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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Spector29 said:
Fun demographics question that arose from a joke one of my Naruto 5e players made; Which is least likely?

1. 40-year old Genin
2. 40-year old Chunin
3. 40-year old Jonin

My argument is for the 40-year old Chunin being least common, as they're in the skill overlap between "Goes on dangerous missions" but not quite in the bracket "Survives dangerous missions."
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Here's a crappy Python script which answers this question.

You can/should tweak the probabilities on lines 7 through 13: they're the odds that in a given year, the specified thing (promotion, death) happens. This model assumes that you become a genin at 13; you can change that, too.

With the probabilities I threw in there at literally random, everyone has a 20% chance of dying and a 5% chance of being promoted to the next level (except jonin, who can't be promoted further). The results are that by age 40, you're roughly twice as likely to be a chuunin as a genin, twice as likely to be a jonin as a chuunin and a thousand times more likely to be dead than a jonin.
 
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Spector29 said:
Fun demographics question that arose from a joke one of my Naruto 5e players made; Which is least likely?

1. 40-year old Genin
2. 40-year old Chunin
3. 40-year old Jonin

My argument is for the 40-year old Chunin being least common, as they're in the skill overlap between "Goes on dangerous missions" but not quite in the bracket "Survives dangerous missions."
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Least likely as in "of all 40 year olds, how common are each of these" or least likely in terms of "what proportion of a given rank are they"?

Because I'd imagine among jonin that are actually alive, a small but decently sized percentage of them (5%? 10%?) are middle aged, like Ritsuo and Shikigami for instance. But jonin are so rare that you may outcompete them just by there being so many more chuunin and genin. I don't think you would survive to 40 being a genin though, so I think in terms of 'how many of these guys in the world are there' 40-year-old chuunin would take the lead, generally becoming permanent in the form of some career-inhibiting injury after failing to reach jonin.
 
FaintlySorcerous said:
Here's a crappy Python script which answers this question.

You can/should tweak the probabilities on lines 7 through 13: they're the odds that in a given year, the specified thing (promotion, death) happens. This model assumes that you become a genin at 13; you can change that, too.

With the probabilities I threw in there at literally random, everyone has a 20% chance of dying and a 5% chance of being promoted to the next level (except jonin, who can't be promoted further). The results are that by age 40, you're roughly twice as likely to be a chuunin as a genin, twice as likely to be a jonin as a chuunin and a thousand times more likely to be dead than a jonin.
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One would assume the probability to not be constant per year. For example, someone who just made genin last year should likely not have the same probability of making chuunin on the next as they would after 5 years as a genin. In fact, it should simply be more or less impossible for them to progress two ranks within a year. Especially in the MfD system where your power as a ninja grows via experience gain. Now, you can certainly grow exp through lootboxes and such (which were added as a thing relatively recently), and you might need skill cap unlocks to progress at all, which means you need to brave danger, but the basis of it all is still daily exp which depends on talent level.

So its not "odds to be promoted", rather "as long as you actually put in the effort and do the things necessary to get skill cap increases, your exp will grow according to your talent level, plus lootbox bonuses if you get access to them. You will then predictably hit genin/chuunin/jounin etc at arbitrary XP thresholds. If your build is good and/or you have access to good shinies, that XP threshold might be lower, otherwise it might be higher, but its not an if, its when.

There are three scenarios :
1 : You stay home and do nothing of note and don't progress as a ninja. At some point your skills might even decay (for example Jiraiya had to keep training constantly just to not lose his already gained skill levels from old age). In this case you might well stay a genin. Of course normally you can't just do this because you have responsibilities, but its technically possible. Also could happen if you get a debilitating injury - you will likely just spend the rest of your days at whatever level you were before (+the effects of that injury) and cease progressing as a ninja. So being a genin at 40 yo should be reasonably common via that alone, and chuunin as well - that's where the majority of ninja die after all and hence also where most cripples would end up ending their ninja careers.

2 : You train and live and die before 40 yo (very likely).

3. You train and live and don't die before 40 yo. At that point, you are no doubt a jounin, even with a terrible XP rate and zero shinies, through nothing more than simple XP accumulation. Even a 1.0 XP rate ends up being 12k XP or so by that age.
 
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Crunbum said:
One would assume the probability to not be constant per year. For example, someone who just made genin last year should likely not have the same probability of making chuunin on the next as they would after 5 years as a genin. In fact, it should simply be more or less impossible for them to progress two ranks within a year. Especially in the MfD system where your power as a ninja grows via experience gain. Now, you can certainly grow exp through lootboxes and such (which were added as a thing relatively recently), and you might need skill cap unlocks to progress at all, which means you need to brave danger, but the basis of it all is still daily exp which depends on talent level.

So its not "odds to be promoted", rather "as long as you actually put in the effort and do the things necessary to get skill cap increases, your exp will grow according to your talent level, plus lootbox bonuses if you get access to them. You will then predictably hit genin/chuunin/jounin etc at arbitrary XP thresholds. If your build is good and/or you have access to good shinies, that XP threshold might be lower, otherwise it might be higher, but its not an if, its when.

There are three scenarios :
1 : You stay home and do nothing of note and don't progress as a ninja. At some point your skills might even decay (for example Jiraiya had to keep training constantly just to not lose his already gained skill levels from old age). In this case you might well stay a genin. Of course normally you can't just do this because you have responsibilities, but its technically possible. Also could happen if you get a debilitating injury - you will likely just spend the rest of your days at whatever level you were before (+the effects of that injury) and cease progressing as a ninja. So being a genin at 40 yo should be reasonably common via that alone, and chuunin as well - that's where the majority of ninja die after all and hence also where most cripples would end up ending their ninja careers.

2 : You train and live and die before 40 yo (very likely).

3. You train and live and don't die before 40 yo. At that point, you are no doubt a jounin, even with a terrible XP rate and zero shinies, through nothing more than simple XP accumulation.
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It's not a very good model, no. Breaking it out into 71 categories (32-year-old chuunin, 13-year-old-genin, 27-year-old jonin, etc.) with individual transition probabilities would help. That said, every model makes compromises and things like 'the average genin has a 5% chance of promotion each year' seems a fair one to me for the ~10 minutes I had to work on this.

If you can gin up all those probabilities (N-year-old $rank is killed/promoted for N between 13 and 40 and all three ranks) I can extend the script but I don't have the juice to come up with numbers good enough to make it worth it.

That said, I somewhat disagree with your interpretation - specifically, the idea that anyone who just keeps at it until 40 without dying or taking a career-ending hit will inevitably become a jonin. I suspect that, in a fully-fleshed-out version of the rules meant to apply to every chakra-capable human and not just player characters, who are exceptional, effective XP rate drops with time and that there are probably plenty of chuunin out there who train regularly...but just enough to cancel out the age-related decay penalty or rust or whatever, so they stay forever chuunin.
 
Would some sort of 'never advance beyond your current rank' parameter significantly increase the accuracy of my model? That wouldn't be hard to do and it covers both a lack of ambition and injuries.
 
Crunbum said:
Even a 1.0 XP rate ends up being 12k XP or so by that age.
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If you make like half of your pyramid jutsu you need about 13k to get 3 60s. You can manage 60/60/59 with 12k and making your 50s/40s all jutsu, but your build will be utter garbage, which makes me question if these stats would be sufficient to achieve joninhood with no shinies of note, since we've been told jonin are expected to display competence in fields other than their primary skillset (in this case, probably combat.)

edit: seems a bit more feasible to be low jonin with 60/59/59 and still have appreciable stats in skills other than jutsu. Whether you would manage to survive to 40 to get there is another question

Velorien said:
The criteria for jōnin promotion are kept deliberately obscure--jōnin rank comes with a variety of notable privileges (both pragmatic and reputational), and the last thing the Tower wants is for somebody to game the system and achieve an unwarranted promotion, only to mess up Tower strength estimates with inaccurate data and then die on a jōnin-level mission with high stakes. However, it is generally assumed that a jōnin candidate will display both outstanding excellence in their specialisation and superior performance outside it (a jōnin who fails a mission just because they were unable to bring their best skill to bear is no jōnin at all). In general, ninja who overspecialise tend to hit their limit as special jōnin, while complete generalist jōnin are rare (Kadokura Ruri is a notable example). A stellar record of service is, of course, taken for granted, as is the favour of the Will of Fire. Rumours of a special "jōnin exam" persist in both Leaf and Mist, but no one has ever admitted that such a thing exists (even Mari refuses to comment, though in her case it's probably just to mess with you).

History records jōnin of every possible specialisation and none, including sealmaster jōnin (Namikaze Minato), summoning jōnin (Hanzō of the Salamander), seduction jōnin (Ayame the Thrice-Lecherous, one of history's greatest disguise kit users), puppet jōnin (Sasori of the Red Sands), and logistics jōnin (Mori Ryūgamine).
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As per this handy dandy guide...

[x] Noburi Training Plan: The Next Tsunade
Medical Knowledge 35 -> 40
XP remaining: 30

Disclaimer: this does not account for whatever Bonus Medical Tsunade XP that Noburi's earned. Idk how much of that he's earned, so this is drawing solely and purely on his more "universal" experience pool
 
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RandomOTP said:
As per this handy dandy guide...

[x] Noburi Training Plan: The Next Tsunade
Medical Knowledge 35 -> 40
XP remaining: 30

Disclaimer: this does not account for whatever Bonus Medical Tsunade XP that Noburi's earned. Idk how much of that he's earned, so this is drawing solely and purely on his more "universal" experience pool
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Actually while we're at it we may as well also do the next step in your plan as well and spend 20 of our remaining XP on raising Deceit 19 -> 20
 
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Hey y'all, I'm tired, fighting the remnants of a cold, and am currently in post-work brain mode. Numbers may be incorrect, but here's what I've got.

Timeline Updates:
  • November 4-5th: Chapter 571, part 3. Author's Note says it took 3 days
  • November 8th: 573, Author's Note Says that it took 2 Days
    • (wibbly wobbly, timey wimey stuff happens)
  • November 10th: 577, some temporally displaced interludes, and 578
The current date of the quest is November 10th, maybe November 11th (time got a little funky).

We receive Noburi's announcement of Tsunade's "Prove Your Worth" challenge here. This is posted just after the temporally-displaced Interlude where Noburi checks in on Mio's adoption interview (just scroll up).

However, the lastest "present" chapter prior to Mio's interlude is chapter 577 (link listed above), which took place on November 10th. So let's assume that's when Noburi got told the news, and let's assume that chapter 577 is when the XP bonus and the 2 month countdown begins. That means he's only received the bonus multiplier for 1 day's worth of XP.

I forget what Noburi's normal XP rate is, but his character sheet says that he earned 12xp for chapter 573, which is a two day update. So that's a 6 xp rate? Wild. Probably missing something there, idk.

So (6 base rate * 3 multiplier) = 18 Medical XP gathered from 577.

Needs QM approval before we base any action plans on it.
 
[x] Noburi Training Plan: The Next Tsunade

RandomOTP said:
I forget what Noburi's normal XP rate is, but his character sheet says that he earned 12xp for chapter 573, which is a two day update. So that's a 6 xp rate? Wild. Probably missing something there, idk.
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I don't think base rate matters here. IIRC I think we were told he's just getting a flat 3/day to use for medical stats.

Paperclipped said:
For the duration of this time, Noburi will earn an extra 3 XP/day, spendable only on Medical Knowledge or Medical Ninjutsu. We will track this separately.
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[x] Noburi Training Plan: The Next Tsunade + Deceit
Medical Knowledge 35 -> 40
Deceit 19 -> 20
XP Remaining: 10

This gets Noburi a much-needed 20 block to build pyramid support. Raising a 10-stat to a 20-stat is part 2 of this handy dandy walkthrough.

I, personally, think that Deceit should be chosen to facilitate better opsec (regarding FOOM and all our other clan secrets). However, there's an argument to be made for one of the other 10-stats to be raised to the 20-block (such as Presence or Intimidation).

Think carefully. Vote, abstain, make your own action plan, plot to subvert the narrative by ascending to the ranks of the QMs and leveraging that power for S-rank Godhood (/joking, promise, brain swiss and this amusing)... do as you will
 
Oneiros said:
Sad that we're giving up sage mode when it's so close
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More like delaying (and I'm unsure how close sage mode really is) but admittedly med skills feel like a waste sometimes. There's just a lotta other mechanics stuff to hammer out before they get another look unfortunately

Still, an actual apprenticeship with Tsunade would likely translate to a base rate improvement for Noburi + access to her cool shit so in that regard it is not a waste
 
Shrooms said:
Still, an actual apprenticeship with Tsunade would likely translate to a base rate improvement for Noburi + access to her cool shit so in that regard it is not a waste
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This, tbh. Tsunade is a medic, but is also a feared combatant. Even if she doesn't give Noburi Strength of a Hundred, I'm sure that there are other shinies that would make Noburi terrifying in combat.

An apprenticeship to an S-ranker is... well, it's an apprenticeship to an S-ranker.
 
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