Arch-Demon's Eternal Game 3: Weren't We Just Here? (Mafia)
- Thread starter Terrabrand
- Start date
- Mafia
Archeo Lumiere
The Prince's Archivist
- Location
- Lumiose City, Kalos
- Pronouns
- He/Him/They/Them
Yo, here, was with Mom immediately after work.
[X] Null
Something's going on, but not sure what... Gonna leave it there for now.
[X] Null
Something's going on, but not sure what... Gonna leave it there for now.
- Pronouns
- She/Her
????????
You don't need to go in depth if it'll tell too much... but I really want a bit more than this when you have time please
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I'm going to do this 1K analysis old school and go post-by-post, so meet me in the tags dawgs.
Just kinda jokey early game filler. Not a big deal and random wagon vote on IJW for random reasons. Not too much to say about this one.
I mean, I'm not sure what to say about this. There are roughly 5 pages of content with some randomness and setup spec mixed in, and 1K has nothing to say about absolutely any of it? Absolutely no thoughts? Not even any gutreads? And let's look at the way 1K frames this, it isn't "Okay I'm sorry that I haven't been active, I don't have many reads, I'll get to it later" or even something apologetic like "I'm sorry I don't have any reads at the moment, it's still early and earlygame isn't my thing", her argument is "I don't have reads and I shouldn't be expected to have reads or contribute to moving the gamestate forward. Roughly nothing is ever going to happen if we just shrug and say "It's early still! Can't really say anything". 1K doesn't even try to contribute, and instead of being apologetic about it or putting in even really mild reads she has or anything she thinks could be important to note for later when we do have more data, merely tries to sweep it under the rug as natural. That bothers the heck out of me.
That is it for her D1 contributions. 0 posts of content, 3 random voting stage posts, and one post saying that she shouldn't be expected to have anything to say. Let's move onto Day 2.
Her first post is just saying that she has nothing to report so I won't bother quoting it. Next post.
On the one hand, this post does actually provide original content, while it's slightly similar to Nictis' #288, the rationale is slightly different. That having been said, I find it a bit odd that 1K didn't note this in her initial post a couple hours prior. Basically all that has changed is that Nictis (and Comi I guess to an extent but much less so) have chimed in, and Nictis voted Absum, allowing for a bandwagon to potentially start. That said when Absum responds, 1K immediatehops off with no reason given. I'm not sure what to really... make of all this, it's slightly suspect but mostly just kinda strange to me.
Now she is saying lynch Absum again, and I don't see what is supposed to be different. What changed between 1K of Post #291 and 1K of post #325. None of this is new to the thread as an insight or couldn't have ben theorized 30 posts ago. All that has changed is that Comi and Cyri have added their votes. She doesn't engage with Absum's dialogue at this point or his rationales or why she finds them unconvincing, she just kinda tries to direct night actions and chain lynches (it's not as big a deal in this context as it normally is, it's not really a controversial gameplan, but this sort of thing just generally bothers me) and then hops onto the wagon. It feels really sheepy.
This post isn't terrible in itself. I'm not comfortable wtih the whole directing night actions and chaining lynches thing, but it's not a terible gameplan. But when Comi points out the slightly strange thing that if Absum is scum we don't really need to do this, here's 1K's response.
Except that if Absum flipped scum, we would have an explanation for the night with no kill. 1K is not only trying to direct night actions and chain lynches here, she is doing so on the basis of information that has already been explained. Now, if she otherwise found Cyri suspicious, that's fine, but that has never come up in her posts prior to this one. Her onlyratioanle for why Cyri is suspicious is that he was roped (and doused, though I don't get why that's not a reason to not lynch him because the problem will resolve itself), but even if Absum is killed and flips scum, thus explaining what is going on with the ropes,1K still wants us to divide energy both night and day to eliminating and controlling Cyri, when him being roped is all that she found suspicious?
As I think I mentioned, this bugged me slightly at the time and I couldn't pin down why. It's not unreasonable speculation, but I think I've realized what bugged me-1K isn't citing independent reasoning why Cyri is suspicous. She's putting all her cards on the "rope" horse, even though she thinks Absum is more suspicious and if he were scum, the rope shenanigans would be explained. I find it kind of interesting how hard 1K is pushing all this, and I can't help but wonder if it's because she has realized she can potentially both control 1-2 ropers and chain another lynch, both on people not on her team.
Slightly echoing me and Nictis here, nothing terribly original.
This feels kind of interesting given how 1K wants Cyri to be roped and probably lynched even if Absum flpis scum. And she doesn't interrogate Cyri's posts up to this point, look for anything suspicious, explain what Absum is suspicious... anything like that. I legit don't know her argument for Absum being worse than Cyri, reading her posts, and the only conclusion is what a slightly uncharitable reading could lend to the end of this post- that that's because that is who town has decided is more scummy.
I can understand RL stuff, that's fine. But while 1K is here, she isn't really investiating anything. She isn't exploring any other options, she isn't even exploring Cyri and Absum and which is the better option in her opinion, with reasons as to why. She basically has been monofocused on this one thing, but I can't help but get the sense that that's because it's what town is monofocused on, and she went with Absum over Cyri because that is what town decided. At least, I can find nothing in her posts that makes that an unreasonable reading.
She then late-votes Q, kind of justgoing with the flow and echoing consensus without really exploring any options or interrogating them as to what exactly is more likely.
So, here we are. 1K did nothing on D1, and then really seemed to hit theground running on D2,which is interesting given Comi's earlier potential observation, and has largely been monofoused on what the entriety of town has been monofocused on, without trying to explore any other avenues or do anything else, along with some rather weird attempts to direct night actions and chain lynches even if Absum flips scum, thereby seeming to resolve the problem given that she has provided no real reasons for Cyri to be more suspicious, and given her posts, even she seems to agree that Absum is the more suspicious one. This then continues into her vote on Q.
Yeah I'm pretty satisfied with my vote.
Just kinda jokey early game filler. Not a big deal and random wagon vote on IJW for random reasons. Not too much to say about this one.
I mean, I'm not sure what to say about this. There are roughly 5 pages of content with some randomness and setup spec mixed in, and 1K has nothing to say about absolutely any of it? Absolutely no thoughts? Not even any gutreads? And let's look at the way 1K frames this, it isn't "Okay I'm sorry that I haven't been active, I don't have many reads, I'll get to it later" or even something apologetic like "I'm sorry I don't have any reads at the moment, it's still early and earlygame isn't my thing", her argument is "I don't have reads and I shouldn't be expected to have reads or contribute to moving the gamestate forward. Roughly nothing is ever going to happen if we just shrug and say "It's early still! Can't really say anything". 1K doesn't even try to contribute, and instead of being apologetic about it or putting in even really mild reads she has or anything she thinks could be important to note for later when we do have more data, merely tries to sweep it under the rug as natural. That bothers the heck out of me.
That is it for her D1 contributions. 0 posts of content, 3 random voting stage posts, and one post saying that she shouldn't be expected to have anything to say. Let's move onto Day 2.
Her first post is just saying that she has nothing to report so I won't bother quoting it. Next post.
On the one hand, this post does actually provide original content, while it's slightly similar to Nictis' #288, the rationale is slightly different. That having been said, I find it a bit odd that 1K didn't note this in her initial post a couple hours prior. Basically all that has changed is that Nictis (and Comi I guess to an extent but much less so) have chimed in, and Nictis voted Absum, allowing for a bandwagon to potentially start. That said when Absum responds, 1K immediatehops off with no reason given. I'm not sure what to really... make of all this, it's slightly suspect but mostly just kinda strange to me.
It's pretty simple. We lynch Absum now, and whomever roped cyri last night should do it again (hopefully they're town and are paying attention). Then we can see what's up, qnd maybe lynch cyri next round. That's my two cents on our general gameplan here.
[] Lynch Absum
Now she is saying lynch Absum again, and I don't see what is supposed to be different. What changed between 1K of Post #291 and 1K of post #325. None of this is new to the thread as an insight or couldn't have ben theorized 30 posts ago. All that has changed is that Comi and Cyri have added their votes. She doesn't engage with Absum's dialogue at this point or his rationales or why she finds them unconvincing, she just kinda tries to direct night actions and chain lynches (it's not as big a deal in this context as it normally is, it's not really a controversial gameplan, but this sort of thing just generally bothers me) and then hops onto the wagon. It feels really sheepy.
This post isn't terrible in itself. I'm not comfortable wtih the whole directing night actions and chaining lynches thing, but it's not a terible gameplan. But when Comi points out the slightly strange thing that if Absum is scum we don't really need to do this, here's 1K's response.
Except that if Absum flipped scum, we would have an explanation for the night with no kill. 1K is not only trying to direct night actions and chain lynches here, she is doing so on the basis of information that has already been explained. Now, if she otherwise found Cyri suspicious, that's fine, but that has never come up in her posts prior to this one. Her onlyratioanle for why Cyri is suspicious is that he was roped (and doused, though I don't get why that's not a reason to not lynch him because the problem will resolve itself), but even if Absum is killed and flips scum, thus explaining what is going on with the ropes,1K still wants us to divide energy both night and day to eliminating and controlling Cyri, when him being roped is all that she found suspicious?
As I think I mentioned, this bugged me slightly at the time and I couldn't pin down why. It's not unreasonable speculation, but I think I've realized what bugged me-1K isn't citing independent reasoning why Cyri is suspicous. She's putting all her cards on the "rope" horse, even though she thinks Absum is more suspicious and if he were scum, the rope shenanigans would be explained. I find it kind of interesting how hard 1K is pushing all this, and I can't help but wonder if it's because she has realized she can potentially both control 1-2 ropers and chain another lynch, both on people not on her team.
Slightly echoing me and Nictis here, nothing terribly original.
This feels kind of interesting given how 1K wants Cyri to be roped and probably lynched even if Absum flpis scum. And she doesn't interrogate Cyri's posts up to this point, look for anything suspicious, explain what Absum is suspicious... anything like that. I legit don't know her argument for Absum being worse than Cyri, reading her posts, and the only conclusion is what a slightly uncharitable reading could lend to the end of this post- that that's because that is who town has decided is more scummy.
I can understand RL stuff, that's fine. But while 1K is here, she isn't really investiating anything. She isn't exploring any other options, she isn't even exploring Cyri and Absum and which is the better option in her opinion, with reasons as to why. She basically has been monofocused on this one thing, but I can't help but get the sense that that's because it's what town is monofocused on, and she went with Absum over Cyri because that is what town decided. At least, I can find nothing in her posts that makes that an unreasonable reading.
She then late-votes Q, kind of justgoing with the flow and echoing consensus without really exploring any options or interrogating them as to what exactly is more likely.
So, here we are. 1K did nothing on D1, and then really seemed to hit theground running on D2,which is interesting given Comi's earlier potential observation, and has largely been monofoused on what the entriety of town has been monofocused on, without trying to explore any other avenues or do anything else, along with some rather weird attempts to direct night actions and chain lynches even if Absum flips scum, thereby seeming to resolve the problem given that she has provided no real reasons for Cyri to be more suspicious, and given her posts, even she seems to agree that Absum is the more suspicious one. This then continues into her vote on Q.
Yeah I'm pretty satisfied with my vote.
- Pronouns
- She/Her
The main other options I see are TMR, Archeo, and Pawn atm, and I could be persuaded to switch to any of them if there are valid points against my 1K analysis here.
- Location
- Florida
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Nah, your analysis definitely raised a few good points and I don't see any fault in it.
[X] Null
[X] Lynch 1KBestK
- Location
- Hell
- Pronouns
- She/Her
The conversation had moved on by the time i had figured out I had things mixed up during this exchange - I didn't know what dousing meant, and was trying to look it up. I was also kinda just trying to think of any information we had that was pretty concrete, and focus on that, rather than trying to get a read on someone in particular. That's why I didn't ask 'what if they're lying about the rope' as well - I felt like it was pretty likely that they had been roped. The question was a genuine one - I truthfully didn't know the answer, and was looking for input. I didn't really have anything else to go on, and I was only getting minor feels towards one person. That's why I've been spending the most time on the more agreed upon stuff.
- Location
- Phoenix, Arizona
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Given the pattern of behavior that BB pointed out from 1k, I might say that they could be the Mind Eater.
The whole "spend D1 quiet and then do town once you have a slave to protect you" thing fits up really well with the established behavior.
Of course, the issue is, it also fits for anyone who was relatively inactive D1, like me or Archeo.
It definitely upped 1k on my scum charts, but given that they have 3 voters, I figure that's enough for now.
The whole "spend D1 quiet and then do town once you have a slave to protect you" thing fits up really well with the established behavior.
Of course, the issue is, it also fits for anyone who was relatively inactive D1, like me or Archeo.
It definitely upped 1k on my scum charts, but given that they have 3 voters, I figure that's enough for now.
- Location
- Hell
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I mean, my posting is pretty consistent with how I play this game. I have long intervals of not looking here (work), then I come back, read the backlog, consider the arguments, then make a post on where I'm at. So far, my conclusions have lined up pretty well with everyone else's, so I've mostly been echoing others. Like, there's nothing complicated about it. My only other hunch isn't super well developed, so I'd rather not just randomly cast suspicions at someone without something more concrete.
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I mean honestly I found the wait more strange than suspicious, I just thought I should note it. I'm willing to accept your rationale there, it doesn't really change most of my points.
Like, I get how this could be frustrating if that's true, but looking at it from the outside you can see how that's kind of indistinguishable from potential models like
1. A Mind Eater trying to avoid getting caught overly skating after getting through under the radar when they were alone (or had 1 teammate I guess) D1.
2. A demon trying to coast but then getting more active when they see an angle where they can direct night actions, chain lynches, and find something to monofocus on that doesn't impact their team.
And some others that I can't really necessarily think of right now that aren'
I'm interested in hearing it. I won't ask you to commit everything to it right now, but when a decent chunk of the argument is that your content often feels a little coasty, some unique content, even if it isn't some detailed argument, would be helpful.
Cyricubed
Residant Bird.
- Location
- United States
- Pronouns
- He/Him/Birb
To be fair, sometimes you have to work on not having something more concrete. Hell the shade of another Emp was half of what prompted me into using the HH to the amazing discovery of oh hey...they actually were an Emp
(Is it wrong...that part of me wishes I hadn't used it...if only to see the chaos that followed)
Archeo Lumiere
The Prince's Archivist
- Location
- Lumiose City, Kalos
- Pronouns
- He/Him/They/Them
Yo, I just woke up, and was just heading to sleep when I made my last post. Gimme a bit to wake up and I'll check in with this.
Nanimani
Probably listening to music
- Pronouns
- She/Her
This would be really, really dumb, btw. Scum would already know, after all.
- Location
- Academy City
- Pronouns
- They
Right, I agree. Problem is, the other transportation not being revealed has me equally disbelieving that it could be town, and my read on cyric hasn't changed, although maybe it should honestly.
1. Swapped Person C
1. Swapped Person D
3. Cyric?
4. Demons not Killing?
5. Happerry?
I dunno at this point.
- Location
- Hell
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Like, it is just as if not more likely that I'm just a townie who's 'coasting.' Calling a lack of 'unique content' something suspicious is well and truly ridiculous. Like, how many people do we have that have barely talked at all? It seems strange to focus on me when I've largely done nothing out of the ordinary. If that in and of itself is somehow suspicious to you, I don't really know what I could possibly do to persuade you because your argument at this point is predicated on me performing behaviors that aren't inherently suspicious. You're basically saying my posting is suspicious because it's too normal. For what it's worth, I was suspicious of QTesseract because of various feelings I picked up, and also the whole 'here's information but I'm not going to tell you were I got it and you should all just believe me' which is just not exactly something I'm gonna accept right off the bat.
Nanimani
Probably listening to music
- Pronouns
- She/Her
The question is why the swapper wouldn't reveal at this point. Not wanting to make a target of themselves only goes so far.
Nanimani
Probably listening to music
- Pronouns
- She/Her
So, roles are Emp, Human, Mind Eater, Oracle, and Demon.
This leaves other races, possessed races, Fiends, Ents, Imps, freedom fighters, knights, and Ents and those who hunt them. Let's look at the sets.
And rule out Kleptomaniac.
Beta Set 1: Ent, Crusading Lumberjack Dwarf.:
Beta Set 2: Human Knight, Exploding Imp.
Beta Set 3: Mind Eater, Fiend.
Beta Set 4: Ent, Dark Elf.
Beta Set 5: Ent, Undying Orc Lord.
Beta Set 6: Ent, Demon.
Beta Set 7: Ent, Gnome Kleptomaniac.
Beta Set 8: Gnome Kleptomaniac, Gnome Kleptomaniac.
Beta Set 9: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter.
Beta Set 10: Human Oracle, Imp.
2 roles: 1, 4, 5
1 role: 2, 3, 6, 9, 10
So at least one of them is coming from the beta branch.
Set B1: Human, Human, Demon, Demon.
Set B2: Human Knight, Orc, Possessed Elf, Demon.
Set B3: Human Knight, Orc, Possessed Dwarf, Demon.
Set B4: Human Knight, Orc, Possessed Gnome, Demon.
Set B5: Human Knight, Elf, Possessed Orc, Demon.
Set B6: Human Knight, Elf, Possessed Gnome, Demon.
Set B7: Human Knight, Elf, Possessed Dwarf, Demon.
Set B8: Human Knight, Gnome, Possessed Orc, Demon.
Set B9: Human Knight, Gnome, Possessed Elf, Demon.
Set B10: Human Knight, Gnome, Possessed Dwarf, Demon.
Set B11: Human Knight, Dwarf, Possessed Orc, Demon.
Set B12: Human Knight, Dwarf, Possessed Elf, Demon.
Set B13: Human Knight, Dwarf, Possessed Gnome, Demon.
Set B14: Human, Human, Possessed Orc, Demon.
Set B15: Human, Human, Possessed Elf, Demon.
Set B16: Human, Human, Possessed Gnome, Demon.
Set B17: Human, Human, Possessed Dwarf, Demon.
Set A1: Human, Human, Human, Human.
Set A2: Human, Human, Human, Orc.
Set A3: Human, Human, Human, Dwarf.
Set A4: Human, Human, Human, Gnome.
Set A5: Human, Human, Human, Elf.
Set A6: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Orc, Dwarf.
Set A7: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Orc, Gnome.
Set A8: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Orc, Elf.
Set A9: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Dwarf, Gnome.
Set A10: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Dwarf, Elf.
Set A11: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Gnome, Elf.
Set A12: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Human, Imp.
These can have three roles not in at most, and that only if they are the same as the Beta roles
For example, Sets A6-A11 are only possible if Beta Set 9 is picked.
Bigger thing: The only sets that don't add 3 from the Bs are 1 and 14-17. Those are... only possible with the Beta branch being 2. So we can probably rule them out. So we know that the B selection is giving us a Demon, possibly two, as well as exactly two Humans.
Set B1: Human, Human, Demon, Demon.
Set B14: Human, Human, Possessed Orc, Demon.
Set B15: Human, Human, Possessed Elf, Demon.
Set B16: Human, Human, Possessed Gnome, Demon.
Set B17: Human, Human, Possessed Dwarf, Demon.
One of these. Chances of a Possessed other race existing are one in five. Well, higher, because set A also exists. Just can't narrow that down as much.
At any rate, they add either 1 or 0 roles. I'm... I'm going to go out on a limb and say there aren't only two Humans, either. That seems unlikely to me.
Set A1: Human, Human, Human, Human.
Set A2: Human, Human, Human, Orc.
Set A3: Human, Human, Human, Dwarf.
Set A4: Human, Human, Human, Gnome.
Set A5: Human, Human, Human, Elf.
So we're left with one of these as an A. Now, either we take one of the Betas with two, one of the 1s, and one of the ones with other races, or one of the Betas with 1 and both sets have one with one of the other races. Do you agree with my evaluation here?
This leaves other races, possessed races, Fiends, Ents, Imps, freedom fighters, knights, and Ents and those who hunt them. Let's look at the sets.
And rule out Kleptomaniac.
Beta Set 1: Ent, Crusading Lumberjack Dwarf.:
Beta Set 2: Human Knight, Exploding Imp.
Beta Set 3: Mind Eater, Fiend.
Beta Set 4: Ent, Dark Elf.
Beta Set 5: Ent, Undying Orc Lord.
Beta Set 6: Ent, Demon.
Beta Set 7: Ent, Gnome Kleptomaniac.
Beta Set 8: Gnome Kleptomaniac, Gnome Kleptomaniac.
Beta Set 9: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter.
Beta Set 10: Human Oracle, Imp.
2 roles: 1, 4, 5
1 role: 2, 3, 6, 9, 10
So at least one of them is coming from the beta branch.
Set B1: Human, Human, Demon, Demon.
Set B2: Human Knight, Orc, Possessed Elf, Demon.
Set B3: Human Knight, Orc, Possessed Dwarf, Demon.
Set B4: Human Knight, Orc, Possessed Gnome, Demon.
Set B5: Human Knight, Elf, Possessed Orc, Demon.
Set B6: Human Knight, Elf, Possessed Gnome, Demon.
Set B7: Human Knight, Elf, Possessed Dwarf, Demon.
Set B8: Human Knight, Gnome, Possessed Orc, Demon.
Set B9: Human Knight, Gnome, Possessed Elf, Demon.
Set B10: Human Knight, Gnome, Possessed Dwarf, Demon.
Set B11: Human Knight, Dwarf, Possessed Orc, Demon.
Set B12: Human Knight, Dwarf, Possessed Elf, Demon.
Set B13: Human Knight, Dwarf, Possessed Gnome, Demon.
Set B14: Human, Human, Possessed Orc, Demon.
Set B15: Human, Human, Possessed Elf, Demon.
Set B16: Human, Human, Possessed Gnome, Demon.
Set B17: Human, Human, Possessed Dwarf, Demon.
Set A1: Human, Human, Human, Human.
Set A2: Human, Human, Human, Orc.
Set A3: Human, Human, Human, Dwarf.
Set A4: Human, Human, Human, Gnome.
Set A5: Human, Human, Human, Elf.
Set A6: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Orc, Dwarf.
Set A7: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Orc, Gnome.
Set A8: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Orc, Elf.
Set A9: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Dwarf, Gnome.
Set A10: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Dwarf, Elf.
Set A11: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Gnome, Elf.
Set A12: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Human, Imp.
These can have three roles not in at most, and that only if they are the same as the Beta roles
For example, Sets A6-A11 are only possible if Beta Set 9 is picked.
Bigger thing: The only sets that don't add 3 from the Bs are 1 and 14-17. Those are... only possible with the Beta branch being 2. So we can probably rule them out. So we know that the B selection is giving us a Demon, possibly two, as well as exactly two Humans.
Set B1: Human, Human, Demon, Demon.
Set B14: Human, Human, Possessed Orc, Demon.
Set B15: Human, Human, Possessed Elf, Demon.
Set B16: Human, Human, Possessed Gnome, Demon.
Set B17: Human, Human, Possessed Dwarf, Demon.
One of these. Chances of a Possessed other race existing are one in five. Well, higher, because set A also exists. Just can't narrow that down as much.
At any rate, they add either 1 or 0 roles. I'm... I'm going to go out on a limb and say there aren't only two Humans, either. That seems unlikely to me.
Set A1: Human, Human, Human, Human.
Set A2: Human, Human, Human, Orc.
Set A3: Human, Human, Human, Dwarf.
Set A4: Human, Human, Human, Gnome.
Set A5: Human, Human, Human, Elf.
So we're left with one of these as an A. Now, either we take one of the Betas with two, one of the 1s, and one of the ones with other races, or one of the Betas with 1 and both sets have one with one of the other races. Do you agree with my evaluation here?