Through careful discussion with wine and beer soaked traders and merchants, it was becoming clear that not only was the nomad the chiefs had brought in as king fighting the Xohyssiri, he had also managed to antagonize the Highlanders and the Thunder Speakers. Before they had ignored the People as not worth the trouble, even as they had realized that the People were remarkably dangerous. Now though... now it was clear that they were seeing the People as an existential threat. The two groups had been attempting to coordinate and wait out the current king, figuring that his successor would be less martially inclined and they could catch them over committed, but the Highlanders had suffered severely these past few years and thus there were a few refugees that had let slip while drunk the discussions they had overheard, which had lead to Rulwyna carefully intercepting a few key merchants and thus the communications between the Highland King and the Thunder Speaker.
Called it.
War Preparations
[] [War] Hope the king wins quickly
[] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[] [War] Withdraw all forces (-1 Legitimacy, Rulwyna becomes queen)
Basically what I was advocating.
Ok, I'm done being smug.
Now, onto analysis.
Fake Edit: Dammit, AN, stop ruining my post with clarifications. I had to rewrite these sections multiple times.
I want Rulwyna as queen, but we have WoG that she'll have another chance at it. In this case, we can save our Legitimacy which also allows Festivals at a higher Stability and it lets us spend only a secondary war mission on vassal defence.
She did an analysis of how we could collapse, so it's possible she has Heroic Admin and possible our first look at Heroic Intrigue. Luckily, we can elect her later on.
What new designs are being developed by the merchants?
[] [Boat] New design: Size
[] [Boat] New design: Speed
[] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
Climate Instability is still going on, so seaworthiness. It also will help in the future when we're doing ocean travel. Bulk is better short term, but fixing the trade penalty now would be useful. Not having to worry about Wealth would be nice.
A number of miners want to attempt to apply the mills to grind their ores
[] [Mill] Denied
[] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
[] [Mill] Greater permission (-3 Wealth, -1 Art, -2 Centralization, +3 Econ, increased potential for innovation)
Lesser Permission so we don't drop too much centralization.
The Stallions found something very interesting in a quarry and are asking for additional support to develop it
[] [WC] They can do it themselves (Stallions displeased)
[] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[] [WC] Greater assistance (-3 Art, -2 Centralization, Stallions very pleased, ???)
Stallions are going to develop this anyways. Lesser Assistance so the Stallions are not displeased. Not too much of a Centralization loss.
The Sacred Forest Renewal seems to be on the verge of completion, but can the People afford it?
[] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
-[] [Main] Kick the Megaproject (Pay 1 Stability, gain another Main action)
[] [Main] Main New Settlement - Far Eastern Redhills
[] [Main] Main Expand Economy
[] [Main] Main Build Mill
So we have a chance of getting a Stability hit from bad admin ordering. If we don't complete it this turn, we could take a stability hit regardless of what happens. Let's assume the worst case and Sacred Forest Renewal goes first and brings us to 0 Econ. Finishing gives us a Stability but could also trigger a loss first so it is neutral.
We're also low on Economy and Econ Slots this turn. We cannot afford to do Expand Economy since we're low on slots and we're taking in refugees. Bad Admin ordering will also punish us here. New settlement is going to strain our system even more. If we kick, we Build Mills.
How welcoming were the People of strangers in this time of trouble?
[] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
[] [Refugee] They were helping to create refugees, they should help more (-1 Stability, chance of further loss, +4-5 Econ)
[] [Refugee] They should take in as many as they could (-2 Stability, chance of further loss, +6-8 Econ, overcrowding)
We take the safest option so we have some leeway with Stability.
So:
[X] [War] Withdraw main forces to defend Redhills, leave vassals and Red Banner
[X] [Boat] New design: Seaworthiness
[X] [Mill] Lesser permission (-2 Wealth, -1 Art, -1 Centralization, +2 Econ, potential for innovation)
[X] [WC] Lesser assistance (-2 Art, -1 Centralization, Stallions pleased, ???)
[X] [Main] Sacred Forest Renewal Completion (-2 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Art)
-[X] [Main] Kick the Megaproject (Pay 1 Stability, gain another Main action)
[X] [Main] Main Build Mill
[X] [Refugee] They accepted all who came (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
Worst case, it's:
Legitimacy 3
Stability 1 - 1 (Bad Admin Ordering -> 0 Econ) - 1 (Kick) + 1 (Megaproject Completion) - 1 (Refugees) = -1
Total is 3 - 1 = 2 so we're not completely dead.
Econ 2 - 2 (Sacred Forest Renewal) + 3 (Build Mills) + 2 (Mills Research) + 2 (Refugees) = 7 with a chance of dipping to 0.
Econ Expansion 6 - 2 (Refugees) + 2 (Sacred Forest Renewal) = 6
Centralization 5 - 1 (Mills Research) - 1 (Stallion Support) = 3
Art 6 - 1 (Sacred Forest Renewal) - 1 (Build Mills) - 1 (Mills Research) - 2 (Stallion support) = 1
Wealth 9 - 3 (Build Mills) - 2 (Mills Research) = 5
Before any recurring costs and weather hits. There's enough leeway to keep us alive.
I've noticed some misinformation being spread around so I'll correct some of them after dinner.
