats... though those fish stocks tho! They're back! THE FISH! Yes, finally, this is Rupert's chance to shine!
I don't foresee many problems feeding ourselves providing we don't collapse in the first year. Though, God, I'd have to sort through all kinds of agricultural reports to figure that out.
And we do have some refineries and shipbuilding.
Like between Alberta and BC, we got the oil and gas, we got agriculture, we got the fish stocks again, Hunting even. This region of the world is very rich. This could easily turn into a western Canada wank. And there have always been lunatics trying to build utopia on the Pacific Northwest, this time it's us poor fuckers from the future.
"Yeah, there's a utopia on the other side of the world. And they have a British Monarch on their money"
Hmmm.... BC already grows half of what it eats... though those fish stocks tho! They're back! THE FISH! Yes, finally, this is Rupert's chance to shine!
I don't foresee many problems feeding ourselves providing we don't collapse in the first year. Though, God, I'd have to sort through all kinds of agricultural reports to figure that out.
And we do have some refineries and shipbuilding.
Like between Alberta and BC, we got the oil and gas, we got agriculture, we got the fish stocks again, Hunting even. This region of the world is very rich. This could easily turn into a western Canada wank. And there have always been lunatics trying to build utopia on the Pacific Northwest, this time it's us poor fuckers from the future.
"Yeah, there's a utopia on the other side of the world. And they have a British Monarch on their money"
- Location
- Kansas
If James Cook is worth his salt, he will be in a prime position to gather information about the ISOTs. I'm betting he will return to Britian with a nice bundle of information... meaning the BC should expect a visit by the Brits in about... three, maybe four years. Heh, funny enough, I think the guys are so early, Spain still owns half of the new world.
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the atom
Anarcho-Kemalist Thought Leader
- Location
- Comfortably numb
I wouldn't rule the latter out.
First off both provinces are dependent on a pretty substantial supply chain to function that just....isn't there anymore. Anything that depended on imports or exports to operate, even if only in the supply chain, just ceased to be.
Secondly there's the economy, or rather how does it work? There's no bank of canada anymore. Who's issuing currency? What is the CAD even worth anymore?
Thirdly....who's running the show? How many British Colombians and Albertans would be willing to accept Edmonton or Vancouver as the new national capital?
Lastly, these would all be almost impossible to resolve even if the majority of the population was willing to sit patiently and let the politicians sort shit out. But they won't be. People will be scared and there will be panic. And with no relief, not even answers even on the horizon I predict things will get ugly.
Whatever happens, we're going to crash and crash hard, for years if not decades. The society or (or societies) that reemerge will only faintly resemble what came before.
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- Location
- Kansas
Hmm, feels like you're being massively pessimistic about what will happen if a bunch of provinces get dumped in the ass end of no where. I mean, this isn't a single city, it's several provinces that (theoretically) have a state government, with associated civil infrastructure there to maintain civil order. Granted, I have never been to Canada, so I have no clue what will happen if such an event DID happen. Segwaying into a completely unrelated topic, what do you think the Old World governments will react if half of Canada disappears? Me, I predict new polices that focus on making each state able to be self-sufficient is in order.
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- Location
- Somewhere left of nowhere near anywhere
Well Alberta has been threatening (they wont but they are) to secede from Canada lately. And BC and Alberta just generally dislike each other as of late. Actually all of Canada right now seems to be pretty much hating on Alberta.
the atom
Anarcho-Kemalist Thought Leader
- Location
- Comfortably numb
Alberta lost its entire export market and BC's service based economy essentially ceased to exist.
The ISOT genre has generally taught us that being suddenly cut off from everything isn't a big issue, but this is definitely nonsense.
A modern first world economy is absurdly complex and interconnected. Cutting out a slice of it and dropping it into the void with no warning is like expecting a piece of someone's leg to act like a miniature person.
Like it's hard for me to even describe the scale of the catastrophe here: like just for a start, very oil worker in Alberta that their job, and potentially even their company doesn't exist anymore. Same goes for every contractor remotely associated with the oil patch. Same goes for anyone who supplied either of those two. Same goes for any industry that was dependent on the money of those workers for buisiness. Same goes for anyone that was dependent on them, and so on.
B.C's service industry just folded like wet cardboard for similar reasons. Anything depending on a national or international supply or personnel network for functionality is either dead or crippled. The ports have stopped entirely. The lumber and mining industries mostly collapse for the same reasons as the Albertan oil fields.
British Colombian and Albertan economies are of course connected with each other so these calamities will of course ripple into each other.
Speaking of work, how are the surviving workers getting paid? Well nobody's sure because nobody knows what the CAD is worth anymore.
Police might be able to maintain order for a bit but clubbing people isn't really a long term structural solution.
Jamie Roberts
Hávamál 127
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- N/A
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- she/her
Yeah, I have a story idea I've been toying with of ISOTing Iceland and Svalbard back to the middle ages. The story would very much not be about how Iceland would handle steering the course of Europe's future. The story would be about how Iceland's violent death-throes completely f%$#s up Northern Europe and beyond.
Its one thing to send Cleopatra's Egypt two thousand years back in time; there'd be some serious economic disruption, but the over all supply chains for everything important was reasonably self-contained. Its another thing to do that to a modern nation. Send Germany back a hundred years, and they'll be burning books by the end of the year just to stay warm.
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
If the governments can maintain social cohesion for long enough, it's doable. Shelter-in-place warnings for the first day or two, and if the BC, Alaska and Washington governments are on the ball enough, they go through whatever's stockpiled in the Seattle/Vancouver/wherever else container terminals and activate old civil defense plans.
It's keeping society together and functioning for the six months it will take to sort out new business arrangements that's touch and go.
---
The slice you have is far enough south that it cuts through a decent chunk of Seattle. Depending on how much of the Microsoft peering points go with, the internet quite possibly goes down instantly -- anything not hosted in whatever Azure servers or cached in local CDN make it through probably just instantly disappears. Local copies of Wikipedia are probably still accessible assuming caches in university servers.
- Location
- Kansas
Yeah, I agree with Secretariat. Honestly, at most, the economy is going to go through a depression that will rival the Great Depression in scope, but I don't think it's enough to cause total collapse. Also, why the would the currency change? I'm not an expert, but people won't stop using the currency just cause the bank is gone, right? In many cases, isn't it a decision of the people to use that currency?
Edit: There is a global market, or else the British Empire wouldn't have become an empire in the first place.
Edit: There is a global market, or else the British Empire wouldn't have become an empire in the first place.
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- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
Again, depends on the speed and capability of the government response.
If whatever federal authority can pull together, things can go roughly on as before, with banks hiring a lot more tellers and transitioning to the systems they had in place before computerization -- prices of certain irreplaceable goods spike, HR departments have to relearn how to authorize payroll by hand, but some ghost of a pre-computerization financial system shambles on because people continue to believe in it and make it work.
If the government fucks it up, we're well on our way to the worst financial crisis in history followed by near-total economic collapse.
- Location
- Somewhere left of nowhere near anywhere
There will also be a lot of people killed as a result of the ISOT, whether through starvation. Or losing all contact with society and freezing to death since satellite phones won't work to get help/transport. and there are quite a few of towns reliant upon airlifted and boat supplied provisions way up north. it's not a pretty sight.
- Location
- Kansas
Phone services rely on towers, Right? Civil order will be shaken, but not to the point of mass starvation( I think) as one of the provinces specializes in agriculture. For the airlifted stuff, why would they stop? They still have airports, and the coast guard units are still in the area.
- Location
- Somewhere left of nowhere near anywhere
Further north like Victoria island doesn't have that. And there are also old logging towns completely cut off from society and require satellite phones to call for supplies.
Umm none of the provinces in the rectangle specialize in agriculture, they have farms ya but none of them are agriculturally self sufficient. They all require imports to function.
Also I never said mass starvation, just a lot of people will die from this. there is always hunting and forging they could do. But some people will starve in the very isolated areas and can't call for transport. And it's the beginning of march, so further north of Vancouver is still in snow season.
Fuel is one of the bigger hindrance to that, among others. Like not being able to know weather patterns anymore since the satellites are gone. Flying into a blizzard isn't the safest thing that's for sure.
edit:fixed typo
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MajorKO
Amateur QM and Writer with little motivation
- Location
- United States
So let's say that hypothetically, after a difficult start, the very least that happens is the splitting of the displaced area into three factions; British Columbia, Alberta, and the American remnant territory, with Yukon and the other North Canadian wilderness up in the air. What do you think will result from that?
the atom
Anarcho-Kemalist Thought Leader
- Location
- Comfortably numb
I don't see the American remnant as being even theoretically capable of forming their own factions. They'd probably fall in with either B.C. or Alberta, same goes for the territories. The Yukon is functionally an extension of B.C. in a lot of ways so that's a no brainer. I'm less sure about NWT and what's left of Nunavut. I think they're also more aligned with B.C. culturally and politically but Alberta is just way closer and has easier access, which means they'd at the very least fall pretty heavily into the Albertan sphere out of sheer necessity. The American remnants would probably merge with B.C. for similar reasons unless they were reaaaally intent on making a country that basically consists of Juneau and part of Seattle work out.
- Location
- Kansas
Ehh, it is 1777, meaning that America is an entity (though a certainty young and far away entity). MEANING, that for those that feel very strongly about being under an American government, they could immigrate to America. Unlikely, though, as America today is a completely different creature from back then. Granted, it would be interesting seeing Americans from today influencing Americans of yesteryear. Not to mention the distance.
So. There's going to be a lot of people weirded out that the universe breaks along right angles. I know I would be to discover that the universe fractures along Saskatchewan-ish lines.
Now I feel like this needs some numbers. First some demographic estimates, and then we try and feed them.
Population (in millions) [From Wikipedia, latest estimates]
CANADA
AB: 4.35
BC: 5.02
YT: 0.04
NT: 0.04
NU: Neglected, on the basis that we aren't taking all of the Northwest Territories and I expect it to more or less cancel out
UNITED STATES
AK: 0.74
WA (Counties of Clallam, Whatcom, Skagit, Snohomish, Chelan, Okanogan, Ferry, Stevens, and Pend Oreille (picked based on eyeballing the map)): 1.41
TOTAL: 11.6 million people
Let's call it 12 million for round number math.
Food supply I'm going to see what I can do without touching BCs farming, orchards, fishing, ranching or hunting. Let alone Alaska's surprisingly robust agricultural sector, mostly because I know enough that I don't know where I should be looking for things to add up to make the numbers work there. Also, someone needs to be growing the seed for the next year.
Using Eric Rozier's online calculator for 12 million people and a year gives us: 11,104,684 tons. I'm going to round that up to 15 million tons because no one is perfect and I like a safety margin against starvation!
The Alberta Government Open Data crop information gives the worst yields for wheat as 40.2 bushels per acre. That's slightly more than 1.2 tons of wheat per acre (wheat is 60 pounds to the bushel, so).
The Canola Council of Canada lists the area under cultivation in Alberta for canola as 6,679,200 acres in 2018. Let's swap that for something to make bread out of. 1.2x6,679,200=8,015040 tons.
The Alberta Wheat Commission says that there are 6,800,000 acres in Alberta already under cultivation as of 2018. 1.2x6800000=8,160,000 tons.
That's more than 16 million tons of wheat, leaving all the other land and greenhouses available to provide things like next year's seed, vegetables, fruits and other treats the prevent things like rickets and scurvy.
Tada!
(A fun fact is that the Potato Growers of Alberta claimed yields of over 1,000,000 tons (2 billion pounds) for 2018 as well. Lots of options for your carb sources here folks!)
The tricky part then is living until harvest. And setting up a good crop rotation to maintain the soil and keep down the pests in year two and on.
There will be a pause for people to pick this over before I try and figure out what has to be done to feed everyone for the space of time between March first and the projected mid-October harvest expected to carry things for the next year.
Now I feel like this needs some numbers. First some demographic estimates, and then we try and feed them.
Population (in millions) [From Wikipedia, latest estimates]
CANADA
AB: 4.35
BC: 5.02
YT: 0.04
NT: 0.04
NU: Neglected, on the basis that we aren't taking all of the Northwest Territories and I expect it to more or less cancel out
UNITED STATES
AK: 0.74
WA (Counties of Clallam, Whatcom, Skagit, Snohomish, Chelan, Okanogan, Ferry, Stevens, and Pend Oreille (picked based on eyeballing the map)): 1.41
TOTAL: 11.6 million people
Let's call it 12 million for round number math.
Food supply I'm going to see what I can do without touching BCs farming, orchards, fishing, ranching or hunting. Let alone Alaska's surprisingly robust agricultural sector, mostly because I know enough that I don't know where I should be looking for things to add up to make the numbers work there. Also, someone needs to be growing the seed for the next year.
Using Eric Rozier's online calculator for 12 million people and a year gives us: 11,104,684 tons. I'm going to round that up to 15 million tons because no one is perfect and I like a safety margin against starvation!
The Alberta Government Open Data crop information gives the worst yields for wheat as 40.2 bushels per acre. That's slightly more than 1.2 tons of wheat per acre (wheat is 60 pounds to the bushel, so).
The Canola Council of Canada lists the area under cultivation in Alberta for canola as 6,679,200 acres in 2018. Let's swap that for something to make bread out of. 1.2x6,679,200=8,015040 tons.
The Alberta Wheat Commission says that there are 6,800,000 acres in Alberta already under cultivation as of 2018. 1.2x6800000=8,160,000 tons.
That's more than 16 million tons of wheat, leaving all the other land and greenhouses available to provide things like next year's seed, vegetables, fruits and other treats the prevent things like rickets and scurvy.
Tada!
(A fun fact is that the Potato Growers of Alberta claimed yields of over 1,000,000 tons (2 billion pounds) for 2018 as well. Lots of options for your carb sources here folks!)
The tricky part then is living until harvest. And setting up a good crop rotation to maintain the soil and keep down the pests in year two and on.
There will be a pause for people to pick this over before I try and figure out what has to be done to feed everyone for the space of time between March first and the projected mid-October harvest expected to carry things for the next year.
GeshronTyler
Kleiner Giftzwerg
Well, its hard to see just how far south the cut was made in WA. Not sure if Seattle isn't actually south of The Line. If a good chunk of Seattle got included, you might have all or most of the UW campus, maybe a few sattelite campuses North of Seattle. If South Seattle got included, You might have a good chunk of the Seattle Harbor, the industrial areas, and Boeing. Everett looks to be in the Zone, so the industry and harbor there, and the Boeing Plant/Paine Field. Don't know much about Bellingham, but that's pretty close to the border.
There's a mainline railroad link between Vancouver, down to whereever it gets cut off, along the shore. A number of WA Ferries probably got ISOTed, looks like the San Juans came with.
Skagit River valley is agricultural, though cash crop is primarily flowers. Coal fields in the Renton, WA/King County/Tiger Mountain area, likely now restored to "pristine" condition. If only part of Seattle came along, might be some big trouble concerning the massive regrading projects done near the waterfront, plus the hydrological engineering done concerning Lake Washington, Lake Union, Ceder River, Black/Green Rivers, and the Ballard Locks/Ship Canal.
Looks like the "modern" Elwha river on the Pennisula came with, but at least the Dams have been dismantled, and the returning (Legendary!) Salmon runs ought to have a clear path.
The Cut doesn't look far south enough to have gotten Bainbridge/Bangor Naval bases, though if it did, or part of it, maybe even an aircraft carrieer or nuke subs came along. Whidbey Island Naval Station, on the other hand...
From what I recall, the Puget Sound Tribes weren't that aggressive, there was quite a bit of trading going on in the Puget Sound (Whulge, trad. irrc) area. Sealth himself I don't think is born yet, at the least still a child, if Seattle isn't around.
There's a mainline railroad link between Vancouver, down to whereever it gets cut off, along the shore. A number of WA Ferries probably got ISOTed, looks like the San Juans came with.
Skagit River valley is agricultural, though cash crop is primarily flowers. Coal fields in the Renton, WA/King County/Tiger Mountain area, likely now restored to "pristine" condition. If only part of Seattle came along, might be some big trouble concerning the massive regrading projects done near the waterfront, plus the hydrological engineering done concerning Lake Washington, Lake Union, Ceder River, Black/Green Rivers, and the Ballard Locks/Ship Canal.
Looks like the "modern" Elwha river on the Pennisula came with, but at least the Dams have been dismantled, and the returning (Legendary!) Salmon runs ought to have a clear path.
The Cut doesn't look far south enough to have gotten Bainbridge/Bangor Naval bases, though if it did, or part of it, maybe even an aircraft carrieer or nuke subs came along. Whidbey Island Naval Station, on the other hand...
From what I recall, the Puget Sound Tribes weren't that aggressive, there was quite a bit of trading going on in the Puget Sound (Whulge, trad. irrc) area. Sealth himself I don't think is born yet, at the least still a child, if Seattle isn't around.
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A few disjointed thoughts:
Data: A lot of major websites are actually mirrored on cruise ships so people can access them. Most websites would be gone, but a lot of data would still be accessible.
Economics: It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Vancouver would be an economic hub as it has an incredible port area a high population and is at the mouth of an economy; basically the new New York or Tokyo of the world. I wouldn't recommend it as a capitol though. Edmonton or Calgary would be more defensible and closer to food strength. Juneau would get a boost in popularity as another port city with a lot of access to resources, but probably filling a niche like Boston. Paper money wouldn't matter much but Loonies and such would be the big coins again.
Food: They would be in for some tough years, including the Year Without Summer a few decades down the line, but they would be able to plan things out and prepare. No farms, no food. Greenhouse agriculture would be very necessary to keep strains of popular foods going. Any modern fruit and vegetable varieties people can kiss goodbye unless there is a real effort to preserve them.
We were still in the last few decades of the Little Ice Age so it wouldn't be quite as warm as people are used to. Rural area that normally require air travel to get to would be hardest hit. Expect snows far beyond what people are used to.
Travel: Trains would be key to survival since they have the most efficient fuel to weight ratio. Airplanes are not efficient so changes would have to be made. Dog-sledding might be an occupation instead of a pastime.
Trade: people would become master recyclers. Dumps would become mines for resources. Aluminum at this time was worth more than gold; good glass was getting cheaper, but still expensive to produce. Good steel would be an export business. All those abandoned shipping containers would be used quick to bring in resources and deliver finished products to the rest of the world.
Data: A lot of major websites are actually mirrored on cruise ships so people can access them. Most websites would be gone, but a lot of data would still be accessible.
Economics: It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Vancouver would be an economic hub as it has an incredible port area a high population and is at the mouth of an economy; basically the new New York or Tokyo of the world. I wouldn't recommend it as a capitol though. Edmonton or Calgary would be more defensible and closer to food strength. Juneau would get a boost in popularity as another port city with a lot of access to resources, but probably filling a niche like Boston. Paper money wouldn't matter much but Loonies and such would be the big coins again.
Food: They would be in for some tough years, including the Year Without Summer a few decades down the line, but they would be able to plan things out and prepare. No farms, no food. Greenhouse agriculture would be very necessary to keep strains of popular foods going. Any modern fruit and vegetable varieties people can kiss goodbye unless there is a real effort to preserve them.
We were still in the last few decades of the Little Ice Age so it wouldn't be quite as warm as people are used to. Rural area that normally require air travel to get to would be hardest hit. Expect snows far beyond what people are used to.
Travel: Trains would be key to survival since they have the most efficient fuel to weight ratio. Airplanes are not efficient so changes would have to be made. Dog-sledding might be an occupation instead of a pastime.
Trade: people would become master recyclers. Dumps would become mines for resources. Aluminum at this time was worth more than gold; good glass was getting cheaper, but still expensive to produce. Good steel would be an export business. All those abandoned shipping containers would be used quick to bring in resources and deliver finished products to the rest of the world.
March 1st to October 15th.
Yeah.
Let's go full Watney on this.
Going back to the calculator 12 million people need ~212,966.5 tons a week. Let's make that 225,000 tons as a target.
Now, thegood simple news is the first hundred and change days. For that, we're going to be emptying train cars and elevators. Weekly reports by CP and CN show that EACH of these companies claims to move about as much grain as we want to eat a week every week this year. Since cargo trains generally move at about 16km/h we can treat the total time to cross the Event territory from east to west as 1400km at 16km/h or roughly 87.5 hours/~3.646 days. If the trains are evenly distributed, that means we can ballpark it as roughly a week worth of grain on train cars. If the elevators in Alberta have been holding the wheat harvest since last harvest and pouring it out steadily we can take the reported wheat harvest of 10.0 million tons scaled by the week we would be in for grain shipping, basically week 32 of 53, and determine what should still be in various elevators.
10,000,000x(53-32)/53=3,962,264.1509433962264150943396226~=3.9 million tons. That's enough for 17 weeks (17.61 but who's counting?) that might be in the elevators. Maybe an 18th already in the rail cars and whatever might be seized at the dock in ships. That's 130 days. Which is probably enough that it can be stretched with fishing, hunting, ranching, trapping and canned and greenhouse vegetables to cover the whole period.
But why take chances?
Sweet potatoes take roughly 100 days to go from a slip with leaves to bearing useful tubers, tolerate frost not at all, and are in most other ways roughly equivalent to potato potatoes which take closer to 150 days. Short growth times are our friend in intensive agriculture, so sweet potatoes it is.
If we assume that construction of covered container farms - I lean towards a raised platform with raised beds constructed on top of that and all covered by a plastic film roof but I'm just running internet searches here and can only hope that there would be someone with a better idea of what they're doing involved.
With a foot between plant slips on a row, we now have the dimensions of the containers we'll be growing in: One foot wide with a foot and a half between them and as long as we need/can get away with. Since it takes 100 days to mature we need (roughly) 100 days worth of sweet potatoes growing at a time. (Fun side effect, if we keep these structures up and heated this skips over basically all issues with the Year without a Summer. Monocultures are a sin for agriculture though, so we'd need a special mission to pick up and maintain new cultivars ASAP. Seed banks aren't an expense, they're investment folks. )
The numbers I've found for sweet potato yields are in megagrams per hectare(and also from Papua New Guinea). For easy math I'll be treating a megagram (one metric ton) as equivalent to a ton. It makes the math simpler and the conversion is conservative. A hectare is slightly less than 2.5 acres. The worst yields that were found in the study were (converting to what I used in the earlier post) 5.4/2.5-> 2.16 tons/acre.
For this plan, we'd need to floor, roof, heat, (maybe supplemental light too) and run water for 225,000/2.16=104166.67 acres. Call it 105,000 acres or slightly more than 164 square miles a week for 14 weeks. It's not impossible, but this would take some real lifting to make happen. Even much a smaller construction would be good for helping to make up the last few missing tons though, and I expect much heavier cultivation community and market gardens in the growing season after the Event.
Again, all done without touching BCs productive capacity because someone has to be growing the seed for coming years. Or even the big pot greenhouses in Alberta. I mean, they will be diverted to food production, but the math looks like it can be made to work without them.
Next time, unless someone beats me to it and possibly even then, transport outside of the event area. Because water sure does get into the Mississippi from some strange places.
Yeah.
Let's go full Watney on this.
Going back to the calculator 12 million people need ~212,966.5 tons a week. Let's make that 225,000 tons as a target.
Now, the
10,000,000x(53-32)/53=3,962,264.1509433962264150943396226~=3.9 million tons. That's enough for 17 weeks (17.61 but who's counting?) that might be in the elevators. Maybe an 18th already in the rail cars and whatever might be seized at the dock in ships. That's 130 days. Which is probably enough that it can be stretched with fishing, hunting, ranching, trapping and canned and greenhouse vegetables to cover the whole period.
But why take chances?
Sweet potatoes take roughly 100 days to go from a slip with leaves to bearing useful tubers, tolerate frost not at all, and are in most other ways roughly equivalent to potato potatoes which take closer to 150 days. Short growth times are our friend in intensive agriculture, so sweet potatoes it is.
If we assume that construction of covered container farms - I lean towards a raised platform with raised beds constructed on top of that and all covered by a plastic film roof but I'm just running internet searches here and can only hope that there would be someone with a better idea of what they're doing involved.
With a foot between plant slips on a row, we now have the dimensions of the containers we'll be growing in: One foot wide with a foot and a half between them and as long as we need/can get away with. Since it takes 100 days to mature we need (roughly) 100 days worth of sweet potatoes growing at a time. (Fun side effect, if we keep these structures up and heated this skips over basically all issues with the Year without a Summer. Monocultures are a sin for agriculture though, so we'd need a special mission to pick up and maintain new cultivars ASAP. Seed banks aren't an expense, they're investment folks. )
The numbers I've found for sweet potato yields are in megagrams per hectare(and also from Papua New Guinea). For easy math I'll be treating a megagram (one metric ton) as equivalent to a ton. It makes the math simpler and the conversion is conservative. A hectare is slightly less than 2.5 acres. The worst yields that were found in the study were (converting to what I used in the earlier post) 5.4/2.5-> 2.16 tons/acre.
For this plan, we'd need to floor, roof, heat, (maybe supplemental light too) and run water for 225,000/2.16=104166.67 acres. Call it 105,000 acres or slightly more than 164 square miles a week for 14 weeks. It's not impossible, but this would take some real lifting to make happen. Even much a smaller construction would be good for helping to make up the last few missing tons though, and I expect much heavier cultivation community and market gardens in the growing season after the Event.
Again, all done without touching BCs productive capacity because someone has to be growing the seed for coming years. Or even the big pot greenhouses in Alberta. I mean, they will be diverted to food production, but the math looks like it can be made to work without them.
Next time, unless someone beats me to it and possibly even then, transport outside of the event area. Because water sure does get into the Mississippi from some strange places.
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MaHaL
Conductor of the Choir of Death
- Location
- Canada
Uh, that's a problem if you're trying to grow things in Alberta. Frost tends to start coming in September and you won't see the last of it until May or April depending.
I'm aware of the frost patterns in Alberta. I'm in Edmonton.
That's why I have it being grown via controlled-environment agriculture, or to step back from the current state of the ag buzzword art, greenhouses with raised beds on raised floors.