Are you seriously telling me the Fate route has any chance of still happening with all that's happened and the deviations we'll continue to pull off?
And remember that the master canon Medea killed is still around as well.
Actually, no it hasn't. Kirei is still the master of Cu, so unless we get him away from the fake priest he's still gonna fight Archer, and Shirou's still gonna go through all the motions that gets him killed and ends up summoning Saber.
So nothing's really been butterflied as of yet. Which means that things will continue as normal.
And his involvement in the war by witnessing the Archer-Lancer fight can't be?
If we manage to take out Kirei before then, sure. But it's going to be difficult to do so seeing as how Gil is still hanging around the Church and Kirei has literally no reason to leave right now.
With Bazzett as proof that he's violated the rules of the Grail War then things might be simpler, but I wouldn't count on him ordering Cu to either kill himself or go straight for the jugular and send him after us. And with Cu's abilities, I personally wouldn't want to fight him one-on-one.
The Herc situation will happen regardless. Illya will be coming for Shirou, so I think it's better if he at least has someone competent to watch over him while still keeping his healing factor since he'll inevitably do something stupidly suicidal.
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