One day before the Iran Iraq War breaks out the Iran of 2019 replaces the one of 1980. What...
2019 Iran ISOT to 1980
- Thread starter Kahing
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Cloak&Dagger
Definitely Insane
Iran will easily conquer Iraq, and it will quickly develop itself as a new great power by leveraging its technology advantage.
The international hatred of Iran will probably dissipate now that they're a major player with a lot to offer friendly nations.
The international hatred of Iran will probably dissipate now that they're a major player with a lot to offer friendly nations.
- Location
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Iran annexing Iraq is implausible. The most likely result of a successful Iranian invasion of Iraq will likely be an independent South (Iraqi) Kurdistan being established and a Shia-dominated puppet government of Iran being established in Iraq proper.
Cloak&Dagger
Definitely Insane
Only in your delusions.
Iran isn't going to create a state that has claims to its own territory, and they aren't going to let Iraq exist after what they did to them historically.
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Iran supported the Kurdish independence movement in South (Iraqi) Kurdistan during the Iraq-Iran war, and Iran supported Shia political movements in Iraq proper during the Iraq-Iran war. Iran will not establish an independent South (Iraqi) Kurdistan. South Kurdistan will secede from Iraq during the collapse of the Iraqi state. But Turkey will be strongly opposed to an independent South Kurdistan, which will likely cause independent South Kurdistan to gravitate towards an alliance with USSR.
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- Location
- California
TEchnologically? Iran is now the most advanced power on the planet. Now they can't leverage that, not without help, because of their industrial bottlenecking, but given their hostility to the US, I'm certain they and Russia can come to... An arrangement.
the atom
Anarcho-Kemalist Thought Leader
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Iran has more than enough restive ethnic minorities to worry about as it is. Directly annexing Iraq wouldn't accomplish anything for them. I can see them maaaaybe sniping the coast off but they aren't going to be digesting millions of angry Arabs.
They probably would split the Kurds off as well just for good measure.
EDIT: The real issue here is NATO though. They wouldn't tolerate Iranian hegemony in the region for any longer than they have to.
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Kahing
Licking doorknobs is illegal on other planets
- Location
- Netanya, Israel
Keep in mind that while Iran is in many respects more advanced than Iraq in 1980, it's military is still outdated by 2019 standards. It's biggest advantage is it's massive ballistic missile force, as well as computers. With Ayatollah Khomeini not in charge it might have less qualms about responding to Iraqi poison gas attacks with it's own chemical weapons.
- Location
- Upstate NY, USA
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- Fjf
Fixed that typo for you
From a US perspective, it would be interesting to see what Ted Koppel talked about every night, once the embassy hostages have been ROB'd \ ASB'd out of this timeline. I'm also assuming that the newly transposed government of Iran would happily embarrass the Reagan campaign by releasing 'uptime' information about how George HW Bush was negotiating with Khomeini to hold the hostages until after the 1980 election.
One huge difference will be the existence of a professional, stable diplomatic corps working for Iran. Khomeini's government appointed people to positions based on how devout they were, not their qualifications.
I'm also assuming there are Github repositories in Iran that made the transition to 1980. So we can look forward to another 40 odd years of KDE vs Gnome arguments.
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Maybe not all of it, but quite alot of it. Iran is Shiite, the majority of Iraq is also Shiite, Iraq at the time of Saddam was controlled by the Sunni muslims. Iran may be able to take control of those areas."Iran will annex Iraq"
the atom
Anarcho-Kemalist Thought Leader
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Despite the best wishes of the Ayatollahs this connection has never been anywhere near that deep.
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- Cibao Wilayet, Caliphate of Quisqueya
Iran has no interest in annexing Iraq, especially not the minute the country realizes its 1980. No what they'll do is a quick regime change, make a client state, a final arbitration on the Shatt Al Arab border, and try to get everything back to normal in order to leverage their now (by regional standards) massive economy.
If anything the Iraqis are going to spend the better part of the 80s influencing Afghanistan and Pakistan, given how the Soviet-Afghan war kicked 1 million refugees into Iran.
If anything the Iraqis are going to spend the better part of the 80s influencing Afghanistan and Pakistan, given how the Soviet-Afghan war kicked 1 million refugees into Iran.
Redditredcoat
American Loyalist
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Ahh you and Kurdistan ...I swear not every PoD leads to independent Kurdistan
Realistically, the scariest thing is Iran has two of Qasem Soleimani
Seriously Soleimani was once reported by Mossad as being in three countries at the same time.
He's the kind of Insurgency-Maker/Spymaster you wish you had, and in this TL he's running 39 years ahead of everyone else. And his Downtime counterpart is in Iraq already so Iran has Two of him.
Seriously Soleimani was once reported by Mossad as being in three countries at the same time.
He's the kind of Insurgency-Maker/Spymaster you wish you had, and in this TL he's running 39 years ahead of everyone else. And his Downtime counterpart is in Iraq already so Iran has Two of him.
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- oreegon, USA
Iran might be able to reconcile with the US. Evidently Jimmy Carter was instrumental in the Ayatollah Khomeini's return.
US had extensive contact with Ayatollah Khomeini before Iran revolution
US had extensive contact with Ayatollah Khomeini before Iran revolution
US had extensive contact with Ayatollah Khomeini before Iran revolution
US had extensive contact with Ayatollah Khomeini before Iran revolution